National Hurricane Center tropical outlooks start soon. Here's why they're important to Florida

Yahoo

12-05-2025

The 2025 hurricane season is less than a month away.
Later this week, on May 15, the National Hurricane Center will begin issuing daily "tropical outlooks," highlighting areas showing potential for tropical development over the next seven days.
As happened in March, an outlook will be issued ahead of May 15 if forecasters think something may develop earlier.
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Look for daily stories from USA Today Network-Florida on conditions in the tropics using those advisories, along with forecasts from other hurricane experts, including AccuWeather, Florida meteorologist Dr. Ryan Truchelut and Philip Klotzbach, meteorologist at Colorado State University.
Now is the time to prepare for hurricane season. To help people get ready, NOAA issued daily advice May 4-10 as part of Hurricane Preparedness Week.
The first named storm of the season will be Andrea.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America. NOAA changed its naming convention for the Gulf of Mexico after the U.S. Geological Survey changed the name on U.S. maps per President Trump's order.
Tropical outlooks are issued by the National Hurricane Center starting May 15 through Nov. 30.
A map highlights "significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for development during the next seven days," said Larry Kelly, hurricane specialist with the National Hurricane Center, in an email.
Contained in the outlook are the probabilities the area could develop into a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours and seven days:
A low probability of development ranges from 0-30%
A medium probability of development ranges from 40-60%
A high probability of development ranges from 70-100%
"The hatched areas on the graphic represent the potential formation area during the forecast period. It is important to note that it is not a forecast track and just a formation area," Kelly said.
The hatched areas on the tropical outlook map indicate "areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop," said National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome said in an interview in 2024.
The colors make it visibly clear how likely a system could develop with yellow being low, orange medium, and red high.
The National Hurricane Center generally doesn't issue tropical advisories until a there is a named storm, but there is an exception.
"If a system is near land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center won't wait before it issues advisories, even if the system hasn't become an actual storm. This gives residents time to prepare," Rhome said.
"The tropical weather outlook provides forecasts on areas of disturbed weather that could develop into tropical cyclones," Kelly said. "It highlights the location, movement, and development potential of these systems over the next two to seven days.
"This information is important for early preparation and awareness during hurricane season so you can be prepared for the hazards that systems can bring, including storm surge, flooding, strong winds, tornadoes and hazardous marine and beach conditions."
The National Hurricane Center announced earlier this year a few changes will be coming in 2025.
Among the changes will be another tweak to its cone of uncertainty, sometimes nicknamed the cone of death. In 2024, the cone underwent a major change, with watches and warnings displayed for inland counties instead of just coastal counties.
➤ National Hurricane Center lays out changes coming for 2025 season. See what to expect
Here are the changes coming this year:
New addition to cone of uncertainty
Based on feedback on the experimental cone, this year the National Hurricane Center said it would add a specific symbol — diagonal pink and blue lines — for counties where both a hurricane watch and tropical storm warning are in effect.
Cone getting smaller
The size of the tropical cyclone track forecast error cone for the Atlantic basin in 2025 will be about 3% to 5% smaller compared to 2024. The cone represents the probable track of the center of a tropical cyclone. This year's cone will reflect historical official forecast errors from 2020 to 2024.
Earlier advance warning
In 2025, the National Hurricane Center will be able to issue an advisory up to 72 hours — instead of 48 hours — before the anticipated arrival of storm surge or tropical-storm-force winds on land.
Addition of rip current risk map
This new addition provided by the Hurricane Center will be provided for the current day, the next day, and as a composite showing the highest risk over both days for areas along the East and Gulf coasts of the United States, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, and the coast of southern California.
Storm surge info for Hawaiian Islands
New in 2025 will be a "probabilistic storm surge guidance" for the Hawaiian communities of Kauai, Maui, Oahu, and Big Island. The information will be posted 72 hours before hurricane impacts are expected.
Forecasters can't emphasize enough the importance of preparing for tropical storms and hurricanes, even before the season begins.
May 4-10 was designated as Hurricane Preparedness Week and NOAA chose a different topic each day to help people know what to do before, during and after a storm.
➤ New to hurricanes? Everything to know about NOAA tips from Hurricane Preparedness Week
"Now is the time to prepare before the season begins," Kelly said. "Take action TODAY to be better prepared for when the worst happens. Understand your risk from hurricanes, and begin pre-season preparations now. Make sure you have multiple ways of receiving forecasts and alerts, and know what to do before, during, and after a storm. Stay informed throughout the season."
Colorado State University meteorologists are predicting the following for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season:
17 named storms
9 hurricanes
4 major hurricanes
AccuWeather is predicting the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season could bring:
Named storms: 13 to 18
Hurricanes: 7-10
Major hurricanes: 3-5
Direct U.S. impacts: 3-6
Truchelut predicted the 2025 season has a 50-50 shot of landing in the ranges of:
16-21 tropical storms
7-9 hurricanes
3-4 major hurricanes
Based on a 30-year period from 1991 to 2020, an average Atlantic hurricane season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes, according to NOAA.
Here are the names for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, along with how to pronounce them:
Andrea: AN-dree uh
Barry: BAIR-ree
Chantal: shahn-TAHL
Dexter: DEHK-ster
Erin: AIR-rin
Fernand: fair-NAHN
Gabrielle: ga-bree-ELL
Humberto: oom-BAIR-toh
Imelda: ee-MEHL-dah
Jerry: JEHR-ee
Karen: KAIR-ren
Lorenzo: loh-REN-zoh
Melissa: meh-LIH-suh
Nestor: NES-tor
Olga: OAL-guh
Pablo: PAHB-lo
Rebekah: reh-BEH-kuh
Sebastien: se-BAS-tee-en
Tanya: TAHN-yuh
Van: van
Wendy: WEN-dee
We will start our daily tropical weather coverage on May 15. Download your local site's app to ensure you're always connected to the news. And look for our special subscription offers here.
This article originally appeared on Fort Myers News-Press: Hurricane season's 2025 NHC tropical outlooks to start May 15