The Meaning of Lee Jae-myung's Election Triumph

Time​ Magazine

2 days ago

According to exit polls, South Korea's presidential election today delivered a resounding triumph for Lee Jae-myung, the veteran center-left politician and leader of the Democratic Party of Korea (DP). His victory over Kim Moon Soo of the conservative People Power Party (PPP) closes a tumultuous chapter in South Korean politics, marked by former president Yoon Suk-yeol's short-lived martial law declaration, impeachment, and removal from office. It also ushers in a left-leaning administration with wide latitude to govern, setting the stage for a dramatic reorientation of the country's domestic and foreign policy.
Lee takes office with a rare advantage in South Korea's often fractious political system: a unified government. The DP already holds a majority in the National Assembly through at least 2028, when the next legislative elections are set to take place, giving Lee power to enact his agenda without the checks and gridlock that stymied his predecessor. Though he campaigned on a centrist message to broaden his appeal among moderate and undecided voters, Lee will use his large margin of victory and the highest turnout since 1997 to claim a strong political mandate and govern as a progressive.
A populist shaped by his years as a labor and human rights lawyer, Lee has long advocated for a stronger state role in redistributing economic gains and curbing the excesses of South Korea's powerful conglomerates. His recent pro-market signals —such as pledges to double the KOSPI and pursue MSCI developed market index inclusion —contrast with his lifelong skepticism of the private sector and appear aimed at shoring up business and consumer confidence, which cratered in the aftermath of the Yoon-triggered political crisis. While structural changes such as sweeping chaebol reform may be blunted by institutional resistance, his administration will push for increased social welfare spending, higher taxes on corporations and the wealthy, and tighter oversight of big business.
Despite his clear mandate, Lee's policy rollout will be delayed by transition logistics and early constraints. He takes office on June 4 under by-election rules, but it will take him weeks to form his cabinet and months to begin implementing his legislative agenda. His administration won't unveil a detailed policy platform until mid-August, with its first proposed budget arriving in September. In the meantime, Lee must stabilize an economy under pressure from weak domestic demand, falling exports, and the looming threat of higher U.S. tariffs.
U.S.-South Korea trade talks will represent Lee's first test. The Trump administration's 90-day tariff reprieve expires July 9, at which point U.S. tariffs will rise from 10% to 25% unless a new trade deal is struck. Lee has so far adopted a cautious tone, signaling that he may seek a deadline extension to allow him to benchmark South Korea's deal against those being negotiated by Japan and others. If talks stall or collapse, South Korea—whose second-largest export market after China is the U.S.—would face major headwinds as Lee tries to stimulate growth.
Foreign policy is another arena where Lee will chart a distinct course. He has pledged to maintain South Korea's core alliances, but his record suggests a cooler posture toward Washington and Tokyo and a pivot toward Beijing and Pyongyang. Lee has criticized his predecessor's overtures to Japan as overly 'subservient' and is skeptical of deeper trilateral security cooperation that binds South Korea more closely to the U.S.-Japan alliance. A friendlier approach to China—which Beijing is all too happy to encourage —would further strain ties with Washington.
At the same time, Lee has expressed openness to restarting talks with North Korea and wants to avoid Seoul being sidelined if Donald Trump revives his own outreach to Kim Jong-un. But Kim's renunciation of reunification and deepening ties with Russia limit expectations for diplomacy. Still, engagement with Pyongyang is one of the few areas where Lee and Trump could find common ground.
After three years of divided government, institutional clashes, and episodic crises, South Korea is taking a sharp left turn—driven by a president who has the mandate, the parliamentary majority, and the political will to deliver it. His presidency will mark the most cohesive governing era South Korea has seen in years—and possibly the most transformative. If Lee can deliver on even part of his agenda, he will reshape the contours of the country's politics—and its place in the world—for years to come.