Julianna Peña vs. Kayla Harrison prediction, pick: Is expected blowout coming at UFC 316?

USA Today

a day ago

Julianna Peña vs. Kayla Harrison prediction, pick: Is expected blowout coming at UFC 316?
Show Caption
Hide Caption
Julianna Pena vs. Kayla Harrison prediction | UFC 316 breakdown
MMA Junkie fight analyst Dan Tom offers his breakdown and prediction for the UFC 316 co-main event.
dan tom
MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in-depth to break down the biggest fights in the UFC. Today, he takes a closer look at the UFC 316 co-main event between women's bantamweight champion Julianna Peña and Kayla Harrison.
Julianna Peña UFC 316 preview
Staple info:
Record: 13-5 MMA, 8-3 UFC
13-5 MMA, 8-3 UFC Height: 5'6" Age: 35 Weight: 135 lbs. Reach: 69"
5'6" 35 135 lbs. 69" Last fight: Decision win over Raquel Pennington (Oct. 5, 2024)
Decision win over Raquel Pennington (Oct. 5, 2024) Camp: Sikjistu/VFS Academy (Chicago)
Sikjistu/VFS Academy (Chicago) Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
Orthodox/kickboxing Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ UFC bantamweight champion
+ 'The Ultimate Fighter' season 18 winner
+ Regional MMA title
+ 3 KO victories
+ 6 submission wins
+ 4 first-round finishes
+ Aggressive pace and pressure
^ Puts together punches when feeling in stride
+ Well-conditioned athlete
+ Strong inside of the clinch
^ Favors inside and outside trips
+ Solid transitional grappler
^ Works well toward the back
+ Effective ground striker
+/- 2-1 against UFC-level southpaws
Kayla Harrison UFC 316 preview
Staple info:
Record: 18-1 MMA, 2-0 UFC
18-1 MMA, 2-0 UFC Height: 5'8" Age: 34 Weight: 135 lbs. Reach: 66"
5'8" 34 135 lbs. 66" Last fight: Decision win over Ketlen Vieira (Oct. 5, 2024)
Decision win over Ketlen Vieira (Oct. 5, 2024) Camp: American Top Team (Florida)
American Top Team (Florida) Stance/striking style: Southpaw/kickboxing
Southpaw/kickboxing Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ 2x Olympic judo gold medalist (U.S.)
+ 2x PFL tournament winner (2019, 2021)
+ 6th degree judo black belt
+ Multiple judo accolades
+ 6 KO victories
+ 7 submission wins
+ 9 first-round finishes
+ Aggressive pace and pressure
+ Steadily improving southpaw striking
^ Jabs, kicks and crosses
+ Strong inside the clinch
^ Excellent trips and takedowns
+ Solid wrestling ability
+ Good positional grappling
^ Works well from half guard
Julianna Peña vs. Kayla Harrison point of interest: Open-stance affair
The co-main event in New Jersey features a women's title fight between two bantamweights who operate out of opposite stances.
The orthodox fighter in this equation, Julianna Peña, has seen her share of open-stance affairs before.
Sure, there may not be a lot to write home about as far as her skills on the feet go, but Peña has clearly been working hard with Mike Valle and others to improve upon the rawness that we've seen since the 'TUF' house.
Now, it is uncommon to see Peña being much more measured in her form, occasionally feinting or throwing away a right hand in order to finish with the left. Peña will still blitz forward in combination when feeling in stride, but she displayed some decent improvements to her jabbing ability in her series with Amanda Nunes.
However, in her rematch with Nunes, "The Lioness" was able to change things up successfully on Peña by fighting her from a southpaw stance and scoring multiple knockdowns on the now-champion.
Although Harrison is not on the same level as Nunes from a striking perspective, the southpaw judoka has made some measurable strides that Peña will need to respect.
Despite initially throwing power a bit naked from her rear side to start, Harrison has been applying the same discipline to striking that she did for judo. Now, in more recent years, Harrison has appeared much better at staying on balance and setting things up off of her lead hand.
In fact, having a more active lead hand will likely serve Harrison well considering how potent lead right hands were for Nunes in what was Peña's last official loss. That said, I'm not sure how much Harrison will be looking to strike given that her win conditions are heavily weighted toward the grappling side of the playing field.
Julianna Peña vs. Kayla Harrison breakdown: Winning the wrestling
Considering that both fighters have traditionally been comfortable operating in closed quarters, I suspect that the clinch with be a key junction in this fight.
Although Peña is not shy about getting in on a shot, she secures a vast majority of takedowns via the clinch. Whether she is attempting inside or outside trips, Peña is ultra-aggressive whenever she can get her hands locked around her opponent.
When able to get the fight to the floor on her terms, Peña is a blanketing top player who uses both strikes and pressure to encourage opposition into giving their backs. However, given the superior on-paper firepower that Peña will be dealing with in tie-ups, I'll be curious to see what her approach is and if she enters clinch space as recklessly as usual opposite Harrison.
A two-time Olympic gold medalist in judo who has six degrees to her black belt, it's safe to say that Harrison is comfortable inside of the clinch. That said, she – like other judokas in the modern era of MMA – has embraced the more traditional wrestling attacks we see in this sport a la double-legs along the fence.
Once Harrison can ground her opposition, her hips immediately serve as staples while she looks to see what advances are given to her. Working particularly well from half guard, Harrison shows a combination of wicked shoulder pressure or strikes and will smartly push down and away on her opponent's knees to establish quarter-to-full mount positions.
Peña is a dogged grappler from multiple positions, but she could be forced to pick her poison if she allows Harrison to settle in on top.
Julianna Peña vs. Kayla Harrison odds
The oddsmakers and the public are heavily favoring the challenger, listing Harrison -720 and Peña +450 via FanDuel.
Julianna Peña vs. Kayla Harrison prediction, pick
Considering all the Ronda Rousey comparisons from the outset of her career, it should be of no surprise that Rousey-like odds have also followed Harrison in kind. And though you can always do much worse than sprinkling on the underdogs in outrageously priced women's MMA matchups, I have a hard time seeing Peña's winning conditions outside of Harrison failing to finish and falling apart down the stretch.
Don't get me wrong: we've seen Peña win that way before and falling apart is a real possibility given the amount of weight the Harrison cuts to get down to this division. That said, it's still not enough to sway me from the skills gaps I see at play.
Aside from the fact that Raquel Pennington should probably still be champion (as I believe that Pennington-Peña was quietly one of the more questionable scorecards of last year), Peña has proven to be too defensively liable for my liking. From her lack of head movement to her porous takedown defense, she leaves a lot for her foes to work with.
Sure, Peña's toughness and staying power are both admirable and undeniable. However, I still don't think it's advisable to stand on the tracks when a freight train is coming through.
Prediction: Harrison by submission in Round 2.
Julianna Peña vs. Kayla Harrison start time, how to watch
As the co-main event, Peña and Harrison are expected to make their walks to the octagon at approximately 11:45 p.m. ET. The fight streams on ESPN+ pay-per-view.