Forecasters predict 1 to 4 hurricanes this season
With hurricane season beginning June 1, Hawaii officials are urging residents to prepare now as forecasters predict near-to below-normal tropical cyclone activity in the Central Pacific this year.
Chris Brenchley, director of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Central Pacific Hurricane Center, said forecasters are expecting one to four tropical cyclones—including tropical depressions, storms and hurricanes—in the region this year.
The outlook reflects neutral El Nino conditions and weaker-than-normal wind shear, which could slightly favor storm development, although overall activity is expected to be average or below average.
'Even though the season is predicted to be below to near normal, there is still the need to prepare, ' Brenchley said. 'Now is that time. All of us as residents play a role, as well as businesses, in preparing for whatever the hurricane season may bring us this year.'
Brenchley pointed out that in 2024 the Central Pacific saw only two tropical cyclones—below the average of four to five—but one of them, Hurricane Dora, brushed the south side of Hawaii island in late August, proving that low activity doesn't equal low risk.
'A tropical cyclone really represents a potential hurricane, ' Brenchley said. 'They don't all become hurricanes. They have that potential.'
Officials urged residents to make emergency plans, gather at least two weeks of supplies and stay informed.
Gov. Josh Green has proclaimed May 18-24 as Hurricane Preparedness Week, calling on the public to be aware, educated and ready to take action. Though a direct hit might not happen every year, officials warn that it takes only one storm to upend lives, families and entire communities.
Emergency planners also urge residents to consider how they would move around in the aftermath of a storm. Roads may be blocked by fallen trees, fuel may be limited and evacuations could be slowed by traffic congestion.
Travis Counsell, executive director of the Hawaii Bicycling League, said bicycles can play a surprising but powerful role, often serving as one of the most reliable forms of transportation during and after disasters.
'Bikes as a resilient mode of transportation are an amazing tool that's not only sustainable, affordable and low-impact, but when disaster strikes, bicycles are often the most useful personal vehicle in some of those impacted areas, ' Counsell said.
Counsell cited examples from the 2024 New Year's earthquakes in Japan and the Aug. 8, 2023, Maui wildfires, where residents used bikes to navigate road closures, check on loved ones and transport supplies.
'Bikes do not require any gas. They're self-powered. They can be nimble. They can be lifted over downed trees or other things blocking the way, making them ideal for not only rural areas, but urban areas as well, ' he said.
As the Bicycling League marks its 50th anniversary this year, it's promoting bikes not just for recreation or commuting, but as tools of resilience.
The organization offers free workshops on how to maintain and prepare bikes for emergencies, including tips like checking air, brakes and chains ; adding racks or trailers ; and including items like helmets, lights, gloves and first aid kits as part of a disaster plan.
Counsell also noted that Green has proclaimed June 3—just days after the start of hurricane season—as World Bicycle Day, in alignment with a United Nations designation.
'Bicycles … they're way more than just for leisure, ' Counsell said. 'They are definitely part of how we build a resilient community.'
Brenchley urged residents to stay tuned to official updates from the National Weather Service and Central Pacific Hurricane Center throughout the season.
Even if a storm doesn't make landfall, it can bring life-threatening wind, rain and ocean hazards.
'If we have a tropical cyclone anywhere in the Central Pacific, it definitely warrants our attention and will be watched closely, ' Brenchley said.
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