logo
Gold holds gains

Gold holds gains

NEW YORK: Gold prices rose on Wednesday, helped by cooler-than-expected inflation data that strengthened investors' conviction the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates by September.
Spot gold was up 0.5% to $3,337.49 an ounce as of 0909 ET (1309 GMT) after rising as much as 1% earlier in the session. US gold futures rose 0.5% to $3,358.80. Data showed the Consumer Price Index increased 0.1% last month after rising 0.2% in April. In the 12 months through May, the CPI advanced 2.4% after gaining 2.3% in April. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast CPI climbing 0.2% and increasing 2.5% year-on-year.
'The surprise low print in core CPI has goosed the entire precious metals complex higher as yields and the dollar fall. The hope is that it will bring a Fed cut that much sooner,' said Tai Wong, an independent metals trader. Traders are currently pricing in a 68% chance of an interest rate cut in September by the US central bank, according to CME FedWatch tool.
On the trade front, US President Donald Trump said the US deal with China is done, with Beijing to supply magnets and rare earth minerals, while the US will allow Chinese students at its colleges and universities. Trump said the deal is subject to final approval by him and President Xi Jinping.
The market's focus is now on the US Producer Price Index data, due on Thursday before the Fed's June 17-18 meeting. 'The market will want to see gold and silver take out recent highs, $3,403 and $36.90 respectively, as a signal to charge higher. If we don't rally strongly on surprisingly good data, then it may signal a short-term correction,' Wong added.
Spot silver eased 0.7% to $36.32 per ounce. Platinum rose 3.8% to $1,268.12, its highest level since 2021. Palladium added 1.1% to $1,072.25.

Orange background

Try Our AI Features

Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:

Comments

No comments yet...

Related Articles

Inflation slowdown: relief or a temporary pause?
Inflation slowdown: relief or a temporary pause?

Business Recorder

time36 minutes ago

  • Business Recorder

Inflation slowdown: relief or a temporary pause?

Inflation in Pakistan has plunged from 28.3 percent in January 2024 to 2.4 percent in January, 2025 year-on-year, presenting a dramatic shift from a record high of 38 percent in May 2023. This drop offers a respite to millions who have struggled to sustain their livelihoods with this high inflation rate. Is this relief a sustainable or a temporary pause before structural cracks re-emerge? The State Bank of Pakistan's (SBP's) report, in its latest assessment, suggests this slowdown appears a fragile win, driven by short-term factors rather than deep structural reforms. The inflation slowdown presents a complex story. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) basket, which tracks price changes, is primarily composed of food and non-food items. Food inflation, which spiked to 38.5 percent in August 2023, has now decreased to 1.8 percent percent. Several factors explain this dramatic decline including favourable weather conditions, global decline in commodity prices, and government intervention in controlling prices of essential food items, particularly staples. In addition, the non-food component of inflation, particularly energy prices, a key contributor to the CPI basket, has also declined. A global decline in oil prices has contributed to lower energy prices, helping to ease the inflationary pressure. Core inflation (Non-Food Non-Energy) has also declined, necessitating monetary easing. Between 2022 and mid of 2023, the SBP raised its policy rate to a record 22% - a very tight stance. This discouraged borrowing and cooled consumption, reducing inflation to 11.2 percent in May 2024 from 38.5 percent during May 2023. Apart from the above short-term macroeconomic indicators, the IMF-led reforms under the USD 7 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF), which was agreed upon in July 2024, also seem to have played a significant role in this slowdown. One significant measure was returning to a market-determined exchange rate, which, after an initial depreciation in rupee, stabilised during the last quarter of 2023, reducing high import cost-induced inflationary pressure. Another significant reform was the aligning of energy tariffs with energy cost, minimising subsidies that had previously been draining fiscal space. These measures together allowed for better resource allocation and eased price pressures over time. Most importantly, the key statistical factor at play is the base effect. Inflation is measured year-on-year, meaning current prices are compared to those in the same month during the previous year. The astronomical price hikes during the last two years, fuelled by global commodity prices hikes and local missteps, are creating an illusion of disinflation. Therefore, even a modest increase in prices in 2024 can appear as a sharp disinflation in statistical terms. This does not imply that the prices are falling; rather, they are rising at a slower pace than an already elevated high baseline of 38 percent in 2023 and 11.3 percent in 2024. Take, for instance, the striking decrease in inflation to 1.5 percent in February 2025, which reflects not only improved macroeconomic management but also a statistical quirk. Imagine a dozen eggs jumping from PKR 100 to PKR 200 last year; an increase to PKR 210 would now seem like a bargain by comparison. So, is this relief or a temporary pause? If we turn to data and evidence, then it would be a temporary respite. The IMF's push for fiscal consolidation and energy reforms has eased the inflationary pressures, alongside factors like oil prices and base effects. However, the analysts caution that this slowdown rests on shaky ground — external loans and decline in import costs, not real economic growth. For now, Pakistanis may breathe easier, but the spectre of inflation's return looms large unless bold, homegrown reforms take root. The government policies now will shape the future inflation trajectory. Take, for example, the global decline in oil prices. If the government passes the savings on to consumers by reducing domestic oil prices, it would deepen the deflationary momentum, offering businesses and households some relief. However, if it chooses to raise the petroleum levy — as recently announced - it may reverse the current deflationary momentum. Moreover, the decline in food prices also poses future challenges. Lower profits may discourage farmers from cultivating certain crops, potentially reducing supply and causing a resurgence of cost-push inflation in future food prices. For example, as reported by the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), wheat cultivation area is expected to shrink post government removal of support price since May 2024. Cotton production is also projected to fall to 5.2 million bales in 2024-25, from 7.5 million, jeopardizing textile exports. In conclusion, without meaningful structural reforms, any relief from inflation will be fleeting. Not to forget the sobering part — analysts warn that inflation may rise again as the base-year effect fades. Copyright Business Recorder, 2025

Trump repeats offer of mediation on Kashmir
Trump repeats offer of mediation on Kashmir

Express Tribune

timean hour ago

  • Express Tribune

Trump repeats offer of mediation on Kashmir

US President Donald Trump gestures, as he departs for Pennsylvania, on the South Lawn of the White House in Washington, DC, U.S., May 30, 2025. Photo: Reuters US President Donald Trump on Thursday again claimed credit for easing recent India-Pakistan tensions, saying he prevented a potential nuclear war by using trade pressure and direct diplomacy. "I stopped a war between India and Pakistan, and I stopped it with trade," Trump told reporters after a bill signing event. "Pakistan, now, it was their turn to hit, and eventually they're going to go nuclear." Trump said he made personal calls to both Indian and Pakistani leaders at the height of tensions. "I called each leader, I respect them greatly. I talked about trade. I said, but you're not trading with us if you're going to go to war, if you're going to start throwing nuclear weapons around." "They understood it exactly. They stopped," he added. He praised his is role in preventing casualties, saying: "I stopped that war with phone calls and trade." "And India is here right now negotiating a trade deal, and Pakistan is coming, I think, next week," he added. In response to a question, Trump said, "We're going to get them together. I told them, India and Pakistan they have a longtime rivalry over Kashmir. I told them 'I can solve anything.' "I will be your arbitrator. I will be your arbitrator. I can solve anything."

Israel appears ready to attack Iran
Israel appears ready to attack Iran

Express Tribune

timean hour ago

  • Express Tribune

Israel appears ready to attack Iran

US President Donald Trump said on Thursday that an Israeli strike on Iran "could very well happen" but he would not call it imminent and that he would prefer to avoid conflict with Tehran and reach a peaceful solution over its nuclear program. Trump's comments came after the UN nuclear watchdog's board of governors declared Iran in breach of its non-proliferation obligations and Tehran announced counter-measures, as an Iranian official said a "friendly country" had warned it of a potential Israeli attack. US and Iranian officials will hold a sixth round of talks on Tehran's escalating uranium enrichment programme in Oman on Sunday, according to US and Omani officials. But security concerns have risen since Trump said on Wednesday American personnel were being moved out of the region because "it could be a dangerous place" and that Tehran would not be allowed to develop a nuclear weapon. Washington is concerned that Israel could take military action against Iran in the coming days, US officials said on condition of anonymity, despite Trump's recent warning to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu against such a strike while US diplomacy continues with Tehran. US intelligence indicates that Israel has been making preparations to hit Iran's nuclear installations. But one US official said there was no sign that Israel had made a final decision. "I don't want to say imminent, but it looks like it's something that could very well happen," Trump told reporters at a White House event, adding Iran could not be allowed to develop a nuclear weapon. "I'd love to avoid the conflict," he said. "Iran's going to have to negotiate a little bit tougher, meaning they're going to have to give us something they're not willing to give us right now." Security in the Middle East has already been destabilised by spillover effects of the Gaza war between Israel and Hamas. Trump has threatened to bomb Iran if the nuclear talks do not yield a deal and said he has become less confident Tehran will agree to stop enriching uranium. The Islamic Republic wants a lifting of US sanctions imposed on it since 2018. Earlier on Thursday, Trump expressed frustration that oil prices had risen amid supply concerns arising from potential conflict in the Middle East. With Washington offering little explanation for its security concerns, some foreign diplomats suggested that the evacuation of personnel and US officials anonymously raising the spectre of an Israeli attack on Iran, could be a ploy to ratchet up pressure on Tehran for concessions at the negotiating table. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said that even if the country's nuclear facilities were destroyed by bombs they would be rebuilt, state media reported on Thursday. The International Atomic Energy Agency's Board of Governors declared Iran in breach of its non-proliferation obligations for the first time in almost 20 years, raising the prospect of reporting it to the UN Security Council. The step is the culmination of a series of stand-offs between the IAEA and Iran since Trump pulled the US out of a nuclear deal between Tehran and major powers in 2018 during his first term, after which that accord unravelled. An IAEA official said Iran had responded to the 35-nation board's declaration by informing the UN watchdog that it plans to open a third uranium enrichment plant.

DOWNLOAD THE APP

Get Started Now: Download the App

Ready to dive into the world of global news and events? Download our app today from your preferred app store and start exploring.
app-storeplay-store