
Shoe Carnival Reports First Quarter Fiscal 2025 Results
FORT MILL, S.C.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Shoe Carnival, Inc. (Nasdaq: SCVL) (the 'Company'), a leading retailer of footwear and accessories for the family, today reported results for the first quarter ended May 3, 2025 and reaffirmed its previously issued Fiscal 2025 outlook.
First Quarter Fiscal 2025 Highlights
Profits outperformed market expectations by over 10 percent with $0.34 EPS achieved.
Rebanner strategy delivered double-digit comparable net sales growth and accretive margins.
Shoe Station banner net sales grew 4.9 percent while family footwear industry declined.
Accelerated expansion plan: Shoe Station to represent over 80 percent of the store fleet by March 2027.
Balance sheet strengthened with no debt and over 30 percent additional cash on hand compared to first quarter 2024.
'Our first quarter results reflect the continued success of our strategic transformation, with profits outperforming expectations by approximately 10 percent despite the challenging macroeconomic and retail environment,' said Mark Worden, President and Chief Executive Officer. 'The Shoe Station growth strategy is working exceptionally well, delivering industry-leading sales growth and accretive margins across diverse market types. This consistent outperformance versus both Shoe Carnival and industry trends across all footwear categories has given us the confidence to accelerate our rebanner initiative.'
Mr. Worden continued, 'Today, we're announcing an ambitious expansion of our rebanner strategy, with Shoe Station now expected to represent over 80 percent of our store fleet by March 2027, up from our previous target of 51 percent. We're making these investments from a position of financial strength, with growing cash reserves and no debt. This is a pivotal moment for our company as we transform from a traditional family footwear retailer to a premium brand-focused national leader in footwear.'
First Quarter Operating Results
In first quarter 2025, the Company's Shoe Station banner contributed a 4.9 percent increase in net sales compared to first quarter 2024. These industry-leading results were primarily driven by double-digit comparable stores net sales growth from the Company's rebanner strategy. The Company's Shoe Carnival banner contributed a net sales decline of 10.0 percent. First quarter 2025 net sales from Rogan's, which was acquired on February 13, 2024, were in-line with integration and synergy plans and exceeded $19 million in both first quarter 2025 and first quarter 2024.
Total Company net sales in first quarter 2025 declined 7.5 percent to $277.7 million as compared to $300.4 million in first quarter 2024. Comparable stores net sales declined 8.1 percent, of which the Company estimates approximately 1 percent was due to lost sales as impacted by the rebanner strategy.
First quarter 2025 gross profit margin was 34.5 compared to 35.6 percent in first quarter 2024. Gross profit margin included a 50 basis point increase in merchandise margin while buying, distribution and occupancy costs decreased gross profit margin by 160 basis points primarily due to deleverage from lower net sales.
First quarter 2025 selling, general, and administrative costs ('SG&A') decreased $0.5 million. SG&A increases associated with the rebanner strategy were more than offset by the timing of selling expenses from other stores. As a percent of net sales, SG&A were 30.2 percent in first quarter 2025 compared to 28.1 percent in first quarter 2024, with rebanner investment as the primarily driver of this increase.
First quarter 2025 net income was $9.3 million, or $0.34 per diluted share ('EPS'), compared to first quarter 2024 net income of $17.3 million, or $0.63 per diluted share. The Company estimates first quarter 2025 EPS was negatively impacted by approximately $0.15 of rebanner strategy investment, inclusive of store closing costs, amortization of new store construction costs, a four-to-six-week store closure period through each store's grand opening, customer acquisition costs and other costs.
Capital Management and Cash Flow
The 2024 fiscal year end marked the 20th consecutive year the Company ended a year with no debt, fully funding its operations, acquisitions and investments from operating cash flow. In first quarter 2025, the Company also funded its operations without incurring any debt and growing its cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities $23.5 million compared to balances at the end of first quarter 2024. At the end of first quarter 2025, the Company had approximately $93.0 million available to fund growth objectives.
During first quarter 2025, the Company invested $16.8 million in additional merchandise inventory compared to inventories at the end of first quarter 2024. Additional inventory purchases were made in first quarter 2025 in advance of the tariff increases announced on April 2nd. Rebanner-related expense and these accelerated inventory purchases were the primary drivers of negative cash flow from operating activities in first quarter 2025.
In first quarter 2025, capital expenditures totaled $13.3 million and primarily reflect the 24 stores rebannered and one new store opened.
As of May 3, 2025, the Company had $50 million available for future repurchases under its share repurchase program. During first quarter 2025, the Company did not repurchase any shares.
The Company paid a $0.15 per share quarterly cash dividend on April 21, 2025. On an annualized basis, this dividend is a 238 percent increase compared to the rate paid to shareholders five years ago. The dividend paid in first quarter 2025 marked the 11th consecutive year the Company increased its dividend, and the Company has now paid a dividend for 52 consecutive quarters.
Store Count
As of May 3, 2025, the Company had 429 stores, with 334 Shoe Carnival stores, 67 Shoe Station stores and 28 Rogan's stores. The Shoe Station store count has more than doubled since the end of first quarter 2024.
Shoe Station Rebanner Strategy Acceleration
Shoe Station has been the industry's fastest growing retailer over the last two years, according to industry data. Over this same period, the Company's Shoe Carnival banner and the family footwear industry have experienced declines. Earlier this year, the Company announced plans to grow its Shoe Station banner from a market leader in the Southeast into a national footwear and accessories leader. As part of this plan, the Company rebannered 10 stores during a test phase in Fiscal 2024 and rebannered 24 stores in first quarter 2025.
The Company is accelerating its rebanner strategy and now expects that approximately 120 stores, or 28 percent of the store fleet, to operate as a Shoe Station store by the end of Fiscal 2025. An additional 51 stores are expected to rebanner in Fiscal 2025 (20 in second quarter 2025, 25 in third quarter 2025 and 6 in fourth quarter 2025), with stores expanding into new markets and in markets where the brand is already known.
By March 2027, the Company now expects over 80 percent of the current fleet to operate as a Shoe Station store.
The Company expects the following prospects and impacts from the rebanner strategy:
Significant market share growth in regions where the Company has underperformed with its Shoe Carnival concept or can perform even better under its Shoe Station concept.
Significant financial leverage from a more productive store base.
Fiscal 2025 rebanner investment impacting operating income in a range of $20 to $25 million, resulting in an approximate $0.65 decline in Fiscal 2025 EPS, of which the Company estimates $0.15 was incurred in first quarter 2025.
Recovery of this first-year investment over a two-to-three-year period following a store's grand opening.
As Shoe Station stores surpass over half of the store fleet by back-to-school shopping in Fiscal 2026, achievement of overall comparable stores net sales growth in third quarter 2026.
As a future phase of the growth strategy, the Company continues to expect to enter new markets where it does not compete today.
Fiscal 2025 Outlook
Based on first quarter EPS exceeding market expectations, rebanner strategy momentum, and some improvement in macroeconomic uncertainties, the Company reaffirmed its entire Fiscal 2025 outlook and continues to expect the following:
Net Sales: $1.15 billion to $1.23 billion, representing a range of down 4 percent to up 2 percent versus Fiscal 2024.
GAAP EPS: $1.60 to $2.10, inclusive of the rebanner strategy's initial year costs.
Gross Profit Margin: 35 percent to 36 percent.
SG&A: $350 million to $360 million.
Capital Expenditures: $45 to $60 million.
Annual Shareholder Meeting
As previously announced, the Company will hold its Annual Meeting of Shareholders at 9:00 a.m. Eastern Time on June 25, 2025. Information about the annual meeting and related material, including the Company's proxy statement and annual report, can be found on the Company's website.
Conference Call
Today, at 9:00 a.m. Eastern Time, the Company will host a conference call to discuss its first quarter results. Participants can listen to the live webcast of the call by visiting Shoe Carnival's Investors webpage at www.shoecarnival.com. While the question-and-answer session will be available to all listeners, questions from the audience will be limited to institutional analysts and investors. A replay of the webcast will be available on the Company's website beginning approximately two hours after the conclusion of the conference call and will be archived for one year.
About Shoe Carnival
Shoe Carnival, Inc. is one of the nation's largest family footwear retailers, offering a broad assortment of dress, casual and athletic footwear for men, women and children with emphasis on national name brands. As of May 30, 2025, the Company operated 429 stores in 35 states and Puerto Rico under its Shoe Carnival, Shoe Station and Rogan's store fronts and offers shopping at www.shoecarnival.com and www.shoestation.com. Headquartered in Fort Mill, SC, and with distribution and support operations located in Evansville, IN, Shoe Carnival, Inc. trades on The Nasdaq Stock Market LLC under the symbol SCVL.
Press releases and annual reports are available on the Company's website at www.shoecarnival.com.
Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Information
As used herein, 'we', 'our' and 'us' refer to Shoe Carnival, Inc. This press release contains forward-looking statements, within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, that involve a number of risks and uncertainties, such as statements about our future growth, operations, cash flows and shareholder returns.
A number of factors could cause our actual results, performance, achievements or industry results to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements. These factors include, but are not limited to: our ability to increase our comparable stores Net Sales and achieve expected operating results from rebannering Shoe Carnival locations into Shoe Station locations within expected time frames, or at all; our ability to achieve expected operating results from, and planned growth of, our Shoe Station banner within expected time frames, or at all; the impact of competition and pricing, including our ability to maintain current promotional intensity levels; changes in the political and economic environments in, the status of trade relations with, and the impact of changes in trade policies and tariffs impacting, China and other countries which are the major manufacturers of footwear; our ability to control costs and meet our labor needs in a rising wage, inflationary, and/or supply chain constrained environment; the effects and duration of economic downturns and unemployment rates; the potential impact of national and international security concerns, including those caused by war and terrorism, on the retail environment; general economic conditions in the areas of the continental United States and Puerto Rico where our stores are located; changes in the overall retail environment and more specifically in the apparel and footwear retail sectors; our ability to successfully utilize the e-commerce sales channel and its impact on traffic and transactions in our physical stores; the success of the open-air shopping centers where many of our stores are located and the impact on our ability to attract customers to our stores; our ability to attract customers to our e-commerce platform and to successfully grow our omnichannel sales; the effectiveness of our inventory management, including our ability to manage key merchandise vendor relationships and direct-to-consumer initiatives; changes in our relationships with other key suppliers; our ability to successfully manage and execute our marketing initiatives and maintain positive brand perception and recognition; our ability to successfully manage our current real estate portfolio and leasing obligations; changes in weather, including patterns impacted by climate change; changes in consumer buying trends and our ability to identify and respond to emerging fashion trends; the impact of disruptions in our distribution or information technology operations including at our distribution center located in Evansville, IN; the impact of natural disasters, public health and political crises, civil unrest, and other catastrophic events on our operations and the operations of our suppliers, as well as on consumer confidence and purchasing in general; the duration and spread of a public health crisis and the mitigating efforts deployed, including the effects of government stimulus on consumer spending; risks associated with the seasonality of the retail industry; the impact of unauthorized disclosure or misuse of personal and confidential information about our customers, vendors and employees, including as a result of a cybersecurity breach; our ability to effectively achieve the operating results from, and maintain the synergies, efficiencies and other benefits gained through, our acquisition strategy, including our recent acquisition of Rogan's; our ability to successfully execute our business strategy, including the availability of desirable store locations at acceptable lease terms, our ability to identify, consummate or effectively integrate future acquisitions, our ability to implement and adapt to new technology and systems, our ability to open new stores in a timely and profitable manner, including our entry into major new markets, and the availability of sufficient funds to implement our business plans; higher than anticipated costs associated with the closing of underperforming stores; the inability of manufacturers to deliver products in a timely manner; an increase in the cost, or a disruption in the flow, of imported goods; the impact of regulatory changes in the United States, including minimum wage laws and regulations, and the countries where our manufacturers are located; the resolution of litigation or regulatory proceedings in which we are or may become involved; continued volatility and disruption in the capital and credit markets; future stock repurchases under our stock repurchase program and future dividend payments; and other factors described in the Company's SEC filings, including the Company's latest Annual Report on Form 10-K. In addition, these forward-looking statements necessarily depend upon assumptions, estimates and dates that may be incorrect or imprecise and involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors. Accordingly, any forward-looking statements included in this press release do not purport to be predictions of future events or circumstances and may not be realized. Forward-looking statements can be identified by, among other things, the use of forward-looking terms such as 'believes,' 'expects,' 'aims,' 'on track,' 'may,' 'will,' 'should,' 'seeks,' 'pro forma,' 'anticipates,' 'intends' or the negative of any of these terms, or comparable terminology, or by discussions of strategy or intentions. Given these uncertainties, we caution investors not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date hereof. We disclaim any obligation to update any of these factors or to publicly announce any revisions to the forward-looking statements contained in this press release to reflect future events or developments.
SHOE CARNIVAL, INC.
CONDENSED CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEETS
(In thousands)
(Unaudited)
May 3,
February 1,
May 4,
2025
2025
2024
ASSETS
Current Assets:
Cash and cash equivalents
$
78,476
$
108,680
$
56,919
Marketable securities
14,477
14,432
12,555
Accounts receivable
8,745
9,018
5,868
Merchandise inventories
428,424
385,605
411,619
Other
18,509
18,409
17,992
Total Current Assets
548,631
536,144
504,953
Property and equipment – net
178,424
172,806
172,182
Operating lease right-of-use assets
341,815
343,547
345,881
Intangible assets
40,956
40,968
41,001
Goodwill
18,018
18,018
15,223
Other noncurrent assets
12,314
12,650
13,342
Total Assets
$
1,140,158
$
1,124,133
$
1,092,582
LIABILITIES AND SHAREHOLDERS' EQUITY
Current Liabilities:
Accounts payable
$
66,592
$
52,030
$
71,234
Accrued and other liabilities
24,699
25,382
21,938
Current portion of operating lease liabilities
58,355
53,013
56,025
Total Current Liabilities
149,646
130,425
149,197
Long-term portion of operating lease liabilities
306,987
314,974
313,302
Deferred income taxes
19,624
18,879
15,999
Deferred compensation
9,539
10,011
12,157
Other
781
848
4,123
Total Liabilities
486,577
475,137
494,778
Total Shareholders' Equity
653,581
648,996
597,804
Total Liabilities and Shareholders' Equity
$
1,140,158
$
1,124,133
$
1,092,582
Expand
SHOE CARNIVAL, INC.
CONDENSED CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF CASH FLOWS
(In thousands)
(Unaudited)
Weeks Ended
Weeks Ended
May 3, 2025
May 4, 2024
Cash Flows From Operating Activities
Net income
$
9,343
$
17,286
Adjustments to reconcile net income to net
cash (used in) provided by operating activities:
Depreciation and amortization
8,335
7,385
Stock-based compensation
1,546
1,757
Loss on retirement and impairment of assets, net
596
117
Deferred income taxes
745
326
Non-cash operating lease expense
15,876
14,926
Other
317
277
Changes in operating assets and liabilities:
Accounts receivable
272
(904
)
Merchandise inventories
(42,819
)
(23,387
)
Operating leases
(16,789
)
(14,916
)
Accounts payable and accrued liabilities
12,256
7,886
Other
685
6,306
Net cash (used in) provided by operating activities
(9,637
)
17,059
Cash Flows From Investing Activities
Purchases of property and equipment
(13,346
)
(10,192
)
Investments in marketable securities
(678
)
(17
)
Acquisition, net of cash acquired
0
(44,577
)
Net cash used in investing activities
(14,024
)
(54,786
)
Cash Flow From Financing Activities
Proceeds from issuance of stock
48
39
Dividends paid
(4,418
)
(3,705
)
Shares surrendered by employees to pay taxes on
stock-based compensation awards
(2,173
)
(688
)
Net cash used in financing activities
(6,543
)
(4,354
)
Net decrease in cash and cash equivalents
(30,204
)
(42,081
)
Cash and cash equivalents at beginning of period
108,680
99,000
Cash and cash equivalents at end of period
$
78,476
$
56,919
Expand

Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Yahoo
34 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Sanofi (SNY) Stock Down 5% Despite AERIFY-1 Success
Sanofi (NASDAQ:SNY)'s shares fell 5% this week, even as the company announced positive results from its AERIFY-1 trial with Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, marking a significant advance in COPD treatment. This decline comes in contrast to a 2% rise in the broader market, suggesting that investors may be focusing on other company initiatives, such as SNY's recent partnership with Stagecoach Performing Arts to raise awareness about Type 1 diabetes. Despite the short-term drop, Sanofi (NASDAQ:SNY)'s long-term performance remains strong. Over the past five years, the company has delivered a total return of 19.59%, outpacing both the French Pharmaceuticals sector and the broader market, which saw declines of 4% and 4.5% respectively in the past year. Analysts remain optimistic about Sanofi (NASDAQ:SNY)'s future, with the current share price at €95.9 and a consensus target of €117.17, an 18.5% potential upside. The company's Projections for 2028 include revenues of €51.2 billion and earnings of €10.2 billion, supported by innovative drug development and efficient operations. While we acknowledge the potential of SNY as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and have limited downside risk. If you are looking for an extremely cheap AI stock that is also a major beneficiary of Trump tariffs and onshoring, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock. READ NEXT: and Disclosure: None.
Yahoo
34 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Viatris (VTRS) Faces Securities Fraud Class Action Over FDA Inspection Fallout
On May 31, 2025, Viatris Inc. (NASDAQ:VTRS) became the subject of a securities fraud class action lawsuit filed in the U.S. District Court for the Western District of Pennsylvania. The suit alleges that between August 8, 2024, and February 26, 2025, the company and certain executives made materially false or misleading statements regarding the operational status of its Indore, India manufacturing facility. Ralf Kleemann/ The complaint centers on Viatris' public assurances that its facilities were in "good operating condition" and committed to "the highest quality manufacturing standards." However, following a failed inspection, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration issued a Warning Letter and Import Alert in December 2024 that affected 11 products, including the cancer drug Lenalidomide. On February 27, 2025, Viatris (NASDAQ:VTRS) disclosed that the inspection issues would negatively impact 2025 revenue by roughly $500 million and earnings from operations by about $385 million. This revelation led to a 15% drop in Viatris' stock price, from $11.24 to $9.53 per share. Investors who purchased Viatris securities during the specified period have until June 3, 2025, to seek appointment as lead plaintiff in the lawsuit. While we acknowledge the potential of VTRS as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and have limited downside risk. If you are looking for an extremely cheap AI stock that is also a major beneficiary of Trump tariffs and onshoring, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock. READ NEXT: 20 Best AI Stocks To Buy Now and 30 Best Stocks to Buy Now According to Billionaires. Disclosure: None. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data

Miami Herald
41 minutes ago
- Miami Herald
Veteran fund manager resets stock market forecast amid Musk, Trump fallout
Put two mercurial personalities in the room, add competing goals and a hefty dose of media pressure, and what do you get? Let's just say that the high-profile friend-to-foe saga isn't overly surprising. Elon Musk and Donald Trump are polarizing figures with a penchant for dropping verbal bombshells, and that was particularly evident this week as the two sparred over the Big Beautiful bill, electric vehicle credits, and debt. The rift may shock some, however, given how closely Musk and Trump worked together over the past year. Don't miss the move: Subscribe to TheStreet's free daily newsletter Musk spent hundreds of millions helping elect Donald Trump as president, and Trump rewarded Musk with a high-profile role in his administration as the head of the Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE. Trump even went so far as to host a Tesla showroom on the White House lawn to support Musk after Musk's political activism caused a drop in Tesla's sales. One person who wasn't the least bit surprised by the high-profile dust-up was veteran hedge fund manager Doug Kass. Back in December, Kass picked the break-up as one of his top 15 surprises for 2025. It was far from the only correct forecast for Kass. He also predicted a stock market reckoning could cause the S&P 500 to fall 15%, and in April, he accurately forecast that stocks would find their footing after the brutal sell-off. Kass recently revisited his take on Musk and Trump, and how stocks may react to their fallout. His S&P 500 outlook may disappoint many, while his take on Trump and Musk might surprise most. After back-to-back 20% gains in the S&P 500 in 2023 and 2024, including an impressive 24% return last year, investors may have complacently expected more good times in 2025. Then reality set in. The stock market has whipsawed amid a series of shocks, many delivered by President Trump and Elon Musk, via his high-profile and much-debated cost-cutting at DOGE. Related: Elon Musk latest message sends Tesla stock surging Stocks came into 2025 arguably priced to perfection. Optimism for a friendly Federal Reserve shift in monetary policy to dovish interest rate cuts and a flood of artificial intelligence spending fueled big returns last year, pushing the S&P 500's price-to-earnings ratio north of 22. Historically, returns following high P/E ratios have been largely lackluster. That point wasn't lost on Kass, who correctly said in December that the S&P 500 could drop 15% in 2025. "Surprise #9: In 2025, the S&P Index falls by about 15%. The technology-laden Nasdaq drops by over 20%," wrote Kass. Kass beat the bearish drum continuously through February, when the S&P 500 reversed after hitting all-time highs. From mid-February through early April, bombshells in the form of shockingly high tariff announcements from President Trump and job losses stemming from Musk's DOGE efforts caused the benchmark index to plummet. At its worst, the S&P 500 fell 19%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq fell about 24%. The sharp drop was painful, and many hit the sell button, worried that an endless stream of uncertainty would cause even greater losses. Kass, however, correctly reversed course, making bargain-basement buys on the indexes and tech leaders, including Amazon, near the lows. Since then, Trump's pause on tariffs and potential for trade deals that ease the tariffs' bite have helped fuel a dramatic recovery, lifting the S&P 500 by 20%. More Economic Analysis: Hedge-fund manager sees U.S. becoming GreeceA critical industry is slamming the economyReports may show whether the economy is toughing out the tariffs The result has been a nausea-inspiring roller coaster ride for buy-and-hold investors. That's been particularly true for Tesla (TSLA) shareholders. The EV company rallied after Trump's election amid hope that Musk's White House connections would pave the way to sales growth. Instead, Musk's DOGE efforts, and arguably controversial political comments, caused a mass exodus of left-leaning Tesla buyers. Sales cratered in key markets, including Europe and California, the largest U.S. auto market. In Europe, Tesla sales dropped 49% year-over-year in April to 7,261 vehicles, according to the European Automobile Manufacturers' Association. In California, Tesla registrations fell 21.5% year-over-year in the first quarter, while non-Tesla electric vehicle (EV) registrations grew 14%. Tesla's stock price got hammered as a result, falling 54% from mid-December highs to early April lows. It's since recovered alongside the broad market, jumping 35%, largely on news Elon Musk would step away from DOGE. Doug Kass has seen a thing or two. His career stretches back into the 1970s at money manager Putnam, including a stint as research director for billionaire Leon Cooperman's Omega Advisors. His deep experience navigating markets professionally means he had a front-row seat to his share of political, economic, and stock market surprises. He witnessed Richard Nixon's Watergate implosion, the inflation-riddled 70s, the Savings & Loan crisis, the Internet boom and bust, hanging chads, the housing-bubble-driven Great Financial Recession, Trump presidency version 1.0, Covid, and the recent inflation shock and recovery. Related: Veteran strategist unveils updated gold price forecast Every December, he tests that experience with his "surprises" list for the coming year. This year, in addition to predicting the S&P 500 sell-off, he forecast the unfriendly end of the Trump-Musk relationship. "Surprise #2: The 'other' romance, between Trump/Musk, doesn't make it past spring 2025," wrote Kass. "National protests and demonstrations emerge and demands from a wide array of members of both the Republican and Democratic parties (including conservatives and liberals) call for 'ousting' Elon Musk, an unelected official, from playing such a dominant role in the U.S. government." Kass's Musk prediction is a longer read, but the gist is simple: Musk and Trump will suffer a fallout, which may have consequences for investors. He revisited his outlook, offering a new take on the Trump-Musk situation. "Right in front of us, it is obvious that political positions of influence can easily be bought-sold by both parties (and that certainly includes the presidency)," wrote Kass. "I am not even sure where the performance ends and reality begins. In the end (probably sooner than later) - just like the president's opening salvos of ridiculously high tariff proposals - the two actors will likely have a detente (and kiss and make up) because the downside is certain for both of them, as no one will win. When that make-up happens, no one knows. It could happen today, next week or next month, but the parties' 'interests' are now so enmeshed that Musk and Trump recognize where their bread is buttered." A potential "easing" of tensions would be welcome, given that a long-term tit-for-tat would fuel market volatility. Still, Kass's view of what happens to the stock market next isn't encouraging. "Never in my investing career has there been so many possible social, political, geopolitical, economic, interest rates and fiscal policy outcomes (many of which are adverse). That is why I don't understand the uber confidence expressed by the Perma Bull cabal (led by Fundstrat's Tom Lee) and manifested in a near-vertical move higher for equities over the last two months," continued Kass. "With a forward PE of 22x, equities remain overvalued and, after covering my Index shorts yesterday, I plan to reshort any rally." If Kass is correct that instability will force stocks lower, how low could it go, and when might things improve? "I see seven lean months ahead for our markets. We estimate downside risk to be roughly 3x the upside reward," concludes Kass. Related: Veteran fund manager who predicted April rally updates S&P 500 forecast The Arena Media Brands, LLC THESTREET is a registered trademark of TheStreet, Inc.