logo
Urban India is warming faster, 3.2% of city GDP could be at risk by 2050—World Bank

Urban India is warming faster, 3.2% of city GDP could be at risk by 2050—World Bank

The Print3 days ago
Titled 'Towards Resilient and Prosperous Cities in India', the report released Tuesday found that intense heat waves and urban heat island (UHI) effects are already causing temperatures in city centers to rise by over 3-4 degrees over surrounding areas.
Heat-related death in India will also rise from 144,000 to 328,500 per year by 2050 under a high-climate change scenario, an increase of 128 percent, the report has estimated, adding that this is in line with historical trends.
New Delhi: With urban heat impacts increasing, Chennai and Surat are experiencing average night time temperatures, which is approximately 3-4 degree Celsius higher than nearby rural areas, while it's 5 degree Celsius higher for the inland city of Lucknow, a new World Bank report has said.
In Surat, for instance, the report says the number of hot nights is expected to rise from 65 percent of nights per year to 82 percent. 'In the most densely built neighborhoods, the frequency of hot nights will be even higher, with nocturnal temperatures rarely falling below 25°C.'
At present, across all three cities—Chennai, Surat and Lucknow, 25 percent of working hours per year meet or exceed the high heat stress threshold.
The report studied 24 Indian cities, with a special focus on Chennai, Indore, New Delhi, Lucknow, Surat and Thiruvananthapuram, and found that 'timely adaptation can avert billions of dollars of annual losses from future weather-related shocks.'
It states that cities generally experience higher temperatures compared to surrounding rural areas due to concrete structures, roads, and other impermeable infrastructure.
'These absorb solar energy and re-emit it at night, leading to higher temperatures, a phenomenon called the UHI effect. In Indian cities, UHI is often exacerbated by high population densities, concrete structures, limited green spaces, and increased heat generated by human activities, such as transportation, industry, and air conditioning,' the report states.
It also estimated that exposure to dangerous levels of heat stress has also increased by 71 percent—from 4.3 billion in 1983-1990 to 10.1 billion persons-hour per year—in 2010-2016 in 10 large cities of India. These include Pune, Hyderabad, Surat, Lucknow, Varanasi, Ahmedabad, Chennai, Mumbai, New Delhi and Kolkata.
Also Read: Human body, in the heat of the moment
Even GDP at risk from heat stress
According to the World Bank report, heat-related excess deaths in Chennai, Surat, and Lucknow are already estimated at between 0.2 to 0.4 per 1,000 people annually, with the heat-related excess mortality rate approximately 20 percent higher for people aged 70 or above.
But what should worry Indian policy makers more is the modeling carried out for the World Bank report, which estimates a 30 percent increase in the crude death rate for Chennai and Surat by 2050 under a low-emissions scenario and a 38 percent increase for Lucknow.
Extreme heat is also adversely impacting the city's GDP. The report mentions that In Chennai, extreme heat is already putting workers in danger and costing as much as $1.9 billion each year, or 2.3 percent of the city's GDP. 'Under a global high-emissions scenario, 3.2 percent of the city's GDP could be at risk by 2050 because of heat stress,' the report says.
But with over 50 percent of the urban infrastructure required for 2050 still to be built, India has a critical opportunity to drive resilient urban infrastructure development, the report points out.
'The imperative for India to build resilient cities at scale is clear. By investing in more green and resilient urban development—including housing, transport, and municipal services—cities can better mitigate extreme heat conditions and urban floods, and continue to grow and create jobs,' World Bank country director Auguste Tano Kouame said.
The World Bank has recommended that Indian policy makers implement programmes to address extreme urban heat and flooding, including better regulation of stormwater, green spaces, installation of cool roofs, and effective early warning systems.
Besides, India should also invest in resilient infrastructure and municipal services, energy efficient and resilient housing, modernize solid waste management and make urban transport flood resilient.
The World Bank has also batted for engaging the private sector for upgrading the city's infrastructure. It estimates that investments of over $2.4 trillion will be needed by 2050 to meet the need for new, resilient, and low-carbon infrastructure and services in cities. 'The private sector's role will be critical in meeting these investments,' the report states.
World Bank's Asmita Tiwari, one of the co-authors said, 'Timely interventions will help India's cities continue to safeguard lives and properties, attract new businesses and jobs, and drive innovation.'
The report cites how several cities are already taking urgent steps to build resilience. For instance, Ahmedabad has developed a Heat Action Plan model, which aims to strengthen early warning systems, improve healthcare readiness, increase green cover and shift work schedules for outdoor laborers.
Kolkata has adopted a city-level flood forecasting and warning system, while Indore has invested in a modern solid waste management system, improving cleanliness and supporting green jobs. Chennai has adopted a climate action plan based on thorough risk assessment and targeting both adaptation and low-carbon growth.
(Edited by Tony Rai)
Also Read: India recorded 67,637 heat stroke cases, 374 deaths between March and 25 July, govt tells Parliament
Orange background

Try Our AI Features

Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:

Comments

No comments yet...

Related Articles

Light rain, thunderstorms likely in Delhi
Light rain, thunderstorms likely in Delhi

News18

time3 hours ago

  • News18

Light rain, thunderstorms likely in Delhi

Agency: PTI Last Updated: New Delhi, Jul 25 (PTI) Delhi woke up to overcast skies and humid weather on Friday, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasting light rain and thunderstorms for the day. The Safdarjung observatory, which serves as the city's base station, recorded a minimum temperature of 28 degrees Celsius. The maximum temperature is expected to settle around 36 degrees Celsius. The relative humidity stood at 72 per cent at 8.30 am, according to IMD's morning bulletin. The IMD has predicted cloudy skies, light rain and thunderstorms during the day. Delhi's Air Quality Index (AQI) recorded a reading of 128, in the 'moderate' category, according to the Central Pollution Control Board. An AQI between zero and 50 is considered 'good', 51 to 100 'satisfactory', 101 to 200 'moderate', 201 to 300 'poor', 301 to 400 'very poor', and 401 to 500 'severe'. PTI SGV DIV DIV Disclaimer: Comments reflect users' views, not News18's. Please keep discussions respectful and constructive. Abusive, defamatory, or illegal comments will be removed. News18 may disable any comment at its discretion. By posting, you agree to our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy.

Humid morning in Delhi after light showers; IMD predicts more rain today
Humid morning in Delhi after light showers; IMD predicts more rain today

Business Standard

time4 hours ago

  • Business Standard

Humid morning in Delhi after light showers; IMD predicts more rain today

Delhi woke up to a humid Friday morning after light rain and bright sun on July 24 pushed the temperature slightly higher. A spell of rain on July 23 had brought temporary relief, accompanied by severe waterlogging and traffic disruption in several parts of the city. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the national capital recorded a maximum temperature of 35.9 degrees Celsius on Thursday — one degree above the seasonal average. The minimum temperature settled at 25 degrees Celsius, which is 2.3 degrees below normal. The humidity level was 88 per cent at 5.30 pm. The IMD has forecast more rainfall for July 25. The sky is likely to remain partly cloudy, with chances of light to moderate showers, accompanied by thunderstorms and lightning. The maximum temperature is expected to range between 35 degrees Celsius and 37 degrees Celsius, while the minimum may stay between 24 and 26 degrees Celsius. Air quality drops to 'moderate' category Delhi's air quality deteriorated slightly, slipping into the 'moderate' category after a period of 'satisfactory' and 'good' levels. As per the Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB), the Air Quality Index (AQI) stood at 128 at 8 am on July 25. Light rain and cloudy skies to persist through the week No major weather alerts have been issued for the capital in the coming days. Light to moderate rainfall with occasional thunderstorms is expected to continue until the end of the month. Cloudy skies and relatively lower temperatures are likely through the week. Humidity levels will vary based on the intensity and timing of rain. Telangana CM keeps officials on high alert Telangana Chief Minister A Revanth Reddy on Thursday directed district collectors to remain alert and coordinate efforts amid heavy rain forecasts across the state. Speaking from Delhi, Reddy instructed officials to monitor the situation, especially in areas under weather alerts, and take all steps necessary to prevent casualties or damage. He also ordered precautionary measures in flood-prone zones, including Greater Hyderabad, and asked district authorities to remain on standby. Landslide damages homes, road in Uttarkashi A landslide triggered by heavy rain on July 23 night struck Nuranu village in Uttarkashi district, damaging homes, an under-construction road, and apple orchards. According to officials, water and debris entered several houses, damaging property and destroying household items. The Nuranu road, which is still under construction, also suffered damage. However, no loss of human or animal life was reported. An assessment of the overall damage is ongoing.

India Weather Today: Delhi On Rain Watch, Heavy Downpour Alerts Issued Across Multiple States; Mumbai On High Tide Warning
India Weather Today: Delhi On Rain Watch, Heavy Downpour Alerts Issued Across Multiple States; Mumbai On High Tide Warning

India.com

time4 hours ago

  • India.com

India Weather Today: Delhi On Rain Watch, Heavy Downpour Alerts Issued Across Multiple States; Mumbai On High Tide Warning

The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted rain and thunderstorms for the national capital on Friday, after a mixed weather in the city on Thursday. Delhi had a maximum temperature of 35.9 degrees Celsius, a degree higher than the season's average, while the minimum temperature was at 25 degrees Celsius, 2.3 degrees less than normal, with a few places seeing heavy rainfall. Heavy Rain Alert For Multiple States Outside Delhi, Skymet, the weather forecasting agency, has forecast moderate to heavy rain over a number of states today. They are Konkan and Goa, Coastal Karnataka, Vidarbha, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Jharkhand, and North Telangana. Light to moderate rain with scattered heavy showers can also be predicted for Assam, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, South Gujarat, Gangetic West Bengal, and East Rajasthan. In addition, light to moderate rain will be possible over Northeast India, Sikkim, West Bengal, East Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Marathwada, Central Maharashtra, Kerala, Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Lakshadweep, and Western Himalayan areas. Light rain will be expected in West Madhya Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Gujarat, Interior Karnataka, and Tamil Nadu. Mumbai On High Tide Alert In the meantime, the Meteorological Department and the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) have issued a warning for high tide in Mumbai through July 27. Citizens and tourists alike are warned to stay away from the coasts of beaches like Juhu Beach and Marine Drive. Sea waves at high tide levels may reach up to 4.5 meters (or around 15 feet), risking waterlogging in the city's low-lying areas.

DOWNLOAD THE APP

Get Started Now: Download the App

Ready to dive into a world of global content with local flavor? Download Daily8 app today from your preferred app store and start exploring.
app-storeplay-store