Traders Reel In Fed Cut Bets as Strong Job Data Drags on Bonds
(Bloomberg) -- Treasuries slumped after stronger-than-expected US job and wage growth prompted traders to trim bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year.
Next Stop: Rancho Cucamonga!
ICE Moves to DNA-Test Families Targeted for Deportation with New Contract
Where Public Transit Systems Are Bouncing Back Around the World
US Housing Agency Vulnerable to Fraud After DOGE Cuts, Documents Warn
Trump Said He Fired the National Portrait Gallery Director. She's Still There.
The Friday selloff lifted yields across maturities by as much as 10 basis points, led by shorter-dated tenors more sensitive to Fed rate changes. The benchmark 10-year note's rate rose eight basis points to 4.47%, and yields across the spectrum once again exceeded 4%.
Interest-rate swaps showed traders now see a roughly 70% chance of a quarter-point rate cut by September, compared with a probability of about 90% on Thursday. Fewer than two rate cuts are fully priced in for the year.
'You are seeing a little bit of the bond market reaction here of pricing out a bit of the expectations in terms of the Fed,' Jeffrey Rosenberg, portfolio manager at BlackRock Inc., said on Bloomberg Television. 'The big takeaway is a slowing-but-still strong labor market.'
Nonfarm payrolls increased 139,000 last month after a combined 95,000 downward revisions to the prior two months. The median forecast of economists was for an increase of 126,000. The unemployment rate held at 4.2%, while hourly wages picked up.
Steep gains for US equities also curbed demand for bonds. The S&P 500 and other major benchmarks rose more than 1%.
Following the job report, President Donald Trump urged the Fed to cut rates by a full point, intensifying his pressure campaign against Chair Jerome Powell.
Fed policymakers have said they are waiting for more data before lowering rates as they balance the risks of still elevated inflation and a potential economic slowdown. Officials have said it could take months to gain clarity on the economic impacts of sweeping policy changes, particularly around trade.
Consumer price index data for May, scheduled to be released June 11, is expected to slow acceleration, according to the median economist estimates in a Bloomberg survey. The overall rate is seen rising to 2.5% from 2.3%, the core rate to 2.9% from 2.8%.
Fed officials traditionally observe a communications blackout beginning the second Saturday before a meeting, a period that begins June 7. Also ahead next week are Treasury auctions of three- and 10-year notes and 30-year bonds, whose expected yields are higher as a result of Friday's selloff.
This week's data has painted a mixed picture of the job market amid the uncertainties of the Trump administration's tariff wars. ADP private-sector payrolls showed hiring decelerated in May to the slowest pace in two years, while job openings unexpectedly rose in April.
'There's nothing here to change the status quo for the Fed,' said Ed Al-Hussainy, a rates strategist at Columbia Threadneedle Investment, referring to Friday's report. 'Some downside bets on Fed cuts this summer will likely come out.'
Wall Street views on how much Fed easing is likely to occur this year range from none to as much as 100 basis points. The most common forecast among major banks is for just one cut, in either September or December.
Traders are still wagering on policymakers keeping rates on hold at their June 17-18 gathering, and seeing only 10% of a chance for a move in July.
'The jobs number takes June and July off the table,' said Kevin Flanagan, head of fixed income strategy at WisdomTree. 'We continue to play this waiting game and with no visible slowing in jobs, the market now turns to focusing on whether the disinflation trend continues with CPI next week.'
What Bloomberg strategists say...
'While the initial bond reaction has focused on the earnings beat (and possibly the marginal headline beat), in aggregate this data doesn't really move the needle on our understanding of the labor market.'
— Cameron Crise, Markets Live Blog macro strategist
In the currency market, a Bloomberg gauge of the dollar rose to the day's high after the release of the report, then moderated gains. The measure remains on course for a 0.4% decline on the week, with currency markets increasingly focusing on economic data.
--With assistance from Carter Johnson, Edward Bolingbroke and Alice Gledhill.
(Adds commentary, updates prices.)
Cavs Owner Dan Gilbert Wants to Donate His Billions—and Walk Again
YouTube Is Swallowing TV Whole, and It's Coming for the Sitcom
Is Elon Musk's Political Capital Spent?
Trump Considers Deporting Migrants to Rwanda After the UK Decides Not To
The SEC Pinned Its Hack on a Few Hapless Day Traders. The Full Story Is Far More Troubling
©2025 Bloomberg L.P.
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Yahoo
9 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Meet the Only S&P 500 Stock That Yields Over 10%. Here's Why It Could Be Worth Buying in June.
Dow Inc. is under pressure due to weak customer demand, global competition, and high costs. Management doesn't want to cut the dividend, but it could be a good choice given cost pressures. Even if Dow cut its dividend in half, it would still have an excellent yield. 10 stocks we like better than Dow › Commodity chemical giant Dow Inc. (NYSE: DOW) is hovering around a five-year low and is now down around 50% from its spin-off price when DowDuPont split into three separate companies in April 2019. Dow has kept its dividend the same for the last six years. But since the stock has been beaten down so much, Dow's yield has jumped to a whopping 10.3% at the time of this writing -- making it the highest-yielding component in the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC). Here's why Dow's challenges persist and why the dividend stock could be worth buying now, even if the company reduces its payout. Dow makes commodity chemicals -- mainly plastics and synthetic rubber. Dow has hundreds of products that are used either directly or indirectly across virtually every industry in the economy -- from electronics to food and beverage packing, textiles, construction, industrial applications, healthcare, cosmetics, household products like detergents and dish soaps, and more. Since these products are commodities, they lack pricing power. This is similar to the dynamic in oil and gas, where a gallon of unleaded gasoline sold at ExxonMobil is virtually the same as a gallon sold at Chevron. Consumers will largely make a purchase decision based on price, not brand. So Dow must achieve scale and operating leverage to ensure it can produce products at a competitive cost relative to its peers. Economic growth typically coincides with higher commodity chemical demand. But lately, two factors have been working against Dow. Demand is low across several end markets due to higher borrowing costs from elevated interest rates and slowing economic growth in key markets -- namely Europe. Another major challenge is competition. China has been ramping up investments in manufactured goods -- from chemicals to solar panels -- to take market share on the global stage. If China can produce chemicals sold by Dow for a cheaper price, it can undercut Dow on pricing. Dow is also working to become a more sustainable company by investing in plastic waste recycling and the world's first net-zero emissions integrated ethylene cracker -- known as its Path2Zero project in Alberta, Canada. However, on its first-quarter 2025 earnings call, Dow said that it is pausing Path2Zero to reduce its spending. Dow estimates that the pause will save the company $1 billion and reduce enterprise spending to $2.5 billion from $3.5 billion. Dow's latest quarter showed some signs of improvement, as it was the sixth consecutive quarter of year-over-year volume growth. But net sales still fell 3% due to a lack of pricing power -- which illustrates that demand is improving but competition is challenging. Dow's operating margin has gone from pre-pandemic levels around 8%, to 2022 highs in the mid-teens, to just 3.3% currently. As you can see in the chart, Dow's stock price is under pressure due to declining revenue and margins. The company's profit margin, which accounts for interest and taxes, is less than 1%. Dow is converting just $0.69 for every $100 in sales into profit -- which is unsustainable. It's also worth mentioning that Dow is free-cash-flow (FCF) negative, meaning that its operations can't support its dividend expense, so it has to rely on other means, such as debt. Since Dow isn't producing enough cash or earnings to cover its dividend, it can either sell assets, pull back on spending, take on more debt, cut the payout, or a blend of multiple ideas. As mentioned, Dow did pause its Path2Zero project, which could reduce its long-term earnings growth but will save on near-term expenses. On May 1, Dow completed the sale of a 40% equity stake in Diamond Infrastructure Solutions, which has infrastructure assets along the U.S. Gulf Coast. The sale netted Dow with $2.4 billion in initial cash proceeds, with the potential for $600 million more in proceeds if an option is exercised. Dow spent $494 million on dividends in its recent quarter, so the sale alone can cover the dividend expense for roughly five quarters. But selling assets or taking on debt to cover dividends is like plugging holes in a sinking ship. A preferred approach is to get the ship afloat -- or back to higher margins and consistent FCF -- so that operations can cover the dividend, and ideally, still have cash left over to pay down debt or buy back stock. In addition to savings from Path2Zero and the asset sale, Dow is also receiving around $1 billion in proceeds from a court settlement, and $1 billion in targeted cost savings by 2026, including $300 million in 2025. All told, Dow is on track to receive around $6 billion in additional cash or cost savings, most of which is coming this year. It's also worth mentioning that Dow has just $500 million in debt maturing in 2025 and no substantial debt maturities until 2027. So for now, its debt seems manageable. However, if Dow's margins remain depressed, it will have few choices but to cut the dividend. Dow's 10.3% yield is so high that the company could cut the payout by two-thirds and Dow would still yield 3.4% -- which is a solid source of passive income. When asked about the dividend on Dow's first-quarter earnings call, management responded that the cash and cost savings will help support the dividend, but that the situation is evolving and Dow will have to continue monitoring tariffs and macro factors. Dow may be a worthwhile turnaround play for investors who aren't banking on its dividend yield staying above 10%. If the company can use its cash proceeds wisely and continue managing its expenses, it could help weather the storm until economic conditions improve. However, it remains to be seen how Dow will hold up against the competition, even during a more normal operating environment. Dow has a long-term goal to have its dividend make up 45% of operating income. If Dow can get its operating margin back around the 8% to 9% range or if it cuts its dividend in half, it should be around that goal -- assuming it doesn't lose more pricing power. And if Dow can gradually improve its margins, the stock will begin to look dirt cheap. In sum, Dow has the cash and lack of debt obligations to afford its dividend in 2025. Going forward, I expect the company to cut its dividend at least in half or maybe by two-thirds if conditions don't improve, or it may decide to sustain the payout if there's a significant recovery in macro conditions. Risk-tolerant investors may want to scoop up shares of Dow now, with the stock at multiyear lows. In contrast, other investors may want to take a wait-and-see approach to Dow, as the next year will be pivotal in determining whether the company overcomes its present challenges or goes through with a dividend cut. Before you buy stock in Dow, consider this: The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the for investors to buy now… and Dow wasn't one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years. Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $674,395!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $858,011!* Now, it's worth noting Stock Advisor's total average return is 997% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 172% for the S&P 500. Don't miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join . See the 10 stocks » *Stock Advisor returns as of June 2, 2025 Daniel Foelber has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Chevron. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. Meet the Only S&P 500 Stock That Yields Over 10%. Here's Why It Could Be Worth Buying in June. was originally published by The Motley Fool
Yahoo
12 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Ohio food banks strain as Trump slashes federal aid programs
By P.J. Huffstutter COLUMBUS, Ohio (Reuters) -On a warm spring morning, volunteers at the Mid-Ohio Food Collective plucked cucumbers from a greenhouse where a state psychiatric hospital once stood and the land lay fallow. Now the state's largest food bank is working that ground again, part of an urgent effort to shore up supplies amid shrinking federal support, including deep funding cuts under President Donald Trump. They are planting more. Prepping soil for fruit trees, and installing hives for honey. In the greenhouse, crates of romaine and butterhead lettuce were packed for delivery, bound for a pantry across town. Back at headquarters in Grove City, staff chased leads from grocers, manufacturers, even truckers looking to unload abandoned freight. Every pallet helped. Every pound counted. In a state that handed Trump three straight wins, where Trump flags flap near food aid flyers pinned on bulletin boards, the cost of his austerity push is starting to show. "Food banks will still have food," said Mid-Ohio CEO Matt Habash. "But with these cuts, you'll start to see a heck of a lot less food, or pantries and agencies closing. You're going to have a lot of hungry, and a lot less healthy, America." For decades, food banks like Mid-Ohio have been the backbone of the nation's anti-hunger system, channelling government support and donations from corporations and private donors into meals and logistics to support pantries at churches, non-profits and other organizations. If a food bank is a warehouse, food pantries are the store. Outside one of those – the Eastside Community Ministry pantry in rural Muskingum County, Ohio – Mary Dotson walked slow, cane in hand. The minute she stepped through the doors, her whole body seemed to lift. They call her Mama Mary here, as she's got the kind of voice that settles you down and straightens you out in the same breath. The regulars grin as Dotson, 77, pats shoulders, swaps recipes. She had tried to do everything right: built a career, raised five children, planned for the quiet years with her husband. But after he died and the kids moved away, the life they'd built slipped out of reach. Now her monthly Social Security check is $1,428. She budgets $70 of that for groceries, and she gets $23 in food benefits as well. She started as a volunteer at Eastside. Simple math convinced her to become a customer. 'I figured if I'm going to take these things,' Dotson said, 'I'm going to work here, too.' CAMPAIGN FODDER The Mid-Ohio Food Collective was born out of church basements and borrowed trucks nearly a half-century ago, when factory closures left more families hungry. It's now the state's largest food bank, feeding more than 35,000 Ohio families a week. It supplies more than 600 food pantries, soup kitchens, children and senior feeding sites, after-school programs and other partner agencies. When Trump returned to office in January, Mid-Ohio was already slammed. Pantry visits across its 20 counties hit 1.8 million last year, nearly double pre-COVID levels, and are continuing to grow this year. The biggest surge came from working people whose paychecks no longer stretch far enough due to pandemic-era inflation under Joe Biden's presidency, staff said. Then came the Trump cuts. In March, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) cancelled the pandemic-era Local Food Purchase Assistance (LFPA) program, which funded about $500 million annually for food banks; and froze about $500 million in funding for The Emergency Food Assistance Program (TEFAP), one of the agency's core nutrition programs that supplies food to states to pass on to food banks for free. Much of the food Mid-Ohio distributes is donated, but donations alone can't stock a pantry consistently. Its current $11.1 million purchasing budget, built from federal, state and private dollars, helps fill the gaps. The March cuts wiped out about 22% of Mid-Ohio's buying power for next fiscal year – funds and food that staff are trying to replace. In early December, Mid-Ohio ordered 24 truckloads filled with milk, meat and eggs for delivery this spring and summer. The food came through the TEFAP program, using about $1.5 million in government funding. The first delivery was scheduled to show up April 9. The only thing to arrive was a cancellation notice. USDA said in a statement Secretary Brooke Rollins is working to ensure federal nutrition spending is efficient, effective and aligned with the administration's budget priorities. More cuts could come. Last month, the Republican-controlled U.S. House of Representatives passed Trump's tax and spending bill. It called for $300 billion in cuts to food benefits for low income people under the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), which fed nearly 1.4 million Ohioans in January, according to the latest state data. If the cuts survive the Senate and are passed into law, it annually would cost Ohio at least $475 million in state funding to maintain current SNAP benefits, plus at least $70 million for administrative program costs, said Cleveland-based The Center for Community Solutions, an independent, nonpartisan policy research group. That would consume nearly every state-controlled dollar in Ohio's Department of Job and Family Services budget, roughly 95% of the general revenue meant to help fund everything from jobless claims to foster care. Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine and other lawmakers in this GOP supermajority state capitol, facing a constitutional requirement to pass a balanced budget, told Reuters that extra money for food banks isn't there. The proposed fiscal 2025 Ohio budget would set food bank funding back to 2019 levels – or about 23% less than what it spent this year, in a state where nearly one in three people qualify for help. Federal safety-net programs have become campaign fodder, too. At a recent Ohio Republican Party fundraiser in Richland County, Ohio, voters in suits and Bikers for Trump gear alike listened to Vivek Ramaswamy, the tech millionaire turned presidential candidate now running for Ohio governor. He spoke out against "a culture of dependence on the entitlement state that has festered in our country for 60 years." SAVING A PENNY So what happens when the government pulls back and supplies thin? If you're Victoria Brown and her small team of four, it means working the phones, chasing leads, watching markets, and moving fast. At Mid-Ohio's offices in Grove City, the food bank's director of sourcing sipped her coffee and squinted at her screen, eyes tracking the price-per-pound of cucumbers down to the cent. Saving a penny might seem inconsequential, unless you're trying to buy 40,000 pounds. In a supply chain that has relied on steady government support, food donations have become even more important, even as they grow more haphazard in both timing and what's available. Outside Brown's office, one staffer was trying to track down a shipment of pineapples. The rest were on the road, talking crop conditions with farmers, negotiating delivery times with suppliers and checking with grocers to see what might be sitting in the back, waiting for a second life. Brown glanced at her inbox, where new offers stacked up: At 11:10 a.m., one pallet of frozen chicken. I'll find out why it's being donated, a staffer promised. At 11:13 a.m., four pallets of cereal, bulk packed in industrial totes. Brown jotted a note for the volunteer coordinator: Anyone available to scoop a thousand pounds of cereal into small bags? RACING THE CLOCK Some of that food may be headed for Mid-Ohio's Norton Market, a modern food pantry built to feel like a real store in Columbus. The man in charge here is Denver Burkhart. He moves with the kind of precision the military teaches and life reinforces. At 35, he looks every bit the soldier he still is – broad-shouldered and lean, squared off at the edges. Fifteen years in the Army, two tours in Afghanistan, one in Iraq, now he has a mission back home until he serves overseas again with the Ohio Army National Guard. He started the morning as he always does: at a laptop in the back cramped office, racing to secure whatever free or discounted goods Brown's team had found. He leaned over the keyboard, one eye on the clock, the other on the blinking screen. The inventory system had just refreshed. The race was on to fill his mental list. His fingers clicked fast, steady, practiced. He hovered over baby formula. More moms have been showing up lately. Forty cases into the cart. Maybe too many – but if he waited, they'd be gone. "I rely heavily on the free product," he said. "Without it, we'd be hurting really bad." "WATER DAYS" Across town, Shannon Follins checks on her ice supply. It's for what she calls the "water days." Follins, 37, is raising three kids, including 3-year-old twins. One is autistic; he hasn't found his words yet. Until recently, Follins worked third shift at Waffle House for $5.25 an hour, and now she's studying for a degree in social services. Family brings groceries when they can. But it's the pantry at Broad Street Presbyterian Church, stocked by Mid-Ohio, that lets her make meals that feel like more than survival. One recent night, her daughter Essence twirled barefoot across their kitchen floor, dancing to the sounds of boiling pasta and chicken simmering in the pan. When there was nothing else to eat, she filled her kids' bellies with tap water and a mother's promise that tomorrow might be better. "It gives me a sense of security," she said, nodding toward the plastic jugs stacked in her freezer. If the government cuts food aid? She's prepared for more water days.
Yahoo
12 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Could Musk-Trump feud stoke GOP divisions ahead of midterms? ANALYSIS
Even by the standards of President Donald Trump and billionaire Elon Musk's relationship -- an unprecedented alliance punctuated by a meme-inspired reshaping of the government, numerous rocket launches, assassination attempts, a quarter-billion-dollar political gamble and electric car photo-ops -- it's been an unusual week. For months, Musk had been the closest of Trump's advisers -- even living at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida and spending time with the president's family. More recently, Trump gave Musk a congratulatory Oval Office sendoff from his work leading cost-cutting efforts in his administration, giving him a golden key with a White House insignia. But the billionaire's muted criticisms of Trump's "big, beautiful bill" grew louder and more pointed, culminating in posts Thursday on his social media platform taking credit for Trump's November win and Republicans' takeover of the Senate. "Without me, Trump would have lost the election, Dems would control the House and the Republicans would be 51-49 in the Senate," Musk posted. "Such ingratitude." Some lawmakers and Republicans worry Musk's apparent acrimonious departure from Trump's orbit could create new uncertainties for the party -- and stoke GOP divisions that would not serve Republicans well heading into a critical legislative stretch before the midterm elections. The back-and-forth attacks, which continued into the weekend and took a sharply personal turn, reverberated across a capital they have both reshaped. Trump on Friday told several reporters over the phone that he was not thinking about Musk and told ABC News Chief Washington Correspondent Jonathan Karl that Musk had "lost his mind." In the near term, Trump and the GOP are trying to muscle their signature tax and domestic policy megabill through the House and Senate, with the slimmest of margins and no shortage of disagreements. MORE: Speaker Johnson tries to protect fate of megabill from Trump-Musk crossfire Any shift on the key issues could topple the high-wire act needed to please House and Senate Republicans. A nonstop torrent of criticism from Musk's social media megaphone could collapse negotiations, harden the position of the bill's critics and even undermine other pieces of Trump's first-term agenda. "You hate seeing division and chaos," Rep. Don Bacon, R-Neb., who represents a swing district, told ABC News about the Trump-Musk fracas. "It's not helpful." Rep. Jodey Arrington, R-Texas, the chairman of the House Budget Committee, called Musk a "credible voice" on "debt and spending" issues. "It's never helpful when he says those things. He's a believable person and he has a broad reach, but I think he's frustrated and people understand the context," Arrington said, predicting that both men will eventually resolve their dispute. Republican operatives watching the spat unfold this week told ABC News it is too early to say how the feud between Trump and Musk could affect the next election. The billionaire spent more than anyone else on the last election, pouring $270 million into groups boosting Trump and other Republicans up and down the ballot, according to Federal Election Commission filings. MORE: Trump-Musk feud leaves some DOGE staffers worried about their futures: Sources He already suggested he would cut back on his political donations next cycle, more than a year out from the midterm elections. In the final stretch of the 2024 race, he relocated to Pennsylvania, hosting town halls and bankrolling his own get-out-the-vote effort in the critical swing state. Since his foray into Washington, Musk has become a deeply polarizing and unpopular figure, while the president's approval rating has ticked up in some recent surveys. Groups affiliated with Musk spent $20 million this spring on the Wisconsin Supreme Court race, only for the liberal candidate to win -- signaling to some Republicans the limits of Musk's political pull. While his support may be missed by Republicans next cycle, Trump has continued to raise millions of dollars to support his future political plans, a remarkable sum for a term-limited president that underscores his central role in the party and undisputed kingmaker status. MORE: Trump tells ABC Musk 'lost his mind,' as CEO's dad says 'make sure this fizzles out' Rep. Mike Lawler, R-N.Y., who is mulling a gubernatorial bid in 2026, downplayed the tensions or political implications, suggesting that reporters "spend way more time worrying about these things than most average people." "I'm sure they will make peace," Lawler told ABC News on Friday. There were some signs of a détente. While Musk continued to hurl insults at Trump ally and critic Steve Bannon, his social media activity appeared to cool off on Friday, and the billionaire said one supporter was "not wrong" for saying Trump and Musk are "much stronger together than apart." Through nearly a decade in politics and three campaigns for the White House, Trump has demonstrated a remarkable ability to move past disputes or disagreements with many intraparty rivals and onetime critics, including some who now serve in his Cabinet. Now, some Republicans left Washington this week asking themselves if Musk is willing to do the same. Could Musk-Trump feud stoke GOP divisions ahead of midterms? ANALYSIS originally appeared on
