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Reuters
4 days ago
- Business
- Reuters
Bumper Brazilian corn crop could spoil US exporters' fun: Braun
NAPERVILLE, Illinois, June 5 (Reuters) - If anything can wreck the party for U.S. corn exporters, it's Brazil. The U.S. Department of Agriculture has sky-high goals for U.S. corn exports in both the current and upcoming marketing years, but the overall potential may be confined by Brazil's current harvest success. As of May 29, U.S. corn exporters had sold 99% of USDA's full-year export outlook for 2024-25, which ends August 31. That is the fullest coverage by this point in a decade, and the figure would generally indicate that the current export target is too low. But by how much? U.S. corn has recently been able to maintain competitive pricing versus Brazil, and 2024-25 U.S. export sales over the last several weeks have been safely above average. However, Brazil just began harvesting its heavily exported second corn crop, and some production estimates have risen notably over the last week or so. Ever since Brazil's second corn output – and exports – exploded in 2011-12, U.S. exporters' ability to make corn sales in the final quarter of the marketing year has been somewhat limited whenever Brazil's crop is strong. Conab's May estimates showed Brazil's 2024-25 second-corn harvest up 11% from last year. Similar past years might imply that the next three months could feature an additional couple million metric tons of U.S. corn sales for 2024-25. USDA pegs 2024-25 U.S. exports at 66 million tons, second to the 69.8 million shipped in 2020-21 when China was a major player. The platform for 2024-25's success started building in the prior year, which boasted a record U.S. corn harvest. But the urge to compare this year with last year should come with extra caveats. Not only was corn cheap and plentiful a year ago, but Brazil's second crop shrank 12% on the year, facilitating above-average sales at the tail end of the 2023-24 U.S. season. Some analysts have surmised that tariff fears caused U.S. corn customers to stock up early on purchases, which cannot be confirmed or denied but could be another possible short-term limitation on U.S. corn sales. USDA's aspirations for U.S. corn exports in 2025-26 are even bigger than in 2024-25, but the feasibility is unclear given that the big 2024-25 Brazilian crop will be hogging global business through the next several months. As of May 29, U.S. exporters had sold just over 3 million tons of corn for export in 2025-26, slightly more than in the last two years but nothing special. Like old-crop sales, new-crop U.S. corn sales are also limited just prior to the start of the marketing year whenever Brazil's second-corn output is solidly up on the year. This can be extended to the other corn exporters, too. Combined 2024-25 corn output in Brazil, Argentina and Ukraine is set to rise 2% on the year, which could keep a lid on 2025-26 U.S. corn sales over the next three months. Apart from Brazil, U.S. exporters' potential success in 2025-26 depends on what happens at home. Although things are not perfect, the 2025-26 U.S. corn crop is off to a promising start with mostly benign weather expected for the first half of June. Over the last two decades, U.S. corn exports have almost never disappointed from initial expectations whenever production meets or exceeds the initial expectations. This offers a chance for U.S. exporters to retain control of their destiny despite ample Brazilian offerings if they can get cooperation from one very finicky source: Mother Nature. Karen Braun is a market analyst for Reuters. Views expressed above are her own.
Reuters
16-05-2025
- Business
- Reuters
A peek at next year's US grain exports in five easy charts
NAPERVILLE, Illinois, May 15 (Reuters) - The U.S. government's first estimates for the upcoming season are still hot off the press, but industry analysts are already discussing the feasibility of the figures, especially as they pertain to U.S. exports. U.S. corn exports have been on fire in the current 2024-25 marketing year while soybean and wheat shipments have been more modest, yet still respectable. But how are things shaping up so far for 2025-26? A look at new-crop export sales can help paint that picture. For reference, the 2025-26 U.S. marketing years begin on June 1 for wheat, September 1 for corn and soybeans, and October 1 for soybean products. As of May 8, U.S. exporters had sold 2.75 million metric tons of corn for export in 2025-26. That is a three-year high for the date but a bit below the longer-term average. However, that is the second-best volume in at least two decades if excluding China and unknown destinations. China bought virtually no U.S. corn in 2024-25 after having accounted for 31% of American shipments in 2020-21. The U.S. Department of Agriculture this week pegged 2025-26 U.S. corn exports at the second-largest all-time, up 3% on the year. The early sales pace covers about 4% of that target, the same as a year ago. Some analysts doubt U.S. corn exporters can repeat the strong 2024-25 performance as they may face more Brazilian competition. Brazil's heavily exported second corn crop is set to rise 11% in 2024-25 and harvest will begin in a few weeks. U.S. soybean export sales for 2025-26 finally sprung to life last week, bringing total bookings to 1 million tons as of May 8. That is slightly better than the year-ago volume but is otherwise the date's lowest in 20 years. But that doesn't necessarily doom the upcoming season. Despite the terrible start to 2024-25 sales, USDA's latest export target for that season is slightly higher than first projected a year ago. The agency predicts 2025-26 U.S. soybean exports down 2% on the year. China might not show up anytime soon given Brazil's massive export program and trade conflicts between Beijing and Washington. Last year, China made its first new-crop U.S. soybean purchase in July, its latest start since 2005. U.S. wheat prices have found competitive levels, and exporters last week made some of their best sales of the last several years. Those were mostly for 2025-26, boosting new-crop bookings to about 3.3 million tons as of May 8. That is the second-largest volume for the date within the last decade, just slightly behind 2021. The year-ago pace of new-crop export sales was also relatively brisk, boosting USDA's latest 2024-25 export target above initial estimates last year. The agency sees 2025-26 shipments slipping more than 2% from the current levels with top exporter Russia likely to continue its dominance. USDA predicts that U.S. soybean meal exports will notch a fourth consecutive record high in 2025-26, rising 3.4% on the year as domestic processing expands. However, global end users are not yet feeling pressured. U.S. meal export sales for 2025-26 totaled just 185,000 tons as of last Thursday, the date's lowest in 14 years. Top meal exporter Argentina is expected to have a steady offering this year, and its 2024-25 soybean crop outlook was boosted this week. The 2025-26 U.S. soy crop is already set to shrink on the year, so the record meal export forecast could come under threat if acres, yield or both were to slip. Large volumes of new-crop U.S. soybean oil are not usually sold this far ahead. USDA projects 2025-26 U.S. soybean oil exports falling 29% on the year but remaining well above the barren levels seen two and three years ago. Shifts in the global vegetable oil market can certainly throw a wrench into the forecast. Late last year, Malaysian palm oil futures established a rare premium to Chicago soybean oil. As a result, U.S. bean oil exporters in 2024-25 are expected to ship nearly five times the volume that USDA predicted a year ago. But similar to meal, Argentina is poised for robust bean oil shipments into next year, particularly if competing U.S. or Brazilian supplies fall short. Karen Braun is a market analyst. Views expressed above are her own.
Reuters
15-05-2025
- Business
- Reuters
A peek at next year's US grain exports in five easy charts: Braun
NAPERVILLE, Illinois, May 15 (Reuters) - The U.S. government's first estimates for the upcoming season are still hot off the press, but industry analysts are already discussing the feasibility of the figures, especially as they pertain to U.S. exports. U.S. corn exports have been on fire in the current 2024-25 marketing year while soybean and wheat shipments have been more modest, yet still respectable. But how are things shaping up so far for 2025-26? A look at new-crop export sales can help paint that picture. For reference, the 2025-26 U.S. marketing years begin on June 1 for wheat, September 1 for corn and soybeans, and October 1 for soybean products. As of May 8, U.S. exporters had sold 2.75 million metric tons of corn for export in 2025-26. That is a three-year high for the date but a bit below the longer-term average. However, that is the second-best volume in at least two decades if excluding China and unknown destinations. China bought virtually no U.S. corn in 2024-25 after having accounted for 31% of American shipments in 2020-21. The U.S. Department of Agriculture this week pegged 2025-26 U.S. corn exports at the second-largest all-time, up 3% on the year. The early sales pace covers about 4% of that target, the same as a year ago. Some analysts doubt U.S. corn exporters can repeat the strong 2024-25 performance as they may face more Brazilian competition. Brazil's heavily exported second corn crop is set to rise 11% in 2024-25 and harvest will begin in a few weeks. U.S. soybean export sales for 2025-26 finally sprung to life last week, bringing total bookings to 1 million tons as of May 8. That is slightly better than the year-ago volume but is otherwise the date's lowest in 20 years. But that doesn't necessarily doom the upcoming season. Despite the terrible start to 2024-25 sales, USDA's latest export target for that season is slightly higher than first projected a year ago. The agency predicts 2025-26 U.S. soybean exports down 2% on the year. China might not show up anytime soon given Brazil's massive export program and trade conflicts between Beijing and Washington. Last year, China made its first new-crop U.S. soybean purchase in July, its latest start since 2005. U.S. wheat prices have found competitive levels, and exporters last week made some of their best sales of the last several years. Those were mostly for 2025-26, boosting new-crop bookings to about 3.3 million tons as of May 8. That is the second-largest volume for the date within the last decade, just slightly behind 2021. The year-ago pace of new-crop export sales was also relatively brisk, boosting USDA's latest 2024-25 export target above initial estimates last year. The agency sees 2025-26 shipments slipping more than 2% from the current levels with top exporter Russia likely to continue its dominance. USDA predicts that U.S. soybean meal exports will notch a fourth consecutive record high in 2025-26, rising 3.4% on the year as domestic processing expands. However, global end users are not yet feeling pressured. U.S. meal export sales for 2025-26 totaled just 185,000 tons as of last Thursday, the date's lowest in 14 years. Top meal exporter Argentina is expected to have a steady offering this year, and its 2024-25 soybean crop outlook was boosted this week. The 2025-26 U.S. soy crop is already set to shrink on the year, so the record meal export forecast could come under threat if acres, yield or both were to slip. Large volumes of new-crop U.S. soybean oil are not usually sold this far ahead. USDA projects 2025-26 U.S. soybean oil exports falling 29% on the year but remaining well above the barren levels seen two and three years ago. Shifts in the global vegetable oil market can certainly throw a wrench into the forecast. Late last year, Malaysian palm oil futures established a rare premium to Chicago soybean oil. As a result, U.S. bean oil exporters in 2024-25 are expected to ship nearly five times the volume that USDA predicted a year ago. But similar to meal, Argentina is poised for robust bean oil shipments into next year, particularly if competing U.S. or Brazilian supplies fall short. Karen Braun is a market analyst. Views expressed above are her own. (The views expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.)
