Chokepoints and crises: Strait of Hormuz and the age of water wars
Three successive UN Secretary Generals have sounded the alarm, with Kofi Annan famously stating in 2001, 'Fierce competition for fresh water may well become a source of conflict and wars in the future.'Recent World Bank and UN reports confirm that water scarcity, exacerbated by climate change and population growth, is already fuelling regional instability, migration, and violence across the globe.Researchers now estimate a 75-95% chance of water wars in the next 50 to 100 years, with nearly 300 potential conflict hotspots identified worldwide.Water-related violence has surged in the 21st century, with combatants increasingly targeting water infrastructure and using access to water as a tool of war, as seen in conflicts in Iraq, Syria, Ukraine, and Gaza. THE WEAPONISATION OF WATER AND THE STRAIT OF HORMUZadvertisementThe Strait of Hormuz is best known as the world's most vital oil chokepoint, with roughly a fifth of global oil and petroleum products and a significant share of liquefied natural gas (LNG) passing through its narrow waters daily. However, its strategic importance extends beyond hydrocarbons. The strait is also a critical maritime link for the Gulf region's limited freshwater resources, which are heavily reliant on energy-intensive desalination plants scattered along the Persian Gulf coast.This waterway has long served as a critical chokepoint in global trade, especially for oil and gas. Control over such passages gives regional powers significant leverage to influence not only military outcomes but also global economic stability. In the aftermath of recent escalations, Iran has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, underscoring how water access is now being used as a direct bargaining chip in international conflict and diplomacy.Similarly, India also used the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) as a strategic tool during and after Operation Sindoor to exert pressure on Pakistan. Following the terrorist attack in Pahalgam in April 2025, India launched Operation Sindoor, a series of missile strikes on terror infrastructure in Pakistan.In another recent conflict, Israel has restricted access to water infrastructure in Gaza, including freshwater and water-treatment plants, as a means of exerting pressure. Water access and control have become central to the humanitarian situation and are used strategically in the ongoing conflict. HOW REAL IS THE THREAT?advertisementWhile Iran has never fully blocked the Strait of Hormuz, it has repeatedly threatened to do so in response to Western pressure and military action. The current escalation, following US strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, has renewed fears that Iran might use the strait as leverage, not just to disrupt oil flows but also possibly as a pressure point in the broader context of water and energy security.Experts warn that any prolonged closure or disruption would have catastrophic consequences for both energy and water supplies in the Gulf, with ripple effects across Europe, Asia, and beyond. The vulnerability of the strait underscores how closely intertwined water and energy security have become—and how easily a conflict over one can trigger a crisis in the other.FLASHPOINT IN FUTURE WATER WARSThe prediction that World War III could be fought over water is no longer a distant scenario.As climate change accelerates and water scarcity intensifies, critical chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz are at the intersection of energy and water security, and thus at the heart of potential future conflicts.This vulnerability highlights the urgent need for global cooperation on water management and conflict prevention, lest the world's next great war be fought not for oil, but for the very water that sustains life.
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