Somerville rejects poverty target to be substantially missed

The Herald Scotland

3 hours ago

However, a new scrutiny report by the Poverty and Inequality Commission warned the 2030 aims were "not at all likely to be met".
In an exclusive interview with The Herald on Tuesday, Ms Somerville said her government was ''determined' to meet the targets, before clarifying the targets 'absolutely' will be met.
The report, led by the organisation's chair Professor Stephen Sinclair, said: 'On current trends, the Scottish Government is not at all likely to meet the child poverty targets.
'The interim child poverty targets for 2023-24 have been missed and the reduction in child poverty needed to meet the final 2030 targets are now very large.
'Data for 2024-25 will be available till next year, however - given the absence of major interventions to increase incomes or reduce costs during 24-25 – it seems unlikely that it will show a markedly more positive picture than 23-24.
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'Modelling projections of child poverty into the years approaching the final target, based on current policy, suggest the 2030 targets will be missed, and missed by a substantial margin.'
The report warned 'decisive action' must be taken now to allow 'any chance' for the targets to be met.
While child poverty in Scotland is lower than other parts of the United Kingdom, there remains a 12 percentage point gap between the 2030 target and the current relative poverty rate of 22%.
The report warns at least three more poverty-focused policies, on the scale of the Scottish Child Payment, are required.
It also welcomes the announcement that ministers will mitigate the two-child benefit cap from March 2026, but warns that could only reduce poverty rates by two percentage points.
As Ms Somerville announced the date of mitigation, The Herald asked Ms Somerville whether she was ashamed at the prospect of 2030 targets being missed.
She did not respond to this question and instead said: 'We have more work to do. We know that we are making progress and we are clearly disappointed that the interim targets were not met but we are seeing relative poverty levels for children coming down.
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'That's reassuring that we're moving in the right direction but we know that we have to do more.'
She added: 'We are determined to meet the targets. We know it's a challenge but we are absolutely determined to make them.'
Ms Somerville was asked if she could guarantee relative child poverty would be under 10% by 2030, while absolute poverty would not be above 5%.
She said: 'Yes, [I give] an absolute commitment that we will meet those targets.'
The Child Poverty (Scotland) Act 2017 set the legally binding targets, and included interim targets for 2023-24 which included reducing relative poverty to below 18% and absolute poverty to below 14%. These targets were missed, it was confirmed.
Professor Sinclair said: 'The latest child poverty statistics published in March showed that all four interim child poverty targets have been missed, despite there being signs of progress in relation to two of the four – relative and absolute child poverty.
'Delivery of the Scottish Child Payment continues to be a success and the Scottish Government's commitment to mitigate the impact of the UK Government's two-child benefit limit is welcome. However, the Scottish Government has made limited progress in 2024/25 on delivering the other major actions set out in its Best Start, Bright Futures plan.
'There is clearly no lack of belief that child poverty is deeply damaging for children and society in Scotland and that it needs to be eradicated.
'However, our report also makes it clear that the Scottish Government must take decisive action now if it is to have any chance of delivering on the 2030 child poverty targets.'
The Herald, alongside 23 leading charities, launched a campaign in April urging First Minister John Swinney to increase the Scottish Child Payment to £40 per week, for each child.
Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer was also urged to scrap the two-child benefit cap as a matter of urgency.