Stavropol boosts Russian wheat hopes despite Rostov drought

Straits Times

5 days ago

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KUTEINIKOVO, Russia - Two of Russia's top wheat-growing regions are having very different years as Rostov endures a second year of drought while good weather in Stavropol promises record output.
That should keep supply from the world's largest exporter steady and could see Stavropol dethrone Rostov as its biggest wheat-growing region, according to forecasts.
In Rostov, where the harvesting campaign will start this month, Governor Yuri Slyusar has warned that this year's crop could fall by 20% from last year's 10.1 million tons, to its lowest level since 2015.
He has declared a state of agricultural emergency in 10 districts, a move that facilitates state aid payments to farmers.
Although frosts this spring were milder, drought is now seen as the main risk. Short rains in May did not help to retain moisture in the soil.
"It's another bad year for us. The seedlings have been affected by drought since last autumn. The wheat is weak. This year, it suffered from frost, and now the drought is finishing it off," said Maxim Zolotaryov, an agronomist at Luch farm in Rostov's Chertkov district.
Chertkov has been hit hardest by bad weather in 2024 and 2025. Yields last year fell by 61% to 1.7 metric tons per hectare compared to about 3.4 tons in the United States.
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Zolotaryov pointed to green plants in dry land and said that normally at this time of the year the stems are higher.
He said some farmers have experimented with other crops but ultimately decided to stick to wheat given its guaranteed export demand.
RECORD HARVEST
In contrast, analysts expect a bumper crop in Stavropol, south of Rostov, where the weather has been much better with 30% more rain so far this year.
That is underpinning hopes for government forecasts that see Russia's grain harvest this year at 135 million metric tons, up 4% from 2024. The wheat harvest is seen at 90 million tons this year.
"We expect a record harvest in Stavropol this year, it will become the leading region in terms of wheat production," said Dmitry Rylko, head of the IKAR consultancy.
A Reuters calculation shows that the wheat crop in Stavropol, which harvested 7.8 million tons in 2024, will need to exceed 8 million tons to top Rostov.
Local agriculture officials say part of the increase in rain was due to the use of the "cloud seeding" technology where clouds are sprayed with silver iodide from planes.
Krasnodar is Russia's other top wheat-growing region, which collected 9.9 million tons last year.
Krasnodar Governor Veniamin Kondratyev said in March he hoped the region would harvest no less this year, but with drought in some parts of the region this figure is now in doubt.
Russia's more northern regions have also been boosting agricultural output as it gets warmer. For example, the mostly industrial Perm region next to the Urals Mountains posted a 30% jump in wheat output in 2024.
Fertiliser supply to northern regions, including Perm, has tripled in the last decade, according to producer Uralchem.
Deputy Agriculture Minister Andrei Razin said in March that average temperatures in Russia are expected to rise by 1.5 degrees between 1976 and 2030, with previously unused lands in the north and east being brought into agricultural production.
Russia's long-term grain market strategy calls for a combination of efforts to maintain existing yields in the south while bringing new lands into use.
EXPENSES, EQUIPMENT
In addition to demanding weather conditions, Russia's farmers face other challenges, including interest rates at their highest level since the early 2000s and sanctions that hobble their access to new Western machinery or spares.
"Due to the increase in the key interest rate, loans have become very expensive. As of today, every farmer is calculating their finances, capabilities, and the feasibility of acquiring new equipment," said Alexei Shantaliy, a local administration official for farming in Chertkov.
Farmers also complain about a rise in input costs such as fertilizers and fuel. Crops grown with lower inputs often have lower yields.
"Today we are striving to minimize expenses to at least break even," said Alexander Plakhov, director of Luch farm.
Farmers say that challenging weather requires more intensive use of machinery during short time windows to sow or harvest quickly while conditions permit.
Yet the machinery on many farms is aging and equipment is often out of order due to a lack of spare parts, making it hard for farmers to move quickly during sowing and harvesting campaigns.
Farmers have experimented with other crops but ultimately decided to stick to wheat with its guaranteed demand for export, said Zolotaryov. REUTERS