Conquest and exile: What Gaza city fears is coming

The National

11 hours ago

In the streets of Gaza city, there is anger and exhaustion at what many Palestinians see as an unfolding Israeli plan to force them south – and eventually out of Gaza altogether.
Israel's security cabinet approved new war plans on Friday to capture Gaza city, as a step towards retaking control of the strip. But residents are unsure whether to flee the coming advance, amid fears an exodus is exactly what Israel wants.
Al Badri Mohammed, a lifelong resident of the city, lost his home in the early months of the Israel-Gaza war. He now lives in a small rented apartment, a temporary refuge in a city where nothing feels secure any more amid Israeli bombardment.
The talk of a new mass displacement fills him with dread. 'Two years of suffering make you lose hope that anything could be better,' he told The National, his voice heavy with fatigue. 'Before, when we fled from Gaza city to the south, at least we stayed in a house. But now, where should we stay? In tents?'
For him, the idea of moving again is unthinkable. 'I will never flee south again,' he insists. 'We can't make any more steps. We will wait until the end, as long as nothing changes on the ground.'
The fears of Gaza city residents are echoed by analysts and activists, who warn that the displacement of civilians is not just a by-product of Israel's war, but part of a deliberate strategy.
One Israeli source told The National on Thursday that the plan was to push half of Gaza's population south as part of the campaign. Tallal Abu Rokba, a political analyst, said differences of opinion between Israel's political and military leaders were of no consequence.
'The outcome remains the same – reoccupation, control, or transferring the population from the north to the south, especially from Gaza city where one million people live,' he said.
He said diplomacy by other countries had failed to halt the course of events. 'When US envoy Steve Witkoff came to Israel, it wasn't to make a deal between Israel and Hamas. It was to push for a decisive resolution in Gaza,' he said.
'The continuation of genocide and starvation has damaged Israel's reputation, but instead of reversing course, Israel is taking 'dramatic steps' – the reoccupation of Gaza and the creation of new realities that will shape future negotiations.'
According to Dr Abu Rokba, Israel has already reshaped Gaza geographically, destroying neighbourhoods, creating buffer zones and blocking access to more than 70 per cent of its land. Now, he says, comes the next phase: demographic change, forcing Palestinians to leave through unbearable living conditions.
Salah Abdul Ati, head of the International Commission to Support Palestinian People's Rights, calls this part of a long-standing strategy to entirely erase the Palestinian cause. Some Israeli ministers have openly speculated about relocating Gazans to other countries.
'Since the start of its aggression on Gaza, Israel has hidden its ultimate goal: to occupy, depopulate, and annex Gaza,' Mr Abdul Ati told The National. 'This plan is not tactical, it is strategic. It will begin in Gaza city, displacing more than one million people in catastrophic conditions.'
He warns that the scenario seen in southern Rafah could be repeated: residents pushed into ever-smaller areas, moved from Gaza city to central camps, from there to Khan Younis, and finally into detention zones along the Salah Al Din and Morag corridors, before being expelled abroad, if any country will take them.
'These are the dreams of the Israeli right, which sees this moment as the ideal and strongest opportunity to restore Israel's 'normal' position of control.' Mr Abu Rokba said.