Population growth is coming back to earth, but there's a sting in the numbers
People are leaving Australia in the highest numbers since the pandemic, easing population growth and delivering a boost to the Albanese government's attempts to keep control of immigration that have had mixed success to date.
International student numbers have also started flat lining, which is taking pressure off overall migrant levels, although a growing backlog of people on bridging visas and large number of skilled workers who are seeking longer visas will keep challenging Labor's efforts.
Fresh figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Thursday showed 70,000 people left the country in the final three months of last year – the highest departure figures since the March quarter of 2020 when 88,500 people left the country as the pandemic struck.
It comes on top of departure numbers of 65,000 in the September 2024 quarter, and 63,000 in the June 2024 quarter, which were already the highest since the end of 2020.
Until then, departure rates had lagged. About 50,000 people left each quarter in the 2022-23 financial year while record numbers of people arrived in Australia at the same time, hindering the Albanese government's efforts to keep a lid on migration and exposing Labor to political attack.
Former immigration department deputy secretary Abul Rizvi said the recent uptick in departure rates was good news for the government, albeit inevitable given how many people had arrived. 'The peak has passed [and] policy has to some degree done what it's supposed to do,' he said.
Further relief has come from a relative stall in student numbers. There were about 673,000 student visa holders in Australia in the March this year, compared to 671,000 in March 2024 and 583,000 in March 2023.
Rizvi said this signalled the original post-pandemic student visa boom was also coming to an end.
But he cautioned that its flow-on effects were still being felt: many former students have moved onto bridging visas, temporary graduate visas or skilled worker visas, which are visa classes that keep growing.
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