
Bloomberg Surveillance: Market Optimism
Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF. Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul Sweeney June 9th, 2025 Featuring: 1) Ben Laidler, Head of Equity Strategy at Bradesco BBI, joins for an extended discussion on equity bullishness and where he believes the S&P can land in 2025. The S&P 500 benchmark is nearing all-time highs, but traders are searching for catalysts for sustained advances amid ongoing trade uncertainty. 2) Henrietta Treyz, co-founder at Veda Partners, joins to discuss DC headlines including the riots in LA and latest on the tax bill after Elon Musk's White House fallout. Senate Republicans plan to propose revised tax and health-care provisions to President Trump's $3 trillion economic package, despite criticism from Elon Musk. 3) Charles Kantor, Senior Portfolio Manager at Neuberger Berman, talks about why history rhymes between now and the 2000 .com bubble and the potential for a consumer crunch. Markets are focusing on a $22 billion auction of 30-year bonds on Thursday and Wednesday's US inflation report for May, which may show a slightly faster pace of price increases. 4) Lisa Mateo joins with the latest headlines in newspapers across the US, including Bloomberg reporting on baseball's TV deal and WSJ's look at Father's Day gifts.
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Bloomberg
27 minutes ago
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Newsom Tells Trump's Border Czar to 'Arrest Me, Let's Go'
Civil rights lawyer Robert McWhirter weighs in on the legal basis for President Donald Trump sending in National Guard troops to handle the anti-deportation violent protests in Los Angeles. California Governor Gavin Newsom, a Democrat, dared Trump's border czar to "arrest me, lets go." McWhirter says he'd take Newsom's case. (Source: Bloomberg)

Business Insider
28 minutes ago
- Business Insider
Morgan Stanley shares a chart that fuels the argument for new stock-market highs
Morgan Stanley is growing more optimistic about the stock market as earnings revisions breadth improves. Improving breadth is being driven by more upward revisions, the bank said. The market is likely to overlook softer hard data in favor of forward-looking views of strong earnings. The vibes in the stock market are improving, and it's boosting the case for prices to rise from here. That's according to a note from Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson. The bank's CIO and chief stock strategist pointed to a key signal that's sending a bullish signal: a sharp rebound in earnings revisions breadth, or the proportion of analysts who have raised their estimates minus the proportion who have lowered them. The indicator is now at -10%, a noticeable improvement from -25% during the height of tariff uncertainty in April, an indication that sentiment is recovering. The bank believes the indicator will continue to trend upward. A weak dollar could further bolster this earnings gauge, as US companies that do a lot of business overseas receive a boost in sales when the dollar is weaker. Once earnings revisions breadth turns positive, investors should expect forward EPS predictions to trend higher. Earnings revision breadth can be driven by either fewer downward revisions or more upward revisions. According to Morgan Stanley, the latter is the case today, which is good news for investors. More upward revisions tend to result in stronger overall stock market performance, historically leading to a 13% increase in the S&P 500 over a 12-month span. When fewer downward revisions are the driving factor, the S&P 500 has historically returned 8% over the next 12 months. Morgan Stanley's 12-month price target for the S&P 500 is 6,500, a potential gain of 8% from current levels. Investors should pay more attention to the improvement in forward-looking earnings revision breadth rather than lagging hard data, according to Morgan Stanley. The bank sees April stock market lows as the end of a year-long trend of downward earnings revisions, and expects the rate of change on earnings revision breadth to be the primary driver of equity prices going forward. "In our experience, when revisions breadth is accelerating in a V-shaped manner from an extreme low, equity markets typically remain supported and pullbacks remain shallow and unsatisfying (like the past 6 weeks)," Wilson wrote. The recent outperformance of cyclical stocks also points to a market more focused on forward-looking earnings revisions than backward-looking hard data. These areas of the market are especially sensitive to economic growth and earnings, and they're picking up momentum and providing a tailwind to the overall stock market. While it's possible that inflation could creep up over the summer as the pull-forward effect of tariffs fades, Morgan Stanley believes the bulk of the tariff pain appears to be already priced in following the April 2 tariff announcements. Policy headwinds should ease soon, as Trump's term began by front-loading disruptive tariff policies and will transition to more pro-growth initiatives like deregulation and tax cuts. Over the last month, the market has has rallied over 20% from April lows despite a first quarter GDP contraction weakening manufacturing data. As long as earnings revisions breadth continues trending upwards, Morgan Stanley believes the stock market will continue to overlook short term weakness in hard data.


WIRED
32 minutes ago
- WIRED
The Trump Administration Is Turning ICE Raids and Protests Into Reality TV
Jun 9, 2025 2:44 PM Whether creating its own memes or working with celebrities like "Dr. Phil" McGraw, the government is treating a volatile situation in Los Angeles like content. Photo-Illustration: Wired Staff;Since the very beginning of the year, President Donald Trump's administration has worked to build a self-sustaining digital media ecosystem in support of its controversial immigration policies. That system is now working overtime as protests bubble up in Los Angeles and get planned across the country, spawning an onslaught of AI-generated slop and reality television-style content. Protests broke out on Friday shortly after ICE officers conducted a series of raids targeting Latino communities in Los Angeles. Reality star Phil 'Dr. Phil' McGraw and the camera crew for his new Merit TV network embedded with immigration officials during Immigration and Customs Enforcement's (ICE) Friday's raids, CNN reported. Merit TV announced in a press release that its footage will be aired throughout a '2-Night Television Event' on Monday and Tuesday. The broadcast includes an exclusive one-on-one interview with Trump's border czar Tom Homan. (There is already an interview with Homan currently streaming on Merit TV's site.) 'Dr. Phil and Tom Homan break down the multi-agency raid targeting cartel-linked businesses in LA's garment district,' states the Merit TV email about Monday night's program. 'With $80 million in undeclared imports uncovered, $17 million in unpaid tariffs identified, and 41 undocumented immigrants detained, the high-impact operation drew fierce public protests. Homan addresses the growing backlash and explains the zero-tolerance policy for interference with federal enforcement.' It's unclear where the highly specific numbers mentioned in the press email come from, or what the source of information is for the claim that affected businesses are tied to cartels. Homan and other heads of law enforcement agencies have repeatedly threatened protesters and even California politicians with arrest. Trump also said he would arrest California Governor Gavin Newsom. MAGA's independent influencers also spent the weekend parroting the Trump administration's talking points. On Sunday, Rogan O'Handley, who goes by DC Draino online, posted what appears to be an AI-generated video on Instagram of Trump pummeling a man holding a Mexican flag on a dirt bike. As the man falls over, a triumphant Trump raises the flag which magically transforms into an American one. 'MAGA won the popular vote and this is what we want,' the caption of the post reads. It currently has more than 50,000 likes. Charlie Kirk, the founder of Turning Point USA and host of an eponymous podcast, posted to X in an apparent attempt to rally the right's outrage over LA into support for the Trump administration's budget plans. 'Infuriated about what you are seeing in LA? Pass the BBB [Big Beautiful Bill]. Watch this and support the bill. We must reclaim America,' Kirk posted on Monday. This didn't come out of nowhere. The Trump administration's crackdown on immigration has been broadcasted across television and the internet for months, as influencers and content creators have been invited to participate in broadcasts and ride-a-longs with Department of Homeland Security (DHS) officials. 'That's been a pretty routine thing. Libs of TikTok was embedded, Tomi Lahren.' CJ Pearson, a conservative influencer tells WIRED of the ridealongs. 'I've been asked as well, so, I think there definitely will be more to come.' In January, agencies assisting with immigration crackdowns were told to be camera-ready, CNN reported. In February, DHS launched a multi-million dollar ad campaign featuring a clip of Kristi Noem, the secretary of DHS, warning undocumented immigrants that they would be deported if they did not choose to leave on their own. These ads were 'hyper-targeted' to 'reach illegal immigrants in the interior of the United States, as well as internally,' according to a February DHS press release. 'If you are here illegally, we will find you and deport you. You will never return,' Noem says in the ad. 'But if you leave now, you may have an opportunity to return and enjoy our freedom and live the American Dream.' Noem has traveled to El Salvador for content as well. In March, she filmed a notorious video, where she stood in front of prisoners at El Salvador's infamous CECOT prison. 'If you come to our country illegally, this is one of the consequences,' Noem said. In April, the far-right influencer Chaya Raichik, who runs the massive Libs of TikTok account on X, joined DHS Secretary Kristi Noem during an immigration enforcement operation in Phoenix, Arizona, posting 'exclusive footage' to her more than four million followers. Both Raichik and Noem wore bullet proof vests with ICE badges pinned to their chests. A DHS spokesperson did not immediately respond to a request for comment from WIRED.