What Netanyahu fears the most in Gaza
Why has the Gaza war lasted this long?
Some believe that Israel fears for the remaining hostages. Others think Israel wants to avoid further losses among its troops. And some see it as incapable of eliminating what remains of Hamas.
In my opinion, Israel does not want to end the war except on its own terms – by preventing the return of the Palestinian Authority to rule the Gaza Strip. To prolong the crisis, it will use whatever weapons it has left, from starvation to displacement. In short, what Netanyahu fears most is the establishment of a Palestinian state.
Washington has a practical solution to stop the war: Hamas leaves Gaza, and Israel halts its military campaign. But neither Hamas nor Israel is willing to accept this!
Israel, in particular, as the stronger party, refuses to eliminate Hamas if the price is the return of the Palestinian Authority. Netanyahu and his team are convinced that the Palestinian Authority poses a greater threat to Israel than Hamas. Hamas has no international legitimacy and represents everything that terrifies most of the world – even the Arab world. It is a militant, ideological jihadist group. Meanwhile, the Palestinian Authority is recognized by the United Nations as the legitimate representative of the Palestinian people. If it regains control over Gaza, that would mark the path toward a Palestinian state.
Despite all that Hamas has done – including the attacks on October 7 – it remains, in Israel's eyes, merely a 'terrorist group' that can be dealt with just as other countries deal with similar groups.
Netanyahu believes it would be foolish to destroy Hamas only to reward the Palestinian Authority with control of Gaza, allowing it to emerge as the victor of these wars and create a de facto Palestinian state. Netanyahu has personally worked to prevent this scenario, fostering a symbiotic relationship with Hamas since the early days of his rule by empowering the group to govern Gaza.
Netanyahu is corrupt and opportunistic – but not a fool. He understands that handing over the keys to Gaza to Ramallah would automatically mean the countdown to the creation of a Palestinian state has begun.
After his swift and dazzling victories over Hezbollah, al-Assad, and Iran, Netanyahu now faces a reckoning similar to the post-Gulf War moment in 1991. Back then, the US-Gulf coalition defeated Saddam Hussein, liberated Kuwait, and eliminated a major threat to Israel – then demanded a price: A solution to the Palestinian issue.
In that same year, the Madrid Conference was held despite Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir's reluctance. He ultimately accepted, paving the way for the later Oslo Accords, which for the first time allowed the Palestinians to return from exile.
Netanyahu knows this history – and fears his own victories could similarly 'deviate' toward the establishment of a Palestinian state.
In practice, Israel – having destroyed Hezbollah and tracked its leader Hassan Nasrallah underground – could do the same to Hamas. As we've seen, Israel is not deterred by casualties among its soldiers, its hostages are not a top priority, and certainly, the scale of Palestinian deaths is of no concern. Of the 251 original hostages, only about 23 remain alive in captivity.
Today, the American envoy's negotiations have reached an advanced stage to end the tragedy in Gaza, secure the release of the remaining hostages – around 50, dead or alive – and disarm Hamas. Yet Netanyahu's main concern remains: the return of the Palestinian Authority to govern Gaza.
Even without a deal from the envoy Brett McGurk or David Satterfield, Netanyahu could end the war by eliminating the remaining Hamas forces. He has proven willing to accept further casualties, as he has in parallel wars. He risked his people's safety by opening fronts with Hezbollah, Iran, and the Houthis, and he is prepared to take risks and accept losses in a final showdown with Hamas.
So why doesn't Netanyahu end the war?
As the conflict nears a possible resolution in the coming two months, I believe his dilemma lies in finding an arrangement that prevents the emergence of a Palestinian state. What's stopping him from ending the Gaza war is not concern over additional Israeli casualties or even losing his role as prime minister – especially since Trump is openly working to shield him from accountability and helping him stay in power.
From a strategic perspective, the issue goes beyond current events: Israel does not want the Palestinian Authority to return to Gaza and unite it with Ramallah – even if that means reinstating Hamas or handing Gaza to Ibrahim al-Arjani to run it.
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