Farage returns to Scotland for by-election campaign

The Herald Scotland

4 days ago

Instead, the message from the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election is clear: everything we thought we knew about Scottish politics may be about to unravel.
Tomorrow, Nigel Farage enters the fray with a rare trip north of the Border.
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The last time he took part in a Scottish by-election campaign — Aberdeen Donside in 2013 — he was forced to cancel a large lunch and press conference after an anti-fascist group threatened to demonstrate outside.
That was little more than a month after he had suffered a torrid half-hour of abuse and heckling from campaigners on the Royal Mile, who forced him to find refuge in a city centre pub.
He will be back in the Granite City tomorrow morning, hosting a press conference where he will no doubt meet some of the four Aberdeenshire councillors who have defected to his party in recent weeks.
The Reform leader will be joined by his deputy, MP Richard Tice, on the visit, with both men then heading to South Lanarkshire to join the campaign for their candidate Ross Lambie.
Another ex-Scottish Tory, his defection might have made headlines — if not for the chaotic press conference outside a Glasgow chip shop where Mr Tice could not remember his name.
If he manages a win on Thursday, Mr Lambie's name will not be slipping the mind of the party hierarchy again.
Three weeks ago, Reform thought they could get a good third place at the by-election. Now, Glasgow councillor Thomas Kerr says they might be able to pull it off.
'I always thought that seats like Hamilton would be in contention for Reform next year,' he told The Herald. 'I thought it would take longer to get to the stage that we are at at the moment.
'I just do not know how this is going to play out anymore.
'If we get a good second place next week, then there will be serious questions for all the other parties — especially for Labour and the Tories — about this idea that you tactically vote for them to stop the SNP. Actually, that flips its head at that point.'
Based on current polling, a proportional swing suggests Reform UK should win around 15% to 20% of the vote in Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse — well behind the SNP on 33.6% and Labour on 28.5%.
However, turnout is expected to be significantly lower than at a general election.
It could fall by as much as 44% — similar to the drop seen in 2023's Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election.
That would remove around 16,000 votes from the total, the researcher and Herald columnist Mark McGeoghegan posted on his Bluesky account this week.
If just a quarter of those missing votes are Labour supporters, Reform could find itself neck-and-neck with Mr Sarwar's party.
Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner with Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar and Labour party candidate Davy Russell during a walk about in Quarter, South Lanarkshire (Image: Andrew Milligan) If 35% to 40% come from SNP voters, then Reform could pull level with Mr Swinney's party too.
'There is a narrow path to a Reform victory,' Mr McGeoghegan posted, 'and either way their performance in this by-election is going to be a shock for a lot of Scots.'
Given the demographics in the constituency, you might expect Reform to perform better here than national polling suggests.
That is despite the race row that has dominated the last week.
The party has faced widespread criticism for a Facebook and Instagram advert using heavily edited footage from a 2022 speech by Mr Sarwar in which he called for greater South Asian representation in politics.
Door knocking currently suggests a very thin SNP win, with Reform second, Labour well back, and the Tories at risk of losing their deposit.
Labour sources have been briefing for weeks now that they are about to lose. One yesterday told The Times the party should expect to get 'quite considerably humped'.
If Labour is pushed back into third, the implications could be significant. Some Scottish Labour MPs have told Sir Keir Starmer a poor result could stop them supporting planned disability benefit reforms.
Tensions reportedly flared during a meeting with Pat McFadden last week, with some fearing the higher-ups in the UK party have failed to grasp how close next year's election is.
There could also be implications closer to home.
For a by-election, the Holyrood hopeful picked by the party has had a very low profile. Davy Russell, a former high heidyin at Glasgow City Council, has declined to take part in radio interviews, TV debates and even local hustings.
When the BBC asked Mr Sarwar why his man had turned down their invitation to appear on Good Morning Scotland, he replied: 'That is a matter for the campaign team and the campaign.'
If the party does get humped, then there will be questions over the selection process and the party's fitness for next year's Holyrood election.
John Swinney, Katy Loudon and SNP supporters in Hamilton (Image: Jeff J Mitchell/Getty) Last week, John Swinney penned an open letter to Labour supporters calling on them to vote for Katy Loudon to beat Nigel Farage.
He described the Brexiteer as a 'clear and present danger to our country' and said he must be stopped.
'The problem is that Labour cannot do that. Their campaign is in collapse and Keir Starmer is busy pandering to Farage.
'And so, I am today asking Labour supporters to act.
'It is time to unite behind our shared principles, defeat Nigel Farage, and refuse to be divided by a man determined to destroy the values we hold dear.'
The letter was splashed by the Daily Record, an effective endorsement from a paper traditionally associated with Labour.
Two days later, the paper splashed a letter from Mr Sarwar.
'Do not believe the spin and the nonsense of John Swinney,' he wrote. 'This by-election is a two-horse race between Scottish Labour and the SNP.
'Reform's poison will not win here,' he insisted.
The SNP say he might. 'It is tight,' one source said. 'Losing to Reform is not impossible.'
'Nigel Farage has made the political weather, frankly, north and south of the Border,' Professor Sir John Curtice told The Herald on Sunday.
But he warned that the strategy of talking up Reform could backfire.
'It is the old story — if you do not like something, it is not always a good idea to draw people's attention to it, which is precisely what Sarwar and Swinney have done and we will have to wait and see whether or not this makes any difference at all and whether or not they were wise to do so.
'It is a bit of a two-edged sword. If we take what Swinney is now saying — 'it is a battle between us and Reform, so if you hate Nigel Farage you have to vote for us' — well, you might be able to persuade some people who would otherwise vote Labour to vote for you.
'But on the other hand, you might also be able to persuade the not inconsiderable number of Conservatives in this constituency that maybe voting for Reform might be the best way of giving the SNP a bloody nose. You might encourage anti-SNP tactical voting as much as you might persuade pro-SNP tactics.'