Shayne O'Cass' tips, race-by-race analysis for 2025 Winter Cup Day at Rosehill Gardens
Form expert Shayne O'Cass analyses Saturday's 10-race card at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday, presenting his race-by-race tips and analysis.
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Reckoning on the blinkers will be a big help to ARISTOCRAT (9). His two runs have been infinitely better than they read on paper and they actually don't read too bad as it is given the performance and potential and those around him like Agarwood and Providence, not to mentioned Regulated Affair. The Kermadec son, STATE OPERA (13), was $151 into $34 at one point on debut and ran more like a $34 shot than a $151 pop. He was coming again on the line in that midweeker at Warwick Farm. At home this time.
Bet: Aristocrat to win, State Opera each-way
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RED RAG TO BULLS (18) has done more good than bad in nine starts (eight if you scrub the Failed to Finish at Scone first-up). Beat a subsequent winner, easily, 11 days ago. In a good place. SUPER NORWEST (6) is a Highway veteran. His record in the Highways is 10 goes; one win, three seconds and a third. This is not the hardest one he's run in either. Last week's Highway winning trainer Luke Pepper has HELL OF A FOX (5) aiming for four on the bounce.
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RACE 3: MIDWAY HANDICAP 1200m
SILENTSAR (2) has some very deep form dating all the way back to his two-year-old days. He was second to Koshu at start two, fifth to Osipneko and Madam Pommery after that. First-up numbers read well as do his numbers at the track and the trip. Trialled well alongside World Alliance the other day. THE EXTREME CAT (4) was '00' in two runs in March and April but there were the Provincial Qualifier Heat and Wildcard. Still was pretty awful to be honest but the trial on May 7 was anything but. This looks well within the capabilities of EVERYONE'S A STAR (9).
Bet: Silentsar to win
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CARRAZANA (9) looked like he could turn out to be another good horse for Waller, Morgan and Devine after his first two runs. There looks like there have been a few behind the scenes issues with this classically-bred now four-year-old gelding. Given where he is at in terms of absenteeism from racing, the market will say yeah or nay. Ditto that last bit for PRETTY POWERFUL (10). Form's there for all to see, but how about this breeding buffs; her dam threw 10 foals, all of them raced, all of them won and half of them won stakes races.
Bet: Carrazana to place
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CODETTA (2) is a very valuable horse given she is a Nicconi half-sister to Riff Rocket. This Debbie Kepitis-owned three-year-old has run eight times for Michael Freedman, winning three and finishing runner-up three. She was $8.50 into $5.50 first-up and only needed another 50 or 100m and she beats King's Secret (who runs here also). USEAPIN (13) has raced three times first-up. One of them was a win and the other two were actually very good runs behind More Territories and then Aleiana.
Bet: Codetta to win, Usapin each-way
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AGITA (13), I've said it before and say it every time, shaped as a Derby horse early on for AJC Derby-winning trainer David Payne but for one (good) reason or another, never got the opportunity. Here is now, first-up, at home over 1500m with 54.5kg. There's four good reasons why he can and there is no good reason why he can't. The $8 the place looks good value. CHICA MOJITO (2) has won one from 18 but the fact that she has placed eight times makes her $3.10 place price somewhat appealing.
Bet: Agita each-way, Chica Mojota to place
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RACE 7: CAPTIVANT @ KIA ORA HANDICAP 1300m
TESTATOR SILENS (1) has finished sixth in both runs this preparation and in quite solid company (Dragonstone, In Flight, Storm The Ramparts, etc). His last 150m in both were eye-catching to put it mildly. Loves Rosehill. SNACK BAR (11) has raced at Rosehill three times for a third to Autumn Glow, third to Lady Shenandoah and fifth in the Tapp-Craig. Drawn to get every chance. UNSTOPABULL (7) is close to a peak. HIGH BLUE SEA (4) trialled well.
Bet: Testator Silens each-way, quinella 1, 11, box trifecta 1, 4, 7, 11
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Context time. I was a bit keen on MORMONA (9) in the Lord Mayors Cup here two weeks ago. The grey was rock solid at $41 and ended up running seventh of 14 beaten six lengths, keeping in mind that Touristic won by two lengths. This grey from France is a quality stayer and is crying out for 2400m (and more). Clearly TOURISTIC (3) is easy to like and hard to knock. Respect market on CHANGINGOFTHEGUARD (1).
Bet: Mormona each-way, Daily Double 1st Leg 9, 2nd Leg 13
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RACE 9: TAB HANDICAP 2000m
KIND WORDS (10) has been the 'next time' horse in, and after, every one of her six runs this time in but just hasn't converted yet. To be fair to the mare, she went close at Scone on Dark Jewel Day and barriers have played their part too. Very fit and maybe 2000m does the trick. Sounds odd to say a 13th of 14 was 'good', okay maybe not 'good' but the run of LENAPE VIBE (15) here a fortnight ago was passable given that was 1500m and this is 2000m which is more her go.
Bet: Kind Words, Lenape Vibe each-way
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MISS JENNIFER (13) is a big time blue blood. Her fourth dam is Toltrice who was a champion on the track and a broodmare gem in the breeding shed. As for Miss Jennifer herself, she is one of those horses that is very much reliant on outside factors given her slow early/fast late pattern but it when the stars align - boom. Ditto all that for TOTOKA (12) only double. Don't know if she'll be winning but I bet she'll challenge for the fastest last 400m on the whole card.
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