The race for European football – and the benefit of not being involved
Heading into the final weekend of Premier League fixtures, Nottingham Forest's clash with Chelsea at the City Ground is undoubtedly the game with the most at stake.
Four teams are separated by just a single point in the race for Champions League qualification. Newcastle (fourth), Chelsea (fifth), and Aston Villa (sixth) are all level on 66 points, with Forest on their tails in seventh on 65.
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For Nuno Espirito Santo's side, however, nothing but a win will do — and even then, they'll need results elsewhere to fall in their favour.
On the latest episode of The Totally Football Show, James Richardson was joined by Benji Lanyado, Duncan Alexander, and Charlie Eccleshare to discuss Forest's chances of securing a top-five spot, and why they shouldn't be disappointed even if they miss out — considering they will still have European football next season.
A partial transcript has been edited for clarity and length. The full episode is available on The Totally Football Show feed on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.
James: Let's start with Nottingham Forest and Chelsea. As you know, a Chelsea win will secure them a top-five finish and Champions League football. Forest, by contrast, need to win the game but also hope that Aston Villa drop points at Old Trafford, or Newcastle drop points against Everton. Benji, which team is not going to get what they need out of those three fixtures?
Benji: Heartbreakingly, I think it's going to be Nottingham Forest. I'm saying this maybe as an emotional hedge against what I want to happen, but I can just see Chelsea and Man City squeezing their way through and pushing out the fun teams. I think that there is so much emotion that's been building up to that game at the weekend for Forest, and I just worry for them because of that. A bit like how with Athletic Club against United in the Europa League semi-finals, there was so much riding on it that they bottled it because of the pressure. I think that could happen to Forest as well.
James: Are Forest going to get their win, Duncan?
Duncan: I'm going to say yes, even though it's been a strange few weeks for them. Obviously, there was the horrific injury to Taiwo Awoniyi, and their form has dropped off a bit as well. But looking at this as a one-off game against a Chelsea team that isn't flawless, and with atmosphere from the crowd at the City Ground, I think they can do it. Whether they get the required results elsewhere, however, I'm not as convinced. Because I think Newcastle will beat Everton, and despite Villa's notoriously bad record at Old Trafford, surely if they're ever going to end it, this weekend is the time. But it's going to be very exciting, and we could see a few changes to the league table as the goals go in.
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I must say I also don't think Forest should be too disappointed if they don't make it into the top five, because they're still going to have European football, and it's still been a great season for them. We've spoken about Spurs not being necessarily ready for the Champions League, I don't think Forest's squad is ready either. We saw even a squad as good as Villa's this season drop off because they were competing in the Champions League. So the Europa League or Conference League for Forest would be a nice and gentle easing into continental football.
So whatever happens — and I'm sure this will happen — their fans should probably just celebrate an incredible season with European football. Let's not forget Forest were the team that finished 17th last year, so it just shows that you can go from 17th back to near the top, so well done to them.
Charlie: It will be interesting next season with so many teams in Europe, because I think a lot of these teams are going to really struggle. We spoke about it a couple of weeks ago in relation to Newcastle last season. When they were trying to juggle the Champions League and Premier League, they couldn't do it and they had an injury crisis. Then this season, they haven't had any European football whatsoever, and they've been really good again.
So there are going to be a lot of teams, like Newcastle, like Forest as you mentioned Duncan, and even Crystal Palace, who are going to be navigating this completely new world. We've even seen the best teams both in the Premier League and in other leagues also struggling to do that juggling act with these extra games. So we could see one or two of the teams not in Europe next season actually feel a benefit.
You can listen to full episodes of The Totally Football Show for free on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.
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