
How Canada's ‘grey wave' is making seniors' housing the hottest real estate play in town
McCrorie said funding is improving. In 2021, the Ontario government committed $4.9 billion to hire over 27,000 long-term care staff over four years and ensure residents receive on average four hours of direct care per day by 2024-25.
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McCrorie also said there is no financial disincentive to hire fewer employees, since these dollars are specifically earmarked for nursing and personal care services. The challenge is finding and retaining qualified staff.
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McCrorie said that although need for senior housing would continue to remain strong in an economic downturn, a hypothetical decline in home values could make it difficult for older Canadians to tap their equity or sell to afford the costs of a private-pay retirement home.
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In Chartwell's 2024 annual report, it noted that general business risks included economic conditions, increased labour and operating costs and the inability to afford residency fees (including anticipated increases in such fees).
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It also mentioned that its revenue and operating results 'depend significantly' on occupancy levels at Chartwell's residences, and increased competition or 'oversupply' in the local market could adversely impact its ability to find residents who can meet these homes' rental rates.
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Orrico said another potential risk would include a significant move in interest rates, which would affect the overall real estate sector. A spike in long-term rates, for example, would prevent REITs from renewing their debt at a lower rate.
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Still, he expects interest rates to trend downward into 2026 and has a positive outlook for the senior housing sector moving forward.
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'I think the senior housing REITs continue to be a good bet because they have this inherent demand, by virtue of an aging population (and) limitations on supply,' said Orrico. 'Outside of some type of exogenous issue, like a pandemic, I think they continue to be a great place to be invested (in).'

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