Commodity Market Roundup- April's Top Performers and Underperformers

Globe and Mail

01-05-2025

A weaker dollar index and a decline in the long-term bond prices were competing bullish and bearish factors for commodities in April for the second consecutive month. The June dollar index moved 4.44% lower, while the June U.S. 30-year Treasury bond futures fell 0.80% to 116-26 during the fourth month of 2025. Gold was higher, reaching a new record peak, while the other precious and base metals were lower; grains were mixed with gains in corn and soybeans and a loss in CBOT wheat futures. Animal proteins rallied, while the energy sector was mostly lower. Soft commodities were mixed, with gains in cocoa, FCOJ, and Arabica coffee, while sugar and cotton prices moved lower.
The only double-digit percentage gains were in cocoa and FCOJ futures and Bitcoin. Gold reached a new record high in April for the fourth consecutive month. Lumber, crude oil, oil products, and natural gas posted double-digit percentage losses for the month ending on Wednesday, April 30. Stocks and cryptocurrencies were lower in April.
New highs in gold- Volatility in copper
Gold's ascent continued in April as investors and traders moved to the precious metal as a safe asset.
The monthly chart shows gold's rally, which took the price over the $3,500 level to a $3,509.90 high. Gold closed March at just under the $3,320 level, significantly higher than the closing level on March 31, 2025.
Meanwhile, copper experienced wild price volatility in April.
The monthly chart shows that COMEX copper futures fell from the record high of $5.3700 in March to $4.03 per pound in April. Copper held just above its critical technical support level.
As I mentioned in the March Barchart commodity roundup, ' one factor impacting copper prices is the Trump administration's tariff plans. These trade barriers have tightened futures markets, causing metals to move from Europe and other locations to the U.S. ' While COMEX futures reached a record high in March, LME three-month copper forwards did not reach a new all-time peak, which, in hindsight, was a clue that the red metal on the futures exchanged was overdone on the upside. Copper futures plunged to just above the $4 level but finished April down under 10% and above the $4.60 per pound level as the nonferrous metal recovered after a very volatile month. Copper rose to nearly $5 in late April, but the price dropped over 26 cents per pound on the month's final day.
Cocoa leads on the upside- Natural gas plunges
ICE cocoa futures have been a bullish beast since breaking through the 1977 previous record high in early 2024. In April, cocoa futures led the commodities asset class with a 12.66% rally as supply concerns persisted.
The daily July futures chart highlights cocoa's rally from below $8,000 to nearly $8,900 per ton. West African growing conditions continue to plague supplies, keeping prices at record levels compared to the pre-2024 levels.
The volatile natural gas futures market posted the most significant decline, falling 21.87% in April.
Since peaking at over $5 per MMBtu on March 10, 2025, NYMEX natural gas futures for June delivery plunged in April as the shoulder season between heating and cooling tempered the demand. Meanwhile, at over $3.30 per MMBtu, nearby natural gas prices remain far higher than those at the end of April 2024, which were below the $2 level.
Source: EIA
The chart shows that, at 1.934 trillion cubic feet for the week ending on April 18, 2025, natural gas inventories across the United States were 19.8% below the same level in mid-April 2024 and 2.2% under the five-year average. Increased demand for LNG has supported natural gas prices. While they fell in April, the energy commodity remained far higher than at the same time in 2024.
Energy falls- Agricultural commodities were mostly steady
Crude oil plunged with the nearby NYMEX WTI futures dropping 17.96% and the ICE Brent futures posting a 17.47% decline. Gasoline and heating oil futures fell 11.52% and 11.39%, respectively. The outperformance in the oil products pushed gasoline and distillate refining spreads higher.
Ethanol prices moved 2.4% higher in April as the 2025 driving season is on the horizon and U.S. gasoline is a blend with biofuel. Meanwhile, Rotterdam coal's price fell 8.62% in April.
Grain prices were mixed, with a 1.58% gain in soybeans and a 2.64% increase in corn futures prices. Soft red winter wheat futures fell 3.59 during April as the 2025 planting season began with few supply concerns.
Animal proteins posted across-the-board gains, with lean hogs for June delivery leading the way on the upside with a 3.15% gain. August feeder cattle futures rallied 1.91%, while the June feeder cattle were 2.33% higher. The meats rallied as the peak demand season begins in late May, as barbecues come out of storage for the summer grilling season.
In other agricultural commodities, cocoa, FCOJ, and Arabica coffee futures posted impressive gains, while sugar and cotton futures were lower. Cotton remains the most inexpensive soft commodity compared to its price action over the past years.
Spotlight on tariffs
President Trump called April 2, 2025, ' Liberation Day ' as he announced the most significant reciprocal and punitive tariffs in history. The trade barriers caused substantial distortions in markets across all asset classes. Stocks dropped, the dollar index plunged, and the long-bond futures fell. Concerns that a global recession would grip economies caused substantial price volatility in markets across all asset classes, and commodities were no exception.
After a period of extreme price variance during the first half of April, markets calmed as the U.S. administration entered negotiations with worldwide trading partners. At the end of April, negotiations continued with no concrete deals on the table. Meanwhile, the most significant issue remains the U.S. trade relationship with China.
Stocks, bonds, and commodities finished April above the month's worst levels, but concerns continue to grip markets.
Factors to watch in May 2025
As I wrote at the end of March, ' Trends are a trader or investor's best friend in markets across all asset classes, and commodities are no exception.' The potential for extreme price variance persists as the raw materials sector moves into May. Agricultural commodities will follow the weather patterns for directional clues. Meats will move into the 2025 peak grilling season at the end of May, and as the temperatures increase, the demand for cooling could support natural gas. Gasoline demand will increase during the 2025 driving season during late spring and summer.
The other issues that could influence commodity prices in May are:
The wars in Ukraine and the Middle East and relations between the U.S. and countries worldwide could cause bouts of volatility.
U.S. policies under the Trump administration could continue to cause market turmoil. Tariffs are trade barriers that impact global raw material prices, creating distortions that lead to sudden price moves. The administration's negotiations and relations with China could cause sudden price variance.
As of the end of March, the Chinese economy remains critical as China is the demand side of the equation for many commodity markets.
Volatility in commodities creates trading opportunities. As I wrote in early April, 'Approach markets with a risk-reward plan and stick to the program. Accepting small losses in the quest for oversized gains is always acceptable. Therefore, stick to loss levels when markets move contrary to expectations, but adjust risk-reward dynamics to protect capital and gains when markets move in the desired direction.'
Expect continued volatility in the commodities asset class in May and beyond, and you will not be surprised or disappointed. Keep a close eye on grains, gasoline, and meats as they enter their peak demand seasons. The driving season runs through spring and summer, as does the grilling season. Meanwhile, gold remains a bullish beast, but even the most aggressive bull markets rarely move in straight lines. The higher the gold price rises, the greater the odds of a correction.