A peek at next year's US grain exports in five easy charts
NAPERVILLE, Illinois, May 15 (Reuters) - The U.S. government's first estimates for the upcoming season are still hot off the press, but industry analysts are already discussing the feasibility of the figures, especially as they pertain to U.S. exports.
U.S. corn exports have been on fire in the current 2024-25 marketing year while soybean and wheat shipments have been more modest, yet still respectable.
But how are things shaping up so far for 2025-26? A look at new-crop export sales can help paint that picture.
For reference, the 2025-26 U.S. marketing years begin on June 1 for wheat, September 1 for corn and soybeans, and October 1 for soybean products.
As of May 8, U.S. exporters had sold 2.75 million metric tons of corn for export in 2025-26. That is a three-year high for the date but a bit below the longer-term average.
However, that is the second-best volume in at least two decades if excluding China and unknown destinations. China bought virtually no U.S. corn in 2024-25 after having accounted for 31% of American shipments in 2020-21.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture this week pegged 2025-26 U.S. corn exports at the second-largest all-time, up 3% on the year. The early sales pace covers about 4% of that target, the same as a year ago.
Some analysts doubt U.S. corn exporters can repeat the strong 2024-25 performance as they may face more Brazilian competition. Brazil's heavily exported second corn crop is set to rise 11% in 2024-25 and harvest will begin in a few weeks.
U.S. soybean export sales for 2025-26 finally sprung to life last week, bringing total bookings to 1 million tons as of May 8. That is slightly better than the year-ago volume but is otherwise the date's lowest in 20 years.
But that doesn't necessarily doom the upcoming season.
Despite the terrible start to 2024-25 sales, USDA's latest export target for that season is slightly higher than first projected a year ago. The agency predicts 2025-26 U.S. soybean exports down 2% on the year.
China might not show up anytime soon given Brazil's massive export program and trade conflicts between Beijing and Washington. Last year, China made its first new-crop U.S. soybean purchase in July, its latest start since 2005.
U.S. wheat prices have found competitive levels, and exporters last week made some of their best sales of the last several years. Those were mostly for 2025-26, boosting new-crop bookings to about 3.3 million tons as of May 8.
That is the second-largest volume for the date within the last decade, just slightly behind 2021.
The year-ago pace of new-crop export sales was also relatively brisk, boosting USDA's latest 2024-25 export target above initial estimates last year.
The agency sees 2025-26 shipments slipping more than 2% from the current levels with top exporter Russia likely to continue its dominance.
USDA predicts that U.S. soybean meal exports will notch a fourth consecutive record high in 2025-26, rising 3.4% on the year as domestic processing expands.
However, global end users are not yet feeling pressured. U.S. meal export sales for 2025-26 totaled just 185,000 tons as of last Thursday, the date's lowest in 14 years.
Top meal exporter Argentina is expected to have a steady offering this year, and its 2024-25 soybean crop outlook was boosted this week.
The 2025-26 U.S. soy crop is already set to shrink on the year, so the record meal export forecast could come under threat if acres, yield or both were to slip.
Large volumes of new-crop U.S. soybean oil are not usually sold this far ahead. USDA projects 2025-26 U.S. soybean oil exports falling 29% on the year but remaining well above the barren levels seen two and three years ago.
Shifts in the global vegetable oil market can certainly throw a wrench into the forecast. Late last year, Malaysian palm oil futures established a rare premium to Chicago soybean oil.
As a result, U.S. bean oil exporters in 2024-25 are expected to ship nearly five times the volume that USDA predicted a year ago.
But similar to meal, Argentina is poised for robust bean oil shipments into next year, particularly if competing U.S. or Brazilian supplies fall short.
Karen Braun is a market analyst. Views expressed above are her own.
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