How the 2025 college football season could go wrong for every preseason AP Top 25 team

New York Times

a day ago

For fans of teams who start this season ranked in the AP preseason Top 25, here are four words that should scare the heck out of you: No. 10 Florida State.
Not to pick on the Seminoles — too late — but going from 13-1 in 2023 to 2-10 last year was an unprecedented and epic year-over-year collapse.
Florida State is the most extreme cautionary tale of overreliance on the transfer portal and, more generally, how a season of high hopes can go horribly wrong. The Noles were college football's most disappointing team last year, but they certainly were not alone.
Since the poll expanded to a Top 25 in 1989, an average of 9.5 teams ranked in the preseason have finished unranked each year. Those numbers are trending up, though, as college football becomes more unpredictable.
In 3 of the last 4 years, the preseason-final poll turnover is over 50% and the trend since 1989 (the Top 25 era) is gradually increasing. (corrected link)https://t.co/IRb5nQAZc5 https://t.co/5HmFh5DvxD pic.twitter.com/YjYTEl6bWz
— College Poll Archive (@CollPollArchive) August 8, 2025
In 2024, 13 teams went from preseason ranked to unranked, including Michigan, Utah, LSU, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. The 2023 poll was one of the most 'accurate' with only eight preseason ranked teams finishing unranked. But in 2022 that number was a record high 15.
An average of 1.7 preseason top-10 teams have finished unranked, including No. 9 Michigan and the aforementioned Seminoles last year.
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On the flip side, a little more than half the preseason top-10 teams (5.6) on average have finished in the top 10, including six in four of the past five seasons. And about two teams per season have gone from unranked in the preseason to top-10 in the final poll. Last year, there were three: No. 7 Arizona State, No. 8 Boise State and No. 10 Indiana.
As you might expect, the teams at the bottom of the rankings are really tenuous. In both 2022 and '24, every team ranked from No. 20 to No. 25 in the preseason finished unranked.
So, maybe temper your expectations.
Here is what could lead to a disappointing season for each ranked team.
The Longhorns have to replace four offensive linemen currently in NFL camps, including three NFL Draft picks. There is a lot of confidence in offensive coordinator and line coach Kyle Flood's ability to recruit and develop, but growing pains at that position could undermine Arch Manning's first season as the starting quarterback.
What if it wasn't the receivers holding Drew Allar back but vice versa? Allar has left a lot to be desired against the best competition. Head coach James Franklin flipped the receiver room through the transfer portal to give his quarterback more weapons, but without further improvement from Allar, it might not matter.
The Buckeyes are replacing 14 NFL Draft picks (seven in the first two rounds). To further complicate the transition, Ryan Day also has two new coordinators. Brian Hartline was promoted to call plays for the first time, and former NFL coach Matt Patricia was brought in to run the defense. The NFL-to-college-defensive-coordinator track has been working out fairly well for schools, but the combination of new quarterback and new offensive coordinator has high glitch potential.
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The Tigers have excellent defensive players (edge T.J. Parker, tackle Peter Woods and cornerback Avieon Terrell, to name a few) but did not play good defense in 2024. Head coach Dabo Swinney hired Tom Allen as defensive coordinator to clean up the sloppiness, but that could be a lot to ask for a team that ranked 99th in the country in yards allowed per rush (4.71).
The Bulldogs were unusually ordinary — at best — last year in two areas where they are usually elite: stopping the run (31st in the country) and running the ball (84th). The latter certainly should get better, but how much better after major turnover on both lines?
The Fighting Irish have a new defensive coordinator in Chris Ash after Al Golden left for the NFL and are replacing the spine of an excellent defense, with new starters at defensive tackle, middle linebacker and safety. Talent shouldn't be a problem, but effective schemes and leadership will be harder to replicate.
The Ducks had three defensive linemen drafted in the first three rounds in April, and both starting offensive tackles were also picked. Dan Lanning's talent acquisition and development machine will be tested. Nothing is tougher to replace than big, athletic bodies.
Ty Simpson reportedly has earned the Week 1 start, but if the old saying about having multiple quarterbacks means you have none applies, Kalen DeBoer's second season in Tuscaloosa could be similar to his first.
The Tigers leaned into the transfer portal to patch holes in the defense. They went down this road a couple of years ago and flamed out. This time the shopping spree was better funded, but if that doesn't produce better results, LSU will remain a notch behind the best of the best in the SEC.
Quarterback Carson Beck's health isn't the only question hanging over Miami's season. The Hurricanes are also relying on a totally rebuilt receiving corps, so two aspects of their passing game have a lot to prove.
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The Sun Devils rode a wave of upstart momentum to a Big 12 title that will be hard to recreate, especially with the heart and soul of the team, Cam Skattebo, on to the NFL. Like the team one spot below it, Arizona State needs to play better this season to replicate its 2024 record.
Coach Bret Bielema has done a great job this offseason pumping up his team, one of the most experienced in the country. But here's the thing: The Illini don't just need to be as good as last year. They need to be a good deal better to have any chance of matching 2024's 10-3 record after ranking 60th in the country in defense and 63rd in offense in 2024.
Betting on a big follow-up for the Gamecocks after last season's nine-win breakthrough is putting a lot on LaNorris Sellers' growth, considering how much South Carolina lost around the talented quarterback and on what was one of the most talented defenses in the country.
The Wolverines' passing game was Stone Age-level last season. To fix it, they brought in highly touted freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood and fifth-year multi-time transfer Mikey Keene. The bar for improvement is incredibly low. Better might still be not particularly good.
Nothing is more important to the Gators' success than quarterback DJ Lagway's health, but something similar can be said for just about any team. The difference between living up to this ranking and falling flat against a difficult schedule comes down to whether coach Billy Napier and his staff are up to the task of getting the most out of the talented roster they built.
Most of the players who formed one of the most disruptive defenses in the country need to be replaced. There could be a significant dropoff on that side of the ball against a much tougher ACC draw that now includes Clemson and Miami.
Can a rebuilt offensive line come together well enough to pave the way for the Avery Johnson third-year breakout that Wildcats fans are hoping leads to a Big 12 title?
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The hope is Washington State transfer John Mateer brings his swashbuckling style to the SEC and immediately becomes one of the best quarterbacks in the league. But what's the exchange rate on nearly 4,000 yards from scrimmage and 44 total touchdowns going from playing Utah State, San Diego State and Fresno State to maybe the toughest schedule in the country?
The Aggies defense was less than the sum of its parts last season, managing to be barely mediocre despite having three defensive linemen drafted in the first three rounds. The back end is really experienced, but questions remain about whether this unit finds a pass rush.
The Hoosiers' stingy defensive performance of 2024 will be tough to repeat against — here it comes — what should be a much tougher Big Ten schedule.
The total makeover of both offensive and defensive lines will determine whether Lane Kiffin's team can be in Playoff contention again. Most of the players that produced a nation-high 4.0 sacks per game are gone.
The Cyclones had two receivers (Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel) selected among the first 80 players in the last NFL Draft. That kind of talent doesn't grow on trees in Ames. Sure, quarterback Rocco Becht is a baller, but he completed only 59 percent of his passes at 7.7 yards per attempt with those guys. Can he get better without them?
The Red Raiders won the offseason with a portal spending spree that has fans in Lubbock believing they are bringing an SEC roster to the Big 12 title race. It's an open question whether coach Joey McGuire can bring it all together and keep this group on point when and if adversity hits in the first half of the season.
Even if you believe Nico Iamaleava was never going to be much better than he was last year, there is a very good chance the Vols are about to get worse at quarterback. That means the running game without Dylan Sampson will have to be even better and the defense will have to be lockdown again.
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Life after Heisman runner-up Ashton Jeanty could prove to be even more challenging than expected. The Broncos' roster still looks solid enough to be the best Group of 5 team in the country, but there is a lot less room for error without Jeanty's ability to totally change a game.
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