Stock market strategy: Buy the dips or sell the rally? What should you do amid India-Pakistan tensions?

Mint

12-05-2025

Stock market strategy: The recent ceasefire between India and Pakistan has led to a significant uptick in the market on Monday. Nevertheless, analysts are adopting a stance of cautious optimism regarding Indian equities. They suggest that India's development into a mature economic and geopolitical force is reflected in its strong position on regional security and its capability to manage recent tensions with Pakistan. On a structural level, the macroeconomic conditions remain solid—India is currently the world's fourth-largest economy, with some of the fastest growth forecasts globally, supported by robust domestic demand and ongoing reforms.
Additionally, Dr. VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments, pointed out that the primary driver of the rally will be the sustained buying by Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs), which has continued for sixteen consecutive days, with the exception of last Friday when the conflict intensified. Domestic economic indicators such as anticipated high GDP growth, expectations of earnings recovery in FY26, along with declining inflation and interest rates, bode well for the market's rally to resume.
The Nifty 50 and the Sensex rose by almost 3% each, reaching 24,723.80 and 81,737.53, respectively, as of 11:42 IST, making strides to regain the 1.5% they dropped following India's strikes on Pakistan on Wednesday.
Mohit Gulati from ITI Growth Opportunities Fund and Prashanth Tapse from Mehta Equities provide insights on stock market strategies in light of tensions between India and Pakistan. They discuss whether investors should buy the dips or sell the rally, and reveal their stance on the matter along with the reasoning behind it.
Mohit Gulati, the CIO and managing partner of ITI Growth Opportunities Fund, believes that structurally, the macroeconomic backdrop remains robust-India is now the world's fourth-largest economy, with growth projections among the fastest globally, underpinned by strong domestic demand and ongoing reforms. However, global risks like trade wars and market volatility should not be underestimated.
Gulati's strategy is to buy the dips in high-quality stocks.
" I've been monitoring for entry points, while taking profits in high-valuation, low-growth names. Selectivity and discipline are key in this environment-focus on fundamentals, stay nimble, and avoid complacency as global uncertainties persist,' said Mohit.
For long-term investors, Prashanth Tapse, Research Analyst, Senior Vice President of Research at Mehta Equities firmly believe in the "Buy the Dips" strategy—executed with a disciplined and stock-specific approach.
Tapse also reasons it by saying that India's economy presents a strong structural growth story, making it one of the fastest-growing major economies globally. Long-term tailwinds such as policy reforms, infrastructure expansion, and digital transformation continue to drive this narrative. In this context, investors should focus on high-quality businesses with strong fundamentals, consistent earnings, and durable competitive advantages.
The presence of huge domestic liquidity, led by persistent participation from retail investors and domestic institutions, acts as a stabilizing force during market corrections. Additionally, the recent India–Pakistan ceasefire agreement is a significant confidence booster—it reduces geopolitical risk premiums and creates a conducive environment for equity investments.
On the other hand, for short-term traders, a "Sell the Rallies" strategy can be more effective, believes Tapse. He explained that particularly when markets are in overbought zones, trading near all-time highs, or when valuations outpace earnings growth. In such scenarios, traders can tactically benefit by booking profits or taking contrarian positions during euphoric rallies, especially in speculative pockets, advised Prashanth.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.