2025 BMW Championship odds, DFS picks for second tournament of FedEx Cup Playoffs

New York Times

3 days ago

The second leg of the FedEx Cup Playoffs, the BMW Championship, returns to Caves Valley Golf Club in Owings Mills, Md., for the first time since 2021.
The 2021 edition had the entire golf world questioning the challenge of Caves Valley as Patrick Cantlay and Bryson DeChambeau tore the golf course apart on their way to 27-under finishes. Cantlay ended up prevailing in a playoff, but as soon as the final putt was sunk, the entire Caves Valley board decided they needed to revamp the golf course. The Tom Fazio design needed to be modern-golf proofed, and the famed amateur Buddy Marucci stepped up to help with the redesign.
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Consequently, the 49 players (Sepp Straka is a WD) teeing it up this week will face a tougher test than they did in 2021. The course was lengthened and the pars were changed on some key holes. The first hole was lengthened by over 100 yards and should prove a tough test right out of the gate. The Par-5 second hole was shortened to 525 yards and turned into a Par 4. The course only features one Par 3 that is less than 220 yards on the scorecard. The green complexes were completely redesigned, and they have installed a heat-resistant bentgrass that doesn't need to be watered as often. The soft greens were one of the big issues in 2021, as players could take dead aim on greens that weren't firm or fast.
My model this week will focus on strokes gained off the tee, driving distance, strokes gained on long golf courses, strokes gained putting on bentgrass, strokes gained on Par 4s, strokes gained on approach from 175 to 200 yards and strokes gained in no-cut events.
Course: Caves Valley Golf Club
Location: Owings Mills, Md.
Designer: Tom Fazio (redesign and lengthening by George 'Buddy' Marucci)
Par: 70
Length: 7,601 yards
Average green size: 5,200 square feet (new bentgrass greens with new contours after the 2021 BMW Championship)
Past champions: 2024 Keegan Bradley, 2023 Viktor Hovland, 2022 Patrick Cantlay, 2021 Patrick Cantlay (at Caves Valley Golf Club), 2020 Jon Rahm, 2019 Justin Thomas, 2018 Keegan Bradley, 2017 Marc Leishman, 2016 Dustin Johnson
Ludvig Åberg (+1800) has gained strokes off the tee and on approach in seven straight measured events. His short game and putting have been showing signs of life lately, and he finished nicely last week with a T9. A hot putting week and a little more consistency with his iron play, and he should contend.
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Cameron Young (+2500) has gained over 10.5 strokes off the tee combined in his last two tournaments. His putter continued to be hot in Memphis as he finished fifth with a fabulous Sunday performance. I really like that he has gained over six strokes combined on approach in his last two tournaments.
Ben Griffin (+3300) hasn't lost a stroke on approach since the Truist Championship in May. He has been hot with the putter, and his strokes-gained numbers over his last 36 rounds sit above Rory McIlroy. With the added distance this week and the 33-yard-wide fairways with very little bunkering or water to deter players from pulling driver, we should see Griffin start ripping his driver again.
Kurt Kitayama (+4500) has gained strokes off the tee and on approach in every tournament since the Canadian Open at the beginning of June. He finished T9 last week, gaining strokes across the board.
Scottie Scheffler ($13,400) will have Chris Kirk's caddie, Michael Cromie, on the bag this week as Ted Scott is still attending to a personal matter. Scheffler struggled a bit last week when Scott had to step away and Brad Payne stepped in, as his pace of play and routine were changed. If he had putted better on Sunday, he may have won or at least been in the playoff. The pricing is a little different this week, but I don't see how you can avoid the best golfer in the world when there are only 49 golfers in the field.
Rory McIlroy ($11,400) has been off since the Open Championship, but steps into the second leg of the FedEx Cup Playoffs without losing his position of being second in the FedEx Cup standings. McIlroy's game seems to be a good fit for the revamped Caves Valley course with his driving ability (second in strokes gained off the tee) and his Par-4 scoring record, as he is 18th on the season.
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Ludvig Åberg ($10,200) See above.
Cameron Young ($9,800) See above.
Ben Griffin ($9,100) See above.
Hideki Matsuyama ($8,800) has four straight top-19 finishes, and he has gained over 11 strokes combined on approach over his last two tournaments. He is a hot putter away from really making some noise. He is sixth on tour in proximity between 175 and 200 yards on approach.
Chris Gotterup ($8,500) hasn't gained less than a stroke off the tee since the Valspar. He is third on tour in driving distance and fifth in club head speed. His sweet spot with his irons seems to be 175 to 200 yards, as it's the only bucket where he sits inside the top 20 on the PGA Tour. He didn't get to mash the ball in Memphis, and that may hold people back from going back to him this week, but not me.
Akshay Bhatia ($8,200) was the first-round leader last week after carding a 62 in his opening round. He lost over 3.5 strokes putting combined on Friday and Sunday, but still managed to finish T6. He gained over eight strokes tee-to-green last week, and he has gained over five strokes tee-to-green in three of his last five events.
Rickie Fowler ($7,900) had a solid week to propel him inside the top 50 and make it into the BMW Championship. He has gained over 1.2 strokes off the tee in five straight events, and he gained over 4.6 strokes on approach last week. He needs a big week to get inside the top 30 to make it to East Lake, but his numbers all look like he's a good bet to make it there.
Kurt Kitayama ($7,600) See above.
J.T. Poston ($6,700) gained strokes across the board in Memphis to finish T22 and make it into the BMW Championship. Poston gained almost 4.8 strokes on approach at the Wyndham Championship heading into the playoffs, so there is some recent form to be excited about.
Jhonattan Vegas ($6,100) has gained over a stroke off the tee in four straight events, and he gained over five strokes on approach last week in Memphis. His putter is an issue, but if he can come close to being a positive, he could surprise this week.
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(Photo of Rory McIlroy: Christian Petersen / Getty Images)
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