What does resignation of populist prime minister mean for Serbia?

The Guardian

28-01-2025

Serbia's populist prime minister, Milos Vučević, has resigned in a bid to calm political tensions following months of anti-corruption protests.
The protests began in November, after the outdoor roof of a train station in the northern city of Novi Sad collapsed, killing 15 people. The tragedy soon became a flashpoint as people across the country seized on the disaster to express their broader dissatisfaction with Serbia's increasingly authoritarian rule and demand greater government transparency.
Here we take a look at what led to the resignation of the country's prime minister and what it could mean for Serbia, a Balkan nation that has been an EU candidate country since 2012.
Since the roof collapse on 1 November, Serbia has been gripped by near-daily protests. Led by students from several state universities, the demonstrations have ranged from 15-minute traffic blockades at 11.52am, the exact time the concrete canopy came crashing down, to halting classes across the country by camping inside faculties.
The students' demands have been straightforward: they want full transparency on what caused the roof collapse and are calling for those responsible to be brought to justice.
In a country beset by widespread corruption and where few feel that state institutions work in the interests of citizens, the students' call soon caught on. The small gatherings swiftly grew, as residents from all walks of life began joining in by the thousands.
Waving banners depicting a bloodied hand – an image that protesters said symbolised the government's responsibility in the collapse – those in the streets were joined by opposition parties and civic groups who linked the roof's collapse to shoddy construction resulting from corruption and nepotism. The government has denied these allegations.
In recent weeks the protests have been marred by incidents, including two occasions in which drivers rammed into the crowds, resulting in two women being injured.
The near-daily protests have continued to spread, taking place in more than 100 cities and towns and drawing in increasing support from members of the judiciary, teachers, private businesses and the general public.
Showing little sign of slowing, the largely peaceful protests pose the most significant challenge in years to the increasingly autocratic rule of Serbia's populist president, Aleksandar Vučić, and his ruling Serbian Progressive party (SNS), both of whom have faced accusations of curbing democratic freedoms in Serbia.
After a record 100,000 people turned out to protest in Belgrade on 22 December, Vučić said Serbia's special forces would 'throw them around in six to seven seconds'. The threat appears to have been mostly bluster, as security forces have so far not been used to break up the protests.
Instead the protests were met with limited concessions from the government, who declassified some documents related to the station collapse, which took place soon after it was renovated by a Chinese-led consortium.
Thirteen people have been charged over the disaster.
On Monday, hours after tens of thousands of people staged a day-long blockade of a major intersection in Belgrade, the president addressed the nation, defending his government's response to the tragedy and promising to launch a dialogue with the protesters.
Vučević said he made the decision to resign after a female student in Novi Sad was taken to hospital following an attack by assailants allegedly from the ruling Serbian Progressive party. Prosecutors later said four people were detained.
'It is my appeal for everyone to calm down the passions and return to dialogue,' Vučević told a news conference on Tuesday. The mayor of Novi Sad, Milan Đurić, was also set to resign on Tuesday, said Vučević.
The outgoing prime minister also linked the protests to foreign interference, without providing any evidence. 'I can never justify or understand many of these protests, blockades of lives, of roads and the freedom of movement of other citizens,' he said.
The resignation of Vučević – who was mayor of Novi Sad when the train station renovations began – appeared to be an attempt to 'buffer' public anger over the tragedy, journalist Slobodan Georgiev told N1 television. 'They [the ruling party] have been in a free fall since the Novi Sad tragedy.'
On Tuesday, pro-government media in Serbia said Vučić would attend a cabinet session in the evening to decide whether to appoint a new prime minister-designate or call early elections. The decision needs to be made within 30 days.
The president was probably hoping the resignation would be enough to quell dissent and allow him to bring the protests under control, said Marta Szpala, a senior fellow at the Centre for Eastern Studies in Warsaw.
'Alternatively, he can call a snap election, seeking to regain control of the narrative and take advantage of a decentralised and very diverse social movement behind the protests,' she said.
The timing of a snap election would probably work in Vučić's favour, said Szpala. 'He would hope to capitalise on the fact that there is no strong, united political structure in place to challenge his rule, as the opposition was expecting the next vote to be in 2027.'
Opposition parties have said they would insist on a transitional government that would create conditions for a free and fair election. Vučić's populists have faced accusations of irregularities during past elections.
Branimir Jovančićević, a longstanding member of the opposition Democratic party and former member of the national assembly from 2022 to 2024, said he doubted that the resignation of Vučević – largely considered to be subordinate to the country's president – would be enough to halt the protests.
'If the president thinks that by replacing one, essentially, unimportant figure … [he] will solve the problem … he is deeply mistaken,' Jovančićević told the Associated Press.
Others pointed to the wider impact of the protests, suggesting that they could be a sign of shifting political tides in the Balkan country.
'Reportedly, even judges – prominent state employees – left the courthouses to support passing protesters,' Edward Joseph, a former US diplomat at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, wrote on social media this week. 'The fear factor is gone. Even in a degraded Balkans democracy, the people still have agency and can still demand accountability.'