INR vs USD: Rupee strengthens against US dollar amid Fed rate cut bets, US-China trade deal. Where's rupee headed now?

Mint

2 days ago

Rupee appreciated 8 paise against the US dollar on Thursday, led by a weak American currency, amid rising expectations of US Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. A fall in crude oil prices also supported the local currency, while outflows of foreign funds from the Indian stock market capped further gains.
The rupee opened 8 paise higher at 85.43 against the US dollar from its previous close, before falling to 85.46. The rupee had settled at 85.51 against the US dollar on Wednesday.
The US dollar index, which gauges the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, fell 0.07% to 99.02.
'US-China trade deal is negating the trade war and starting a risk-on sentiment supporting emerging markets, including India. US inflation data has amplified market expectations of a Fed rate cut, further fueling dollar weakness and global risk-on appetite. Adding to the dynamics, Wednesday's US Treasury auction saw robust demand, with bids reaching 2.52 times the amount on offer. This renewed confidence drove yields down towards 4.4%, reducing the dollar's appeal,' said Amit Pabari, MD, CR Forex Advisors.
Investors will watch out for India's retail inflation data or CPI data later today, which could determine the range for the rupee.
'The dollar index weakened below 98.5, approaching its lowest levels since early 2022, following renewed tariff threats from President Donald Trump. The dollar has faced sustained selling pressure this year as trade policy uncertainty continues to erode investor confidence in US assets,' said Jigar Trivedi, Senior Research Analyst at Reliance Securities.
A fall in crude oil prices also supported gains in the local currency. Brent crude oil prices dropped 0.39% to $69.50 per barrel in the futures trade.
The Indian stock market traded lower after opening in the green. The 30-share BSE Sensex was down 135.78 points, or 0.16%, at 82,379.36, while Nifty 50 fell 35.40 points, or 0.14%, to 25,104 . 35.
Jigar Trivedi said that the outlook for the US dollar index is bearish, and for the intraday today, 98.00 is the support and resistance is 99.20.
According to Amit Pabari, the USDINR pair is likely to face strong resistance near 85.80 - 86.00, while an immediate support is at 85.40 - 85.50.
'A breach on either side of the zone could trigger a sharp momentum of 50 paise in that direction. Given the recent surge in crude prices, the rupee is likely to find support and move towards the 85.80 – 86.00 levels,' said Pabari.
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