New research shows that the Rose of Tralee could be another overseas winner
The Rose of Tralee returned to TV screens this week with 32 contestants taking to the stage over two nights. The festival is co-hosted again this year by Kathryn Thomas and Dáithí Ó Sé.
Casino.org Ireland has analysed every Rose of Tralee winner since 1959 to calculate the luckiest names, counties, curses and quirks heading into the 2025 festival – and the stats reveal that the odds of a first-time winner are ten times higher than Kerry finally breaking its 61-year curse.
Their research showed that the name Orla tops the charts with three wins, followed closely by Geraldine, Lisa and Sinead with two wins each. None of the 32 confirmed 2025 Roses share these names, making it all but certain we'll see a fresh first name enter the record books.
The initial 'T' has not appeared in a winning name since 1987, making it the most 'overdue' initial. The odds of the winner having a name that is shared by another Rose in the 2025 lineup are 6.25 per cent, as the names 'Laura' and 'Ciara' both have two Roses this year. The Rose of Tralee is hosted by Kathryn Thomas and Dáithí Ó Sé (Image: RTE/Rose of Tralee)
Historically, winning Rose names have been multi-syllable, but there is a 12.5 per cent chance that a single-syllable name could win this year. The four single-syllable names in the lineup are Beth, Maeve, Leah, and Sara.
Some of the cursed counties that have failed to secure a win in decades include: Kerry: The infamous Kerry drought is 61 years long (last win 1964). The Kerry Rose, Laura Daly.
Clare: 57 years since a win (1968).
Northern Ireland: 46 years since a win (1979). Four Roses from the region (Armagh, Down, Fermanagh and Tyrone) are competing this year.
While some of the favourites, based on historical trends include: International Roses: The odds still favour an overseas winner, with international Roses historically winning 57 per cent of the time. The 2025 field is split between 15 Irish Roses and 17 International Roses.
New Zealand Rose: Ciara Jo Hanlon is bidding for a back-to-back win for New Zealand, a feat only achieved once before in festival history.
The teacher Rose: There are 11 Roses who are teachers or work in education, giving a teacher-type profession a 34.4 per cent chance of winning based on their representation in the field.
The wild cards chasing a first-ever win: Irish counties: Carlow, Laois, Longford, Armagh and Wexford have never won the crown.
International regions: Arizona, Ohio, Ottawa, Western Canada and the UAE have also never had a winner. New Zealand Rose Ciara Jo Hanlon (Image: RTE/Rose of Tralee)
JJ Lee, PR Expert & Resident Kerryman at Casino.org Ireland, said: 'As a Kerry man myself, I'll admit the 61-year curse is the one everyone talks about - we've been waiting since 1964 to see the crown come home.
'But that's only part of the drama. We've got ten regions chasing their first ever win and if one of them does it, they'll make history.
'Not a single entrant this year has one of the historically 'luckiest' winning names like Orla or Sinead, which means we're guaranteed a bit of drama and mystery to say the least.
'Statistically, the numbers still favour an International Rose, but in a festival that's seen everything from debut counties to back-to-back name wins, it's just too hard to call really!'
The 2025 Rose of Tralee final takes place at the Dome in the Kerry Sports Academy. It will be broadcast live on RTÉ One and on the RTÉ player.
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