Nearly 600 people expected to die in UK heatwave as temperatures soar across the country
Nearly 600 people expected to die in UK heatwave as temperatures soar across the country
Experts at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and Imperial College London used decades of UK data to predict excess mortality during the hot temperatures from Thursday to Sunday.
It has been officially named a heatwave
(Image: PA Archive/PA Images )
Researchers have projected that the current heatwave sweeping through England and Wales could result in approximately 600 fatalities. Specialists from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) and Imperial College London drew on historical UK data to estimate deaths attributable to the scorching heat expected from Thursday to Sunday.
Their report, issued on Saturday, suggests nearly 570 individuals could perish due to the extreme temperatures during this period. It is forecasted that Saturday will witness the highest number of heat-related deaths, around 266, coinciding with the anticipated peak of the weather's severity.
Particularly hard-hit, London is expected to see as many as 129 extra mortality cases.
The scientists stressed that their analysis underlines the escalating danger posed by severe heatwaves to the public health of the nation.
This announcement comes on the back of a publication by World Weather Attribution (WWA) on Friday, indicating that climate change has made such heatwaves up to 100 times more probable and increased temperatures by 2-4C.
(Image: PA Media )
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Dr Garyfallos Konstantinoudis, an academic at the Grantham Institute at Imperial College London, remarked: "Heatwaves are silent killers – people who lose their lives in them typically have pre-existing health conditions and rarely have heat listed as a contributing cause of death."
He urged that the real-time assessment aims to expose the often-overlooked consequences of heatwaves and serve as a call to action.
Stressing the severity of the situation, he added, "Heatwaves are an underappreciated threat in the UK and they're becoming more dangerous with climate change."
Dr Konstantinoudis has issued a stark warning for individuals to heed heat-health advice this weekend and to check on the elderly, especially those who live alone.
An amber heat-health alert has been activated across England by the UK Health Security Agency, cautioning vulnerable groups about health dangers, including "a rise in deaths". Meanwhile, parts of Wales officially hit a heatwave on Friday. You can read more about that here.
Royal Ascot saw numerous attendees needing medical attention for heat-related ailments on Thursday.
Utilising data from published studies on the link between heat exposure and daily mortality rates in 34,753 English and Welsh regions, researchers have made some concerning predictions.
By integrating these findings with detailed weather projections from the Copernicus climate change service, they've calculated potential heat-related fatalities.
Their estimates suggest that there could have been 114 excess deaths on Thursday, 152 on Friday, 266 on Saturday, and 37 on Sunday as temperatures are expected to drop to the mid-20s.
(Image: PA Wire/PA Images )
It is anticipated that individuals over 65 will be most affected, with 488 of the projected excess deaths impacting this age group, according to the report.
However, the experts also caution that heat poses a risk to life across all age groups, with an estimated 82 deaths among those under 65.
Furthermore, the analysis does not consider the impact of the heatwave striking early in the summer before people have become accustomed to the heat, which could mean the actual death toll may be higher than predicted.
A recent report from the UK Climate Change Committee has projected that heat-related fatalities could surpass 10,000 annually by 2050 if global warming reaches 2C due to continued fossil fuel consumption.
This week, UN experts have sounded the alarm, stating that the world is at a critical juncture to curb warming and has only three years to prevent average global temperatures from rising above 1.5C.
Professor Antonio Gasparrini from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) commented on the severity of the situation: "Increases of just a degree or two can be the difference between life and death."
He further highlighted the impact on health services: "Every fraction of a degree of warming will cause more hospital admissions and heat deaths, putting more strain on the NHS."
Dr Malcolm Mistry, also from LSHTM, emphasised the risks associated with seemingly moderate temperatures: "Exposure to temperatures in the high 20s or low 30s may not seem dangerous, but they can be fatal, particularly for people aged over 65, infants, pregnant people and those with pre-existing health conditions."
He warned of the increasing dangers without prompt action: "Unless effective mitigation and adaptive measures are put in place in the coming years, the risk of large heat-related death events is set to increase in the UK – we have a large ageing population and warming is expected to increase to 2C by 2050 and as high as 3C this century."
Dr Lorna Powell, an NHS urgent care doctor in East London who did not participate in the study, shared her observations from the front line: "We are seeing cases of heat-related illnesses rising in our urgent care departments."
She described the rapid escalation of symptoms: "Heat exhaustion can quickly trigger more serious illnesses as dehydration sets in and the cardiovascular system becomes overwhelmed."
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