Oil Spill To Hit Kerala Coast By Monday Night, Warn Scientists As Monsoon Current Intensifies Drift
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Scientists are tracking the trajectory of the oil spill to predict where it is likely to move. The monsoon, which made its onset on 24 May, has made the operation difficult.
Rough monsoon seas and shifting currents are accelerating the spread of the oil spill off Kerala's coast, with scientists warning that the oil pollutants from the spill could reach the southern districts of the state as early as Monday night – raising contamination concerns.
The spill, drifting southeast, is expected to hit the coast near Alappuzha, initially affecting around 21 km of the coastline. But it is likely to potentially expand to 43 km by Tuesday morning, with scientists monitoring its movement by satellite.
'Our models indicate a very high probability that the overboard containers may drift towards the Kerala coast as early as Monday night or Tuesday morning. The southern districts of Alappuzha, Kollam and Thiruvananthapuram are very vulnerable and likely to be impacted. We have already issued coastal advisories and urged people to take all precautions," Dr T M Balakrishnan Nair, Director, Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS), told CNN-NEWS18.
The coastal districts in Kerala remain on alert after a Liberian-flagged cargo ship carrying tonnes of oil and containers with 'hazardous cargo' capsized off the coast of Kochi around 1:25 pm, while en route from Vizhinjam to Kochi Port in the Arabian Sea. While all the members aboard the ship have been safely rescued, the oil spill is now rapidly drifting towards the shore, raising concerns of major contamination.
Wind, Waves, And Vigorous Monsoon
'It is the ocean current, wind and waves which determine how fast the debris reaches the shore. As of now, with the winds gusting and the waves up to 3–3.5 metres high, these containers could be ashore as early as tonight. We have alerted the local fishermen of the potential risks and are tracking the situation in real-time through satellites," he added.
The vessel had started tilting 38 nautical miles off the coast of Kochi. There are also concerns that the marine fuel used in the ship has also leaked into the sea, apart from the oil in the fallen containers. According to the Indian Coast Guard, the vessel was carrying 640 containers, including 13 containing hazardous cargo, and 12 with Calcium Carbide. Additionally, the ship had 84.44 metric tonnes of diesel and 367.1 metric tonnes of furnace oil in its tanks.
Tracking The Oil Spill
Scientists are tracking the trajectory of the oil spill to predict where it is likely to move, and to what extent. The southwest monsoon, which just made its onset over Kerala on 24 May has made the operation further challenging.
Senior marine scientist and former Director, INCOIS, Dr S C Shenoi, said the active monsoon conditions and rough seas could drive the spill ashore sooner than anticipated. 'With a very active monsoon off India's west coast, the combination of strong winds, high waves and shifting ocean currents can rapidly push the oil slick towards the land. Although the Arabian Sea currents typically flow southward during monsoon onset, the winds and waves can override that pattern, raising the risk of shoreline contamination," he added.
Moreover, as the ship sinks, the oil continues to leak into the sea. But the rate and the extent of the spill depend on how quickly the vessel is salvaged. The longer it remains submerged, the more oil it is likely to ooze out, increasing the risk of marine and coastal contamination.
'As the oil moves, it can coagulate and begin to settle on the sea floor. Though this varies by oil type and is difficult to measure precisely. We keep the Coast Guard informed, which coordinates the clean-up operation. Eventually, as the oil reaches shore, it may wash up on beaches," he said, warning of the serious environmental impacts.
Experts say minor oil spills are frequent while refuelling a ship, but they can spell major environmental and health disaster when they occur due to breaks in the pipelines, or when drilling operations go wrong or big cargo ships or oil tanker ships sink, as in the present case.
Since oil has many different toxic compounds, it can seriously harm ocean life, which is difficult to rescue in such a situation. The toxic compounds in the fossil fuels can also cause severe health problems depending on the concentrations, and the composition of the contaminants.
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