Most Israelis doubt Gaza ops. will return hostages or defeat Hamas
As the IDF progresses in the Gaza Strip as part of Operation Gideon's Chariots, a survey by the Israel Democracy Institute (IDI), published on Friday, shows that most Israelis are skeptical the campaign will achieve its two main objectives: Bringing home the hostages and defeating Hamas.
According to the May 2025 Israeli Voice Index, conducted by the Viterbi Family Center for Public Opinion and Policy Research, only 37% of Israelis believe the operation will succeed in bringing the hostages back, and just 38.5% think it will defeat Hamas and end its rule in Gaza.
Arab Israelis are even more skeptical: only 27.5% believe the hostages will return, compared with 39% of Jewish Israelis; and 31% believe the operation will defeat Hamas, compared with 40% of Jewish Israelis.
Voter affiliation significantly influences these views. Among supporters of parties in the current coalition, 65% of Religious Zionist Party voters believe the fighting will bringthe hostages home, and 64% believe it will defeat Hamas. By contrast, among voters for the opposition Labor Party — now called The Democrats, only 7% believe either goal will be achieved.
Even among voters for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud Party, there is significant doubt: only 27% believe the hostages will return, and 31% believe the operation will defeat Hamas.
The survey also asked about US President Donald Trump's commitment to Israel's security. When asked, 'To what extent do you think Israel's security is one of President Trump's central considerations?' the public was divided: 47% believe that Israel's security is a central consideration to a fairly large or very large extent, while 46% say it is a central consideration only to a fairly small or very small extent.
This marks a notable shift from immediately before and after Trump's election, when a larger proportion of Israelis believed that Israel's security would be a guiding light for his policy decisions. For example, in November 2024, 63% of respondents held that view.
The survey also revealed mixed opinions on humanitarian aid to Gaza. When asked whether Israel should increase the flow of humanitarian aid into the Gaza Strip, 54% said it should not, while 38% said it should.
Significant differences emerged between Jewish and Arab respondents: more than three-quarters of Arab Israelis believe aid should be increased, while less than a third of Jewish Israelis agree. Among Jewish Israelis, support for increased aid is highest on the Left (75%), compared with 42% in the Center and just 17% on the Right.
About half of the respondents said responsibility for transferring and distributing humanitarian aid should lie with an international force. Approximately a quarter believe the responsibility should fall to the IDF or another Israeli agency. Smaller percentages favor the Palestinian Authority (9%) or private companies (8%).
Similar patterns were found among both Jewish and Arab samples, though Jewish respondents were more likely to support Israeli or international responsibility, while Arab respondents more often favored giving this task to the Palestinian Authority or private companies.
The survey also asked about the recent wave of flight cancellations to Israel by foreign airlines. Approximately 60% of both Jewish and Arab respondents believe the cancellations are due to the objective security situation, while just over a quarter attribute them to disagreement with Israel's conduct in Gaza.
Among Jewish respondents, political orientation again played a role: a majority in all camps attributed the cancellations to the security situation, with the highest proportion on the Left (69%), compared with 62% in the Center and 58% on the Right.
The May 2025 Israeli Voice Index was prepared by the Viterbi Family Center for Public Opinion and Policy Research at the Israel Democracy Institute. The survey was conducted via the internet and by telephone between May 26 and 29, 2025, with 601 Hebrew-speaking and 150 Arabic-speaking adults, constituting a nationally representative sample of the Israeli adult population aged 18 and over. The maximum sampling error was ±3.58% at a 95% confidence level. Fieldwork was carried out by Shiluv I2R.
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