Senedd election: 2026 could be 'most difficult' Labour has faced
The next Senedd election could be one of the most difficult Labour has faced in Wales, a senior politician from the party has said.Mick Antoniw told Walescast Labour needed to show things would improve in Wales ahead of the vote in May 2026.The former minister also warned the UK government cannot be "continually... saying no" to calls for more powers for the Senedd and Welsh government.A close ally of former first minister Mark Drakeford, Antoniw is stepping down as the Member of the Senedd for Pontypridd next May.
Labour has dominated politics in Wales for a century and has led every Welsh government since devolution began in 1999.The next election will be the first to elect 36 more politicians, with voters given greater choice over who represents them in the 96-seat parliament through a more proportional election system.Speaking to Walescast, the former counsel general for Wales said: "I think it will probably be one of the most difficult elections that we've had.''Mind you, every election is always difficult.''A poll at the end of 2024 dampened Welsh Labour's hopes for the 2026 elections with Plaid Cymru coming out on top and Reform alongside Labour.But Antoniw said: ''The last Senedd election I was involved in, it was predicted Labour would lose an enormous number of seats and there would even potentially be a Conservative rainbow government.''That didn't come about so you do have to be very careful with polls and predictions.''Antoniw said voters were attracted to Reform because they were disaffected "over the lack of change".''People want things to get better, and people want to know that there is hope on the horizon," he said.''They want to be convinced that their government will fight to make things better.''He said Reform were riding high but do not "really have any policies on which to be challenged or to be scrutinised".The former minister said the challenge for Labour was "showing that change is on the horizon, change can be made and things will improve"."That is the confidence barrier politics needs to get through by the next Senedd elections," he said.
Since the general election both governments at either end of the M4 have been run by Labour.Antoniw said there was "more engagement" now between the two.''The fact of the matter is where there was a Conservative government in Westminster you couldn't even talk about any of these things," he said.But calls for further devolution have gone unheeded, with requests for Wales to take control of the crown estate and the justice system rejected.Antoniw, who is the Welsh government's former chief legal advisor, added: ''They can't continually be saying, 'no, we're not interested in that' even if it happens to be Welsh Labour Party policy.''I think there is a need to start listening a bit more from the UK level in terms of some of these issues and why they are important to Wales.''He added teething issues were to be expected but it was important to help Welsh Labour deliver on policy.''It is always very difficult with a new government that's come in after 14 years where centralisation is quite a natural response to events, you want to get on and do things.''But it is equally important that they recognise that many of the powers and responsibilities are now devolved, and they have to help Welsh Labour to be able to deliver those as well.''
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