Latest news with #ProjectSyndicate
Japan Times
13 hours ago
- Politics
- Japan Times
The age of AI drone warfare is here and changing the rules
Drone warfare in Ukraine has exposed the obsolescence of traditional military systems, the need for rapid, adaptive innovation and the terrifying potential of AI-driven autonomous weapons in future conflicts. | REUTERS By Charles Ferguson Project Syndicate SHARE/SAVE Jun 18, 2025 SAN FRANCISCO – Ukraine's June 1 assault on airbases across Russia has already ushered in a new conventional wisdom: The expensive, human-crewed weapons (tanks, planes, ships) that have long defined the world's 'advanced' militaries have been rendered obsolete by inexpensive drones. But this view is incomplete and perhaps dangerously misleading. Today's drone warfare offers sobering lessons that go far beyond the vulnerability of expensive legacy weapons; and the looming integration of AI into drone warfare will make the current situation look positively quaint. Consider the lessons of the Ukraine war so far. First, the impact of drones goes far beyond legacy weapons. Drones have indeed rendered tanks and armored personnel carriers extremely vulnerable, so Russian ground assaults now frequently use troops on foot, motorcycles or all-terrain vehicles. But this hasn't helped, because drones are terrifyingly effective against people as well. Casualties are as high as ever — but now, drones inflict over 70% of casualties on both sides. Drones are also effective against almost everything else. Ukraine has used drones to destroy Russian targets as varied as weapons factories, moving trains, ammunition stores, oil refineries, ships and ports. It could be worse; in fact, Ukraine has shown great restraint, considering Russia's barbaric conduct. Airport terminals, train stations at rush hour, athletic and concert stadiums, pharmaceutical factories, hospitals, schools, nursing homes — all are equally vulnerable. In a time of both misinformation and too much information, quality journalism is more crucial than ever. By subscribing, you can help us get the story right. SUBSCRIBE NOW
Yahoo
13-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Russia is on pace to run out of financial reserves by this fall, which would cripple war efforts, economist says
Russia could run out of liquid reserves as soon as this fall, one European economist has said. The nation's liquid reserves have dwindled to $31 billion, down from $117 billion in 2021. Limited funds could hinder Russia's further war efforts. Russia is facing a critical challenge to its war effort in 2025: The nation is quickly running out of cash, with financial reserves potentially running out before the end of the year, one European economist estimates. Anders Åslund, a Swedish economist who's a former fellow at the Atlantic Council, has said liquid reserves in Russia's National Wealth Fund could be depleted by the fall of this year. That spells trouble for the nation's military efforts in 2025, he said, given how heavily Russia has relied on its wealth fund over the past several years. Liquid reserves in the wealth fund have been drawn down from $117 billion in 2021 to $31 billion as of the end of November, Åslund noted. Yet, according to its 2025 budget, Russia is on track to spend a record $130.5 billion on defense this year. "The most critical shortage, however, is budget financing, as Russia's last liquid reserves are likely to run out in the fall of 2025," Åslund wrote in an op-ed for Project Syndicate that was published Tuesday. "Budget cuts will then become necessary. In the meantime, the war economy might also require price controls and rationing — the old Soviet sins. As the risk of a financial crash rises, Russia's imperiled economy is about to pose serious constraints on Putin's war." The rapid decline in Russia's wealth fund has been partly driven by Western sanctions, which have prevented Russia from borrowing from other countries. The nation's total foreign debt has collapsed over the past decade, with foreign borrowing down from $729 billion in 2023 to about $293 billion in September 2024, Åslund noted. Russia's limited ability to finance the war also spells bad news for the health of its economy, which is plagued by a myriad of other issues. Åslund pointed to soaring inflation, the declining value of Russia's currency, and a severe shortage of workers in the nation, all factors that economists have warned could crimp Russia's long-run growth prospects. "Russian President Vladimir Putin frequently boasts about the strength of his country's economy, claiming that Western sanctions only made it stronger (while in the same breath demanding that they be lifted). In fact, 'stagflation' — inflation combined with minimal growth — is coming to Russia," Åslund said. Other experts have also issued grim forecasts for Russia's economy, with some noting that economic weakness could interfere with Russia's ability to continue its war. Renaud Foucart, another European economist, said last year that Moscow didn't look like it could afford to either win or lose the war. The Atlantic Council recently said Russia's economic problems could force an end to its conflict with Ukraine in 2025. This story was originally published in January 2025. Read the original article on Business Insider Sign in to access your portfolio
AU Financial Review
08-05-2025
- Business
- AU Financial Review
Is America about to nuke its own currency?
Now that US President Donald Trump's tariff war is in full swing, investors worldwide are wondering what's next on his agenda for upending the global economic order. Many are turning their attention to the so-called 'Mar-a-Lago Accord' – a plan proposed by Stephen Miran, chair of Trump's Council of Economic Advisers, to coordinate with America's trading partners to weaken the dollar. At the heart of the plan is the notion that the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency is not a privilege but a costly burden that has played a big role in the deindustrialisation of the American economy. The global demand for dollars, the argument goes, drives up its value, making US-made goods more expensive than imports. That, in turn, leads to persistent trade deficits and incentivises US manufacturers to move production overseas, taking jobs with them. Project Syndicate
Yahoo
01-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
'The US economy will thrive': Why the market's 'Dr. Doom' is bullish on American exceptionalism despite Trump
Nouriel Roubini expects the US economy and markets to survive tariffs. America's tech leadership will deliver an era of high-growth through this decade, he said. The market has become a barrier against Trump's policies, Roubini said. Investors are on edge as President Donald Trump's "America First" policies seem only to diminish the appeal of US assets, but to famed economist Nouriel Roubini, the fears are overblown. That's notable for a commentator the market has referred to over the years as "Doctor Doom" for his downbeat prognostications. But Roubini sees US markets constraining Trump's most aggressive policies, and ensuring a continuation of American exceptionalism. "America's exceptional growth will survive Trump," the economist wrote in Project Syndicate, stating that the country holds a key advantage that shouldn't be discounted: technological leadership. Trump's protectionist pivot triggered foreign investors to rethink dollar and Treasury holdings, and the subsequent sell-off has sparked worries that US exceptionalism is over. Meanwhile, tariff escalations have amplified recession nerves, further cemented by Wednesday's depressing GDP and labor data. But Roubini has a brighter outlook. First, he pointed out that the market has acted as a stopgap against Trump's most extreme policy impulses, forcing him to implement a 90-day tariff pause and back off rhetoric that threatened Federal Reserve independence. Market discipline, a responsible Fed, and rising pushback amid some congressional Republicans are among the key guardrails that could help mitigate a stagflationary scenario for the US, but it's the country's tech industries that will deliver future growth. "The US economy's potential growth will approach 4% by 2030, far above the International Monetary Fund's recent estimate of 1.8%," Roubini wrote. "The reason is obvious: America is the world leader in ten of the 12 industries that will define the future, with China leading in only electric vehicles and other green tech." Separately, he noted that these industries include artificial intelligence, robotics, bio-medical research, quantum computing, and space exploration. In other words, technological advantages will keep the US relevant for international global investors, and should continue to draw in money regardless of what the next four years of trade policy bring. "Even tariffs and the resulting uncertainty have not fundamentally changed the guidance from most big tech firms, AI hyper-scalers, and others. Many are even doubling down on AI investments," Roubini added. To be sure, America's AI leadership has fallen under increased scrutiny as Chinese firms make significant progress on their own models. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang told CNBC on Wednesday that "China is not behind" when it comes to AI developments, but emphasized that this is a long-term race. Looking over the next few years, Roubini expects technological leadership to boost US growth and redistribute wealth. "After an initial period of pain, the US economy will thrive," he wrote. Read the original article on Business Insider Sign in to access your portfolio
Business Insider
01-05-2025
- Business
- Business Insider
'The US economy will thrive': Why the market's 'Dr. Doom' is bullish on American exceptionalism despite Trump
Nouriel Roubini expects the US economy and markets to survive tariffs. America's tech leadership will deliver an era of high-growth through this decade, he said. The market has become a barrier against Trump's policies, Roubini said. Investors are on edge as President Donald Trump's " America First" policies seem only to diminish the appeal of US assets, but to famed economist Nouriel Roubini, the fears are overblown. That's notable for a commentator the market has referred to over the years as "Doctor Doom" for his downbeat prognostications. But Roubini sees US markets constraining Trump's most aggressive policies, and ensuring a continuation of American exceptionalism. "America's exceptional growth will survive Trump," the economist wrote in Project Syndicate, stating that the country holds a key advantage that shouldn't be discounted: technological leadership. Trump's protectionist pivot triggered foreign investors to rethink dollar and Treasury holdings, and the subsequent sell-off has sparked worries that US exceptionalism is over. Meanwhile, tariff escalations have amplified recession nerves, further cemented by Wednesday's depressing GDP and labor data. But Roubini has a brighter outlook. First, he pointed out that the market has acted as a stopgap against Trump's most extreme policy impulses, forcing him to implement a 90-day tariff pause and back off rhetoric that threatened Federal Reserve independence. Market discipline, a responsible Fed, and rising pushback amid some congressional Republicans are among the key guardrails that could help mitigate a stagflationary scenario for the US, but it's the country's tech industries that will deliver future growth. "The US economy's potential growth will approach 4% by 2030, far above the International Monetary Fund's recent estimate of 1.8%," Roubini wrote. "The reason is obvious: America is the world leader in ten of the 12 industries that will define the future, with China leading in only electric vehicles and other green tech." Separately, he noted that these industries include artificial intelligence, robotics, bio-medical research, quantum computing, and space exploration. In other words, technological advantages will keep the US relevant for international global investors, and should continue to draw in money regardless of what the next four years of trade policy bring. "Even tariffs and the resulting uncertainty have not fundamentally changed the guidance from most big tech firms, AI hyper-scalers, and others. Many are even doubling down on AI investments," Roubini added. To be sure, America's AI leadership has fallen under increased scrutiny as Chinese firms make significant progress on their own models. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang told CNBC on Wednesday that "China is not behind" when it comes to AI developments, but emphasized that this is a long-term race. Looking over the next few years, Roubini expects technological leadership to boost US growth and redistribute wealth. "After an initial period of pain, the US economy will thrive," he wrote.
