Iran's Islamic regime is a dangerous wounded predator & they could see Israel's allies as soft targets
THE Israeli air force and Mossad spy agency have left Iran's Islamist leadership on the ropes.
Yesterday's extraordinary mix of targeted assassinations of Iran's military and nuclear masterminds and heavy blows to the country's air defences will be a textbook case for study in military academies for decades to come.
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The operation grew out of how it knocked out Iran's proxy allies, Hezbollah, in nearby Lebanon last autumn.
Back then, an astonishing mix of exploding pagers and precision bombing strikes paralysed Iran's main proxy terrorist ally, other than Hamas in Gaza.
Israel has a long record as the master of the surprise attack.
The current crisis echoes how it initiated the Six-Day War in June, 1967.
Then, Israeli bombers destroyed Egypt's air force on the ground at dawn on the first day. Five days later, the Israeli Army stood along Egypt's Suez Canal and on Syria's Golan Heights and captured Jerusalem and the West Bank from Jordan.
Dramatic seizure
But that's also where today's conflict is very different from the one 58 years ago.
Israel's planes and spies have hit Iran hard but the Israeli Army is not going to repeat 1967's dramatic seizure of enemy territory.
Israel's soldiers already have their hands full fighting Hamas in Gaza and keeping control of the Palestinians in the West Bank. Israeli tanks are not going to roll east to Tehran.
That means that the Ayatollah and his surviving henchmen — provided they keep control of Iran — will remain a threat to Israel.
The Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has made it clear that he is determined to neuter Iran's nuclear project to stop it getting an atomic bomb.
Israel launches strike on Iran as explosions rock Tehran and state of emergency declared over nuclear threats
But he argues that regime change in Tehran is the only way to kill that threat, not an Israeli occupation.
Before the Islamic Revolution in 1979, the Shah's Iran was friendly to Israel and shipped oil there.
Optimists hope that situation could return if the brutal regime of the Ayatollahs collapses in humiliation because it could not deter the Israeli strikes.
Syria's new government since the fall of Iran's ally, President Assad, last December, has been reaching out to the West and turned a blind eye to Israeli overflights to attack Iran yesterday.
It's possible a revolution against the Islamic Republic in Iran could lead the country back to a pro-Western and pro-Israeli position.
But that is not guaranteed.
So long as the Islamist regime remains in place in Iran, strikes by Israel and counterattacks by Iran can be expected.
Friday's dramatic developments should not delude us that this war is virtually over.
Iran might have spent yesterday waiting for nightfall before trying to hit back with its missiles under the cover of darkness, so it would be harder for Israeli bombers to locate their movement to launch sites.
But it is possible that Israel's mix of decapitation of key military planners and damage to Iran's weapons stockpiles has weakened Iran hugely, but not yet made it surrender.
Friday's dramatic developments should not delude us that this war is virtually over.
Israel has been fighting a covert war of sabotage and assassination against Iran's nuclear and missile programmes for a long time.
The world faces a much bigger crisis since the latest explosive conflict between Israel and Iran. And no one knows how to handle the shock waves.
Only a few weeks ago, a stockpile of raw materials for Iran's rocket fuel which had been delivered from China went up in smoke.
Such trade reminds us that Iran is not absolutely friendless.
Other pariah states could help it in this crisis.
Russia, in particular, is a military partner.
It has bought thousands of Iranian Shahed drones to attack Ukraine.
Now Iran's drone supplies to Russia will dry up as the Ayatollah keeps them for his war with Israel.
But the plus side for Putin is that oil prices are soaring, helping him to pay for his war on Ukraine while American and European attention is distracted in the Middle East.
Even if Russia does not get involved, its vast territory could be a useful route for Iran to get help from an actual nuclear-armed rogue state, North Korea.
Will North Korea now supply Tehran with weapons, even a ready-made atomic bomb from its own stockpile?
Israel's nuclear nightmare is not over just yet.
Wounded predator
The Israeli surprise attack has also killed off any American or European ability to act as Middle East mediators.
President Trump had originally tried to keep nuclear talks going with Iran but now he has come all-in behind Israel.
He has posted on his Truth social media platform about America's willingness to supply even more powerful weapons to Israel as it pursues an air campaign to degrade Iran's military power.
Israel's other Western friends, including Britain could also be seen as 'soft targets' by Iranian agents.
Iran's Islamic regime is a dangerous wounded predator.
It cannot defeat Israel, but it could go mad and unleash terrorism, even using chemical weapons which its industries can make much more easily than nuclear weapons.
The world faces a much bigger crisis since the latest explosive conflict between Israel and Iran. And no one knows how to handle the shock waves.
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Reuters
19 minutes ago
- Reuters
Yemen's Houthis target Israel with ballistic missiles in coordination with Iran
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Sky News
40 minutes ago
- Sky News
Israel-Iran live: Trump issues warning to Iran - as Tehran and Israel exchange strikes overnight
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The Herald Scotland
an hour ago
- The Herald Scotland
Israel and US perilously ‘gaming' over the fate of entire Middle East
But those were precisely the words posted by US Republican Senator Lindsay Graham on social media on Friday shortly after Israel launched its massive air strikes against Iran, targeting its nuclear programme, military facilities and killing two of the Islamic Republic's top military commanders. Graham - a Trump ally - was far from alone, with at least three other senior Republican politicians using the exact words; 'Please join me in praying for Israel' in their statements. Not to be outdone, US House Speaker Mike Johnson was also at pains to make clear that Israel's actions were justified, declaring on social media, 'Israel IS right – and has a right – to defend itself!' Many of course would choose to differ, arguing with some justification that Israel's attack was unprovoked and in clear violation of the international law as enshrined in the United Nations Charter and of anything that can be labelled a rules-based international order. In making their case, the same people might also point to the fact that today this is now almost par for the course when it comes to Israel. They might argue too that by embarking on ethnic cleansing in Gaza and persistently using excessive force in serial attacks on Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and the occupied West Bank, it's Israel itself that currently constitutes the biggest danger to the region. It was at around 3.30am Iran time on Friday that Israel launched at least six waves of air strikes in what it is calling Operation Rising Lion. In the wake of the strikes, Iran's state news agency confirmed that several senior military figures including Major General Hossein Salami, head of the elite Revolutionary Guards, were killed. (Image: First-responders gather outside a building that was hit by an Israeli strike in Tehran) Scientists killed Iran's armed forces chief of staff, Major General Mohammad Bagheri, was also killed, state television reported. Mohammad Mehdi Tehranchi, a prominent physics professor, and Fereydoon Abbasi, a former head of Iran's atomic organisation, also died, the state news agency confirmed Israel's wave of attacks also struck command-and-control centres, ballistic-missile bases and air-defence batteries. Some of the attacks are reported to have been carried out by operatives from Israel's Mossad intelligence agency and the electronic surveillance and targeting commando, military Unit 8200, who reportedly located key Iranian commanders and two leading nuclear scientists with precise accuracy. Israel also claims the operatives installed swarms of explosive drones deep inside Iran to neutralise air defence systems near Tehran. But aside from decapitating Iran's military leadership and missile production facilities, the prime target was the country's nuclear facilities at sites like Natanz and Fordow. Shortly after the attacks, social media showed footage of smoke rising from the uranium-enrichment plant near the city of Natanz about 150 miles south of the capital Tehran. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), a UN watchdog, later confirmed the plant was 'among targets,' adding that it was in contact with Iranian authorities over radiation levels. Read more 'Messianic vision' Israel arming Gaza's crime gangs is certain to backfire badly 'Stakes could not be higher' Poland's election is a pivotal moment for all of Europe Scotland's oldest international medical charity is bringing hope to Himalayas Trump's sledgehammer politics are wreaking havoc in every sphere both home and away For three decades Netanyahu has spoken of the need to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons which he says poses an 'existential' threat to Israel. Israel has announced that the operation to knock out Iran's nuclear programme is likely to last four or five days. But the fear is that Israel has opened a new phase of war across the Middle East that has seen nearly two years of consistent conflict on a scale not witnessed in decades. Putting aside the fact that an escalation is now inevitable, predicting what will happen next is more tricky. But as Amir Tibon, diplomatic correspondent of the Israeli daily newspaper Haaretz has highlighted, three questions will determine the pace and trajectory of events to come. The first of these is just how much damage did Israel's attack inflict? The second is what will be the nature and extent of Iran's retaliation? And finally, and perhaps most significantly, how will America be involved? Regarding the first of these questions, then certainly the killing of Iran's military chief of staff, Maj. Gen. Bagheri, and Maj. Gen Salami as well as several nuclear scientists and destroying swathes of Iran's air defence systems is unprecedented. (Image: People look beyond a barrier toward buildings heavily damaged after an overnight strike in Israel) Regime change Some reports also suggest that Ali Shamkhani, a national security adviser to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's supreme leader, who has oversight of the nuclear programme, was injured. This indicates Israel has struck parts of Iran's political leadership too, signalling that among its objectives may in fact be regime change. Netanyahu suggested as much when on Friday in a speech he told Iranians that he hoped Israel's ongoing military operation will 'clear the path for you to achieve your freedom.' What is certain about the strikes however is that they pile pressure on an Iranian military infrastructure already degraded from previous Israeli strikes. Last year, Israel attacked Iran using air-launched ballistic missiles from far beyond the reach of Iran's most advanced air defences, the Russian supplied S-300 surface to air missiles. These Israeli strikes severely degraded Iran's most advanced air defences, particularly the S-300, and it is not clear what remains. But it's the question of how much damage Israel has been able to inflict on Iran's main nuclear sites that will be uppermost in the minds of the Israeli leadership right now. Israel on Friday said it had struck Natanz and 'damaged' the underground area of the site, a multistorey enrichment area with centrifuges, electrical rooms and other infrastructure. But both of Iran's nuclear facilities have been built to withstand the heaviest of strikes, buried as they are deep below mountains and under dozens of feet of reinforced concrete. Experts have previously estimated that even America's largest 30,000-pound 'bunker-buster' bomb, the GBU-57, which cannot be carried by Israeli warplanes, would need to be used many times on the same point for any significant damage to be done. The US has thus far refused Israeli requests to provide the biggest bomb in its arsenal, but reports last month indicate that the US sent fresh supplies of smaller bunker busting bombs such as the CBU-28 which the Israeli air force is capable of carrying. These may have enabled Israel so far to have targeted the entrances, tunnels and ventilation shafts of Natanz or Fordow in an attempt to put them out of action. Which brings us to the question of Iran's capacity to retaliate. Overnight Friday into Saturday Iran hit back at Israel with retaliatory missile strikes. Israeli paramedics said yesterday that at least three people had been killed and dozens injured by Iran's overnight salvos, with missiles slipping through the country's air defences and destroying buildings in Tel Aviv and Rishon Le Zion. But as The Economist magazine has highlighted, Iran faces few good options in the scale and type of retaliation it can mount. 'If its response is too weak, it will not deter Israel; too strong, and it might draw America into the war. That would only compound the threat to the regime, which has not looked so vulnerable since the 1980s, when it fought a long war against Saddam Hussein's Iraq,' The Economist's assessment concluded, a view shared by other analysts. As it stands, Iran's most likely strategy will be to carry out further attacks using missiles and drones in the hope of depleting Israeli stocks of interceptor missiles and then send in its more advanced and harder-to-shot-down ballistic missiles. (Image: Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu) No secret Israel's resupply of interceptors has become an issue of late. According to a report in the Financial Times (FT), Israel Aerospace Industries, the state-owned company which makes the Arrow interceptors used to shoot down ballistic missiles, said it was having to run triple shifts to keep its production lines running at full tilt, and that it was 'no secret that we (Israel) need to replenish stocks' In the past, any retaliation would have seen Iran turn also to its proxies in the region the most formidable of which was Hezbollah, the Shia militia and political party in Lebanon that had an enormous arsenal on Israel's northern border. But Hezbollah is not the force it once was, weakened by a year of war with Israel, in which its leaders were killed and many of its missile depots destroyed. Where Iran could turn tactically towards are its other proxies in places such as Iraq, mobilising them to attack American bases there or it might be tempted to go after other US installations in the region including in Qatar and Bahrain. All of that though has enormous risks of pulling America fully into the conflict, even if as many argue, Washington as ever is already committed when it comes to defending Israel. Other risky Iranian options - long discussed by regional strategists - might include blocking or disrupting oil exports from the region by shutting down the Strait of Hormuz. Merchant shipping is still passing through the Strait, but with increased caution. Iran has previously threatened to close this critical trade route through which a quarter of global oil supplies and a third of liquefied natural gas production is transported. Even the suggestion of such a move has already sent shockwaves through global markets, and sent the price of oil soaring, something that doubtless worries the Trump administration that's keen to keep the Gulf monarchs happy. Which brings us to the most significant question of all, as to what America knew about Israel's attack and the likely extent of US involvement in the conflict? To begin with, some observers now believe that the talks between Iran and the US that were scheduled for today in Oman were little more than a ruse, lulling Iran into a false sense of security before Israel struck. Or, to put this another way, while Trump was talking about 'diplomacy' Israel was preparing its onslaught. All the signs were there that Washington knew what was coming say some diplomats and observers. Just over a week ago the US moved some anti-missile defences from Europe to Israel. It then raised threat levels to US citizens, started withdrawing personnel and their families, putting major military bases on standby, and also recently supplying bunker busting bombs such as the CBU-28 to Israel. All this too before Israel's dependence on US intelligence and air defence support. It beggars belief then attest analysts, that team Trump wasn't aware of Israel's real plans. Washington 'knew this was coming, and they helped maintain this fiction that there would be a meeting' on Sunday (today) between Iran's foreign affairs minister Abbas Araghchi and Steve Witkoff, Trump's envoy, said Aaron David Miller, a former US state department negotiator in the Middle East now at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. 'So to that degree, they co-operated with the Israelis in the ruse, and it clearly worked,' Miller added, in an interview with the FT, echoing the views of other Middle East experts. Deception Seen from an Iranian perspective, Trump's talk of giving diplomacy a chance will doubtless now be considered as the deception many now believe it was. In other words, Tehran was lured into a diplomatic trap orchestrated between Israel and the US aimed at blindsiding Iran as to the military operation that Israel had clearly long been planning with Washington's approval. If indeed that perception persists, then it's' unlikely the Iranians will return to the negotiating table any time soon. It signals too that despite so called 'differences' between Netanyahu and Trump, support for Israel in the US body politic remains - as most suspected - as strong as ever. It would also help explain the rush from some Republican politicians to send 'prayers' for Israel, as the bombs fell on Tehran while other less hawkish elements, expressed serious concern over the escalation. For Netanyahu, once regarded as a risk-averse leader, the strike on Tehran is a huge gamble. For Trump meanwhile, a president who campaigned on ending wars, not starting them, it's another arguably ignominious landmark in a shambolic foreign policy strategy. This weekend as the exchange of missile attacks between Israel and Iran intensify, it's hard to ignore the sense that both men are perilously 'gaming' over the fate of the Middle East, and that the region's future is being forged between them.
