The age of AI drone warfare is here and changing the rules
Drone warfare in Ukraine has exposed the obsolescence of traditional military systems, the need for rapid, adaptive innovation and the terrifying potential of AI-driven autonomous weapons in future conflicts. | REUTERS
By Charles Ferguson
Project Syndicate
SHARE/SAVE
Jun 18, 2025
SAN FRANCISCO –
Ukraine's June 1 assault on airbases across Russia has already ushered in a new conventional wisdom: The expensive, human-crewed weapons (tanks, planes, ships) that have long defined the world's 'advanced' militaries have been rendered obsolete by inexpensive drones. But this view is incomplete and perhaps dangerously misleading. Today's drone warfare offers sobering lessons that go far beyond the vulnerability of expensive legacy weapons; and the looming integration of AI into drone warfare will make the current situation look positively quaint.
Consider the lessons of the Ukraine war so far. First, the impact of drones goes far beyond legacy weapons. Drones have indeed rendered tanks and armored personnel carriers extremely vulnerable, so Russian ground assaults now frequently use troops on foot, motorcycles or all-terrain vehicles. But this hasn't helped, because drones are terrifyingly effective against people as well. Casualties are as high as ever — but now, drones inflict over 70% of casualties on both sides.
Drones are also effective against almost everything else. Ukraine has used drones to destroy Russian targets as varied as weapons factories, moving trains, ammunition stores, oil refineries, ships and ports. It could be worse; in fact, Ukraine has shown great restraint, considering Russia's barbaric conduct. Airport terminals, train stations at rush hour, athletic and concert stadiums, pharmaceutical factories, hospitals, schools, nursing homes — all are equally vulnerable.
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