Division among Brazilians over Bolsonaro house arrest order could set tone for next election
Supporters of the far-right leader and some moderates see the ruling as harsh, while allies of incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and other moderates want to move on and leave the issue for the judiciary. Creomar de Souza, a political analyst with Dharma Political Risk and Strategy, a political consultancy firm based in Brasilia, said that could be the dynamic of next year's election.
"One is the effort of Bolsonaro supporters to keep strong on the right, no matter if it is pushing for amnesty in congress or putting themselves physically out there,' the analyst said. "The second is how the Lula administration will try to show that the country has a government.' Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who put Bolsonaro on trial for his alleged role in the coup plot to keep him in office despite his defeat in the 2022 election, ordered the 70-year-old former president's arrest for violating precautionary measures imposed on him by spreading content through his three lawmaker sons.
That decision followed one from the court last month ordering Bolsonaro to wear an electronic ankle monitor and to obey a curfew while the proceedings are underway. The polarization between supporters and critics of the former president took Brazil's congress by storm Tuesday and was also reflected in figures from pollster Quaest, which say 53% are favorable to the order against the far-right leader and 47% against it.
Analysts expect another narrow election next year, with Lula running for reelection and Bolsonaro barred. The political repercussions in Brazil are getting attention from the US government as President Donald Trump directly tied a 50% tariff on imported Brazilian goods to his ally's judicial situation. Late on Monday, the US State Department's Bureau of Western Hemisphere Affairs condemned the far-right leader's order for house arrest and attacked de Moraes.
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