Can Jeremie Frimpong boost Liverpool's 2025/26 Champions League winner odds?

New York Times

2 days ago

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In the 2011 movie 'Moneyball,' Brad Pitt, portraying Oakland Athletics general manager Billy Beane, sits in the middle of a conference room table surrounded by scouts during an off-season meeting. As the discussion of the team's direction unfolds, Beane is abruptly cut-off by a scout concerned about their ability to replace a crucial player: Jason Giambi.
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'Billy,' the scout says, 'we got 38 home runs and 120 RBIs to make up.'
'Guys listen,' Beane interrupts, 'We're still trying to replace Giambi. I told you we can't do it. Now what we might be able to do is recreate him — recreate him in the aggregate.'
Losing a generational player like Trent Alexander-Arnold is not something even a club like Liverpool can shrug off. Despite his departure, the Reds still have the best odds to win both the Premier League (11/5) and Champions League (11/2). But should they?
With Jeremie Frimpong already in the fold and the potential acquisitions of Florian Wirtz and Milos Kerkez on the horizon, Liverpool's plan to replace their homegrown star is coming into view. Let's explore if it'll be enough to find value in their current odds.
It sounds silly, but Alexander-Arnold is truly a footballing unicorn. A right-back who could hold his own defensively but also doubled as one of the world's best ball-progressors and chance-creators is a rarity. To come in with expectations that Frimpong is Alexander-Arnold's successor would be quite unfair — they're not remotely the same player.
Alexander-Arnold ranked 17th in Europe's big five leagues with 65 passes into the penalty area this season. Despite playing as a wing-back in the Bundesliga, Frimpong had just 29 this year. To put that into context, the player in 16th was in the running for the Ballon d'Or — Raphinha — most of this past season. Alexander-Arnold was essentially an attacking midfielder hiding as a right-back whereas Frimpong is, well, not.
When it comes to progressive passes (passes that move the ball at least 10 yards closer to the opponent's goal), Alexander-Arnold ranked 19th and was once again surrounded by a bevy of talented midfielders like Nicolò Barella and Youri Tielemans. Frimpong ranked 10th…on his team. Even Leverkusen's defensive midfielder Robert Andrich had more progressive passes than Frimpong this season.
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It's at about this point where you're probably asking, 'So what does Frimpong do exactly?' The answer to this is simple: He runs, quite often and quite fast.
According to PFF FC's physical metrics provided to The Athletic, Frimpong sprinted more than any other player in Germany last season. In total, the new Liverpool signee had 800 sprints (classified as runs that exceed 25 KM/hr), 15 more than the next closest player. That willingness to run is far more reminiscent of Andy Robertson than Alexander-Arnold, except that Frimpong is an absolute speed merchant. The 24-year-old was clocked with the second-highest max speed in the Bundesliga last year — 35.33 km/h — only bested by FC Heidenheim's Sirlord Conteh.
Alexander-Arnold's on-ball orchestrating is gone, but Liverpool still need someone to play right-back. If you can't replace Alexander-Arnold, you might as well find a player with an elite trait at a cheap price. That's what Liverpool have done. But it's clear with the interest in Wirtz and Kerkez, the Reds know they will need more help to fill the Alexander-Arnold-sized hole.
Heading into the 2025-26 campaign without Alexander-Arnold puts a lot more on Mohamed Salah's shoulders. Salah's scoring streaks get plenty of acclaim, but his shot-creation for teammates is underappreciated. The Egyptian led Europe's big five leagues in expected assists while also leading Liverpool in passes played into the penalty area.
A large part of Liverpool's success stemmed from Salah's ability to work in concert with Alexander-Arnold. Salah's 488 progressive passes received topped Europe's big five leagues and were fueled by his former right-back's ball-progressing prowess. For anyone who watched the team, the formula was obvious: Alexander-Arnold moved the ball up the pitch to Salah, and then the two of them combined to terrorize opponents in the final third. In order to find value in their title-winning odds, Liverpool need to recreate this dynamic.
With Alexander-Arnold headed off to Spain and Frimpong not the creative type, Salah needs a new partner-in-crime. Enter, stage-right: Wirtz. While the odds suggest this transfer is far from sealed, the reason for Liverpool's aggressive pursuit of the 21-year-old is obvious. The Reds' recruitment team likely put far more thought into this, but if Alexander-Arnold was the 17th-best player in the world at playing the ball into the opponent's box, it makes sense to go after the player who finished one spot behind him — Wirtz.
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The problem for Liverpool is that Wirtz alone can't replicate all of Alexander-Arnold. The German midfielder is more of a threat in the attacking third — he led Leverkusen in shot-creating actions with 5.66 — than he is a contributor to a team's build-up play. Wirtz just ranked eighth for Leverkusen when it came to passing the ball into the opponent's final third, miles behind Granit Xhaka, who led the team in progressive passes.
To fill that final hole in the build-up play, Liverpool are turning to Kerkez. At first glance, it's hard to see how Kerkez could come close to matching Alexander-Arnold's ability. The 20-year-old did lead Bournemouth in progressive passes with 159, but that number falls well short of Alexander-Arnold's 232 from last season.
However, passing isn't the only way to move the ball forward — players can dribble, too. If you combine progressive passes and carries, Kerkez is much closer to Alexander-Arnold's tier of ball progression. Alexander-Arnold authored 283 progressive movements last season. Thanks to 106 progressive carries to go along with those 159 progressive passes, Kerkez was responsible for 265.
If Frimpong fills his actual position and Wirtz takes over some of the playmaking in the final third, it's Kerkez's distribution from deep that replicates the last part of Alexander-Arnold's production.
On the surface, fading Liverpool and looking for value in clubs like Arsenal (5/2) or Manchester City (13/5) to win the title next season would seem to be the right move. In this transfer window, other title-contending clubs have been acquiring exciting talent, rather than watching helplessly as a prime-age, generational superstar leaves town.
But like Beane did with the A's two decades ago, Michael Edwards and Liverpool's front office were tasked with replacing an irreplaceable player. The transfer window isn't close to finished yet, but if Wirtz and Kerkez join Frimpong, there's a chance Liverpool will have accomplished that seemingly impossible feat. They just needed to do it in the aggregate.
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(Photo of Jeremy Frimpong: Daniel Kopatsch / Getty Images)