Potential tropical system is making its way along Florida's eastern coastline

Yahoo

2 days ago

And just like that, the tropics have woken up.
The National Hurricane Center is tracking a potential tropical development that's just off Florida's southeastern coast.
At the time of writing, the low-pressure area is still non-tropical, but it could gradually develop some subtropical or tropical characteristics late this week if it manages to stay offshore, according to the NHC.
Chances for development are low through the next week.
Storms associated with the development are moving across portions of South Florida, where four counties are currently under a flood watch.
Meanwhile, a large plume of Saharan dust is moving across the Atlantic from the western African coast and is expected to move over Florida this week.
The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season officially started on June 1, and will run through Nov. 30. Leading forecasters are in agreement that we are likely to see another active and dynamic season.
Here's the latest info from the tropics.
The NHC's 1 p.m. tropical weather outlook placed the non-tropical area of low pressure off the southeastern Florida coast, saying that the system could gain subtropical or even tropical characteristics later this week if stays offshore.
The system is currently moving northeastward around 10-15 mph and has a 10% chance of forming over the next seven days.
A tropical wave has been measured off the western African coast, moving westward at 10 knots. The wave is currently producing scattered thunderstorms in the Atlantic.
Tropical waves are elongated areas of clouds and thunderstorms that tend to move from east to west, according to the National Weather Service.
They don't always strengthen into tropical cyclones or hurricanes, but about 85% of all tropical storms can be traced back to tropical waves, according to AccuWeather.
It should be noted that tropical waves are atmospheric, not the traditional ocean waves some might expect.
In the Atlantic, tropical waves tend to form off the coast of Africa, where winds from the north and south of the equator converge and create a rising motion.
With enough moisture, instability and the right positioning relevant to the equator, the convergence can come together to create a tropical wave, kicking off thunderstorm activity.
The disturbances don't always build up to become tropical cyclones, however. Tropical waves must contend with wind shear and Saharan dust as they track westward, both of which could cause any budding storm to fizzle out before reaching the Caribbean Sea's warm waters and moist air.
Not at the moment.
If the potential tropical system currently off the Florida coast does develop, it's unlikely to have major impacts on the Sunshine State, given its current timeline.
NOAA's current map shows any potential development occurring along the coastline of the Carolinas and Georgia, with minor impacts along Florida's northeastern coast.
AccuWeather meteorologists said while the area off the southeastern coast of the U.S. has a low risk for development, heavy rain, rip currents and rough surf are all possible from mid- to late week.
Another area being watched for potential tropical development between June 8 and June 13 is the western Caribbean and eastern Gulf.
The first plume of Saharan dust reached South Florida over the weekend, but a larger one is expected to engulf the entire state by mid week.
Saharan dust, also referred to as the Saharan Dust Layer (SAL), is an outbreak of dust from the Sahara Desert that has been kicked up about a mile into the air by tropical waves in the Atlantic.
"We're currently seeing a massive plume of dust moving east through the Caribbean," said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert, said in an email Monday afternoon.
"It's about 2,000 miles wide from east to west, stretching from Jamaica all the way past Barbados. North to south, it's about 750 miles, spanning from Trinidad and Tobago in the south to north of Puerto Rico.
"That gives you a sense of the scale; it's essentially a wall of dust. While it's not uncommon for dust to cross the Atlantic, this is one of the larger plumes we've seen so far this season. It's not necessarily unusual, but definitely on the stronger side."
"We expect it to arrive in the U.S. late in the week. Florida could see enhanced sunsets as early as Thursday, and the dust could spread into parts of the northern Gulf Coast — places like Houston, New Orleans, and Baton Rouge — by Friday into Saturday," DaSilva said.
"While it's not rare for this dust to travel across the Atlantic and affect the southern U.S., it usually only happens a couple of times a year. This appears to be the largest plume we've seen in 2025 so far."
"It's an expansive plume, something that is typical for this time of year," said Fox Weather meteorologist Bob Van Dillen said via email Monday.
"It doesn't look as deep of a layer as the models had predicted last week, but it's still should be enough for Floridians to notice a haze in the air. Sunrises and sets should feature more of a darker red hue as well, stating Wednesday and peaking Friday/Saturday. The heaviest concentration of dust looks like Central Florida at this point. This will be the biggest push of Saharan dust into Florida so far this year.'
The Caribbean and Gulf are seeing fairly typical summer weather patterns. A leftover front in the northeast Gulf and an upper-level low are producing scattered storms around Florida and the northwest Caribbean.
All of the major forecasters have released their outlooks for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, which lean toward another active one. Here's a brief look at their forecasts:
CSU hurricane season predictions
Named storms: 17 (14.4 average)
Hurricanes: 9 (7.2 average)
Major hurricanes: 4 (3.2 average)
NOAA hurricane season predictions
Named storms: 13-19
Hurricanes: 6-10
Major hurricanes: 3-5
AccuWeather hurricane season predictions
Named storms: 13-18
Hurricanes: 7-10
Major hurricanes: 3-5
It won't come as a surprise to any Florida resident that the Sunshine State is probably going to see some sort of storm activity this hurricane season. The real question is how bad will it be?
'Everyone should realize that it is impossible to precisely predict this season's hurricane activity in early April,' CSU wrote in its forecast, so don't expect a direct number of potential named storms or hurricanes to pop up.
What the current hurricane forecast can do is predict how likely Florida, and any other state, is to see at least one named storm, hurricane or even major hurricane − and Florida tops the list.
Out of 18 states, Florida leads the pack with a whopping 92% probability of seeing a named storm in 2025. That's a big number but not exactly a bold claim. About 41% of all hurricanes that have made landfall in the United States since 1851 have made landfall right here in Florida.
For a quick comparison, that's 16% higher than South Carolina, which is the second-most-likely state to be hit by a named storm this year.
Florida again tops the list with a 65% probability of seeing a hurricane and a 35% chance of seeing a major hurricane (Category 3+). Louisiana and North Carolina tie for second with a 46% chance of seeing a hurricane. Texas is the second-most likely state to see a major hurricane at 19%.
Contributors: Cheryl McCloud -- USA TODAY NETWORK FLORIDA
This article originally appeared on Pensacola News Journal: NHC tracking possible tropical system off southeastern Florida coast