Unlocking Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s power could push Blue Jays from great to terrifying

New York Times

25-07-2025

TORONTO — As the thumping beat of a post-win playlist filled the Toronto Blue Jays' clubhouse, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s locker sat empty. Most players stood by their stalls, packing up to quickly leave the ballpark. A few others lingered on the outfield turf, greeting family and friends after a win over the San Francisco Giants. Guerrero was not among them.
Advertisement
Instead, Toronto's $500 million franchise player stood in the batting cage tucked within the bowels of Rogers Centre. One of the franchise's top sluggers, Edwin Encarnación, looked on, perched on a high-top chair as Guerrero gripped a bat with both hands and stepped up to a tee.
In many ways, Guerrero's 2025 campaign has been undeniably good. By the metric wRC+, he's hitting 35 percent better than the league average. He's chasing less than ever before and on pace for a 13.6 percent walk rate, which would be a career high. He's the most valuable player, by Baseball Reference WAR, on the top team in the American League East. For most players, it would be the best season of their career. But Guerrero's established ceiling is higher — the kind that earned him the third-largest contract in MLB history. His ceiling is greatness.
It's a hunt for that peak that sent Guerrero to the cage even after a Blue Jays win. He was held to a lone single in the preceding contest and grounded into an early double play that snuffed out a scoring chance. It was his 14th straight game without a home run. So there Guerrero stood, 30 minutes after the final pitch, searching for his signature swing.
'Sometimes,' Guerrero said, 'when you don't feel right at the plate, instead of going home and watching videos, I can just go in there and try to enjoy myself, try to put my mind to the next day. For me, that helps me a lot to calm down and believe in myself.'
Guerrero says he feels good and his swing feels mostly right. 'When we're winning, everything is good for me,' he said. In seven games since the All-Star break, he's hit .444 and driven in six runs. But the difference between Guerrero's 2025 campaign and the previous heights remains clear. He's on pace for 21 home runs, nine fewer than last year. His .448 slugging percentage is nearly 100 points lower than in 2025. The contrast lies in the power.
Advertisement
Perhaps it's nitpicking the best player on one of baseball's best teams. The way the 2025 Jays are constructed, with role player heroism and many platoons, they haven't required a carrying force. But if there's a hitter who can put the entire roster in a backpack and run them up a hill, it's Guerrero — that's why the Blue Jays gave him a half-billion dollars to anchor the franchise until 2040.
'It's not a secret,' manager John Schneider said. 'We don't need Vlad to be Superman, but we need him to be him. You know what I mean? And by power standards, right, probably everyone's looking for a little bit more.'
Guerrero's intermittent power, hitting coach David Popkins said, is rooted in a season-long search for his 'A-Swing' — the smooth, natural slash that punishes mistake pitches. His batting average on offerings right down the middle (.373) is the lowest since his rookie season. Last year, it was .517. He still makes consistent contact. He unleashes the league's highest exit velocities, and his expected wOBA is the ninth highest in baseball. But the powerful hits find dirt more often than the outfield bleachers.
The search for that A-Swing spans across cage work, batting practice and games. Guerrero works closely with practically every coach on the Blue Jays staff, from the trio of hitting coaches to a special assistant in Encarnación and bench coach Don Mattingly. Each has their strengths — Encarnación helps with mindset, and the hitting coaches bring expertise on daily game plans, pre-pitch hand slots and swing timing. It's a lot of help to foster the best from the franchise player, but it's on Guerrero to distill that advice into one swing.
'You listen, but not everything they're gonna tell you is gonna be good for you,' Guerrero said. 'But you have to listen. And to me, you can add something from everyone. Like Edwin told me something, Donnie taught me something, like the hitting coaches. And then I can realize and say, 'OK, I might take this, I might take this, I might take this.' So to me, doesn't matter that a lot of people talk to me. Of course, I know how to hit, and I can pull all that together.'
Advertisement
There are moments when Guerrero looks tantalizingly close — a single swing that teases a gargantuan hot streak. Against the Giants, he lashed at a misplaced Robbie Ray slider. With a blistering bat crack, the crowd instantly roared. They immediately knew where the ball would land. The swing snapped Guerrero's 14-game homer drought, depositing a pitch in the left-centre bleachers.
But even that trip around the bases doesn't tell Guerrero he's locked in — it's not quite the A-Swing indicator. Of Guerrero's 13 homers this season, 11 have been pulled. Last year, 18 of his 30 blasts went straightaway or to the opposite field. It's those line drives to right-centre, Guerrero said, that inform the first baseman his swing is locked in. This year, at least on homers, those drives have largely eluded him.
'Right now, he's close to where he wants to be,' Encarnación said. 'His timing, the rhythm. I don't worry much about the numbers he has right now. He's going to get there in September, the numbers are going to be there.'
Amid the search for his ceiling, Guerrero adjusted. He's found ways to drive balls with his 'B-Swing,' Popkins said, like the yanked inside pitch in Wednesday's win over the Yankees, skittering a ball into the left-field corner to cash George Springer from first. There's a patience in Guerrero's approach, as well.
Making some noise 🔥 pic.twitter.com/jIPGWX69CC
— Toronto Blue Jays (@BlueJays) July 24, 2025
You can't show opposing pitchers you're going to take, the slugger said, but he's swinging less than ever before and on pace for a career high in walks. In past seasons, the weight of Toronto's run-scoring success fell squarely on Guerrero's shoulders — a power dip like this would've sunk the entire team. But this year, the Jays' lineup gives Guerrero reason for faith — justification to walk. There's a trust that appears when ball four whizzes by the zone and Guerrero spins his bat toward the dugout as Bo Bichette steps up behind him. Bichette is on pace for 93 RBIs, second most in his career. Addison Barger hits .365 with 20 RBIs in 17 games in the five-hole.
'For as pedestrian as his season may be,' Schneider said. 'I think that his walk rate being where it is shows that he is not trying to do too much.'
Through it all, the A-Swing search continues. There's unwavering confidence in every word spoken about Guerrero's season. It's never 'if' the home runs will come, but 'when.' Encarnación says he's close. Popkins and Schneider say he's one swing away. The first baseman, himself, said the long balls will soon come in bunches.
Advertisement
If that undeniable power streak never arrives, Toronto's offence could be fine. They rank ninth in runs scored, entering Thursday, and are jockeying for the best record in baseball. But there's a ceiling to Guerrero's offence that hasn't flashed yet this season. If it does — if he finds that 'A-Swing' — the Jays could shift from serious contenders to something much scarier. So the search continues.
'He cares, man,' Encarnación said. 'He cares about hitting, and he wants to win. He wants to continue to help this team win games and make history. That's why you see him hitting, even after the game.'