US Share Market prediction: Stocks soar toward records — but will inflation and Trump's Tesla feud trigger a crash?
Synopsis Apart from inflation and earnings, Friday will bring an early reading of the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index for June. As inflation data trickles in and political noise grows louder, markets will continue to navigate a delicate balancing act between optimism and uncertainty. As the U.S. stock market hovers just below all-time highs, investors and policymakers alike are bracing for new economic signals, with fresh inflation data set to headline a crucial week for financial markets.
ADVERTISEMENT Following last week's broad-based rally, momentum remains strong. The S&P 500 index is now within 2% of setting a new record, buoyed by Friday's jobs report that momentarily eased recession concerns. Major U.S. indices closed higher for the week — the Nasdaq Composite climbed 2.3%, the S&P 500 rose 1.6%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced more than 1%, as mentioned in a report by Yahoo Finance.A significant part of this week's market direction will depend on updates from May's Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) reports. Economists anticipate that annual headline inflation rose to 2.5% in May, up from April's 2.3% — signaling a potential pause in recent disinflationary momentum. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, is projected to have increased by 2.9% year-on-year, slightly up from April's 2.8%.
With the Federal Reserve set to meet on June 18, these figures could inform the central bank's near-term stance on interest rates. Wall Street analysts expect the Fed to maintain current policy settings, though signs of persistent inflation could revive debate about future rate paths.Although the U.S. added 139,000 jobs in May, and the unemployment rate remained officially unchanged at 4.2%, deeper metrics tell a more nuanced story. Economists such as Neil Dutta of Renaissance Macro note that downward revisions to April's job figures, a softening in prime-age employment, and a marginal rise in the unrounded unemployment rate — now at 4.244% — suggest the labor market may be weaker than headlines suggest."The Fed and markets appear focused on surface-level stability, but the data reveals emerging structural cracks," Dutta observed, as quoted in a report by Yahoo Finance.
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On the corporate front, earnings reports from Oracle, Adobe, and GameStop headline a light calendar. Apple's Worldwide Developers Conference is also expected to generate headlines, particularly around the tech giant's AI strategies and software upgrades.Investor anxiety around tariffs appears to have softened. Despite a volatile April marked by tariff hikes, markets have remained relatively steady. Experts like Barclays' Venu Krishna attribute this to a broader realization that aggressive tariff measures may not materialize in full. This has contributed to declining volatility, as measured by the VIX, and a gradual rebound in consumer and corporate confidence.
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Separately, tensions between President Donald Trump and Tesla CEO Elon Musk have spilled into financial headlines. After Musk criticized Trump's tax bill, the president threatened to revoke government subsidies for Tesla. The feud contributed to Tesla's 14% single-day stock plunge on Thursday — the largest market cap loss in its history — dragging the stock market along with it.Though Tesla shares recovered slightly on Friday, experts caution that prolonged tensions between Trump and major corporate figures could create further market instability.
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Key economic data releases — especially May's Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) — are expected this week. These will provide important signals on inflation trends ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting on June 18.
The S&P 500 is currently within 2% of setting a new record, buoyed by strong momentum from last week's jobs report and broad market gains.
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