Trump Is Determined to Extend His D.C. Takeover—and Break the Law
The president on Wednesday was asked if he considers the 30-day timeframe during which he's allowed, under the Home Rule Act, to control D.C.'s police before needing Congress's OK as sufficient to address his imagined crime spike.
Before today, his administration's answer to this question was seemingly yes; a White House official has said the operation is 'expected to last 30 days.'
Now Trump is looking to extend it.
The president indicated Wednesday that his plan A is to put a 'crime bill' before Congress 'very quickly.' The bill, he said, will 'pertain, initially, to D.C.' and ask 'for extensions on that—long-term extensions, because you can't have 30 days.' Trump noted that he expects unanimous Republican support for this (though, as Semafor reports, Senate Democrats seem able and committed to block an extension).
But Trump also expressed his willingness to bypass Congress to draw out the takeover. 'Well, if it's a national emergency, we can do it without Congress,' he said, adding that while he expects all Republicans to fall in line, 'if I have to [call a national emergency], I will.'
Trump has flogged national emergency power more than any other recent president, exhibiting, per libertarian legal scholar Ilya Somin, 'a dangerous pattern of invoking spurious emergencies to undermine the Constitution, threatening liberty and circumventing Congress.' So far during his second term, he's declared a dozen such national emergencies—and is apparently ready to add to that list in order to impose his will, unchecked, on the American people.
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Yahoo
25 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Trump tariffs live updates: Inflation starts to show up in US economy; Trump-China next steps in focus
President Trump's tariffs are starting to show up in economic data for the first time in a significant way. Wholesale inflation surged in July, rising by its fastest pace in around three years and stunning market observers. So far, inflation data has shown little impact since Trump began rolling out sweeping duties in the spring. But as the tariffs become more engrained in the US economy, economists expect more data points to align with this week's Producer Price Index report — perhaps most notably in next month's Consumer Price Index. Meanwhile, stock markets haven't yet been phased. US and Japanese stock indexes hit all-time highs this week as the world adapts. New data this week also showed that tariffs have brought in billions in revenue, though economists say a portion of that is already coming in the form of price increases on consumers. On the negotiations front, Trump signed an executive order extending the tariff truce between the US and China for another 90 days, pushing trade negotiations out to November. Average US tariff rates on Chinese goods are currently around 55%, according to Bloomberg. Earlier this month, Trump unveiled "reciprocal" tariffs on dozens of US trade partners (which you can see in the graphic below). The next negotiations to watch are Canada, Mexico, and China in the coming months. Meanwhile, Trump has also promised to begin instituting more sectoral tariffs. He is targeting imports on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals in the near future. The tariffs are also facing legal limbo. Multiple challenges to Trump's tariffs are pending in US federal courts. The one garnering the most attention is a case heard by an appeals court in July. The Court could nullify or uphold the duties at any time. Read more: What Trump's tariffs mean for the economy and your wallet Here are the latest updates as the policy reverberates around the world. Applied Materials' shares sink on weak China demand, tariff risks Shares in Applied Materials (AMAT) sank 14% before the bell on Friday after the chip equipment maker issued weak fourth-quarter forecasts on sluggish China demand, fueling concerns over tariff-related risks. Reuters reports: Read more here. China's economy lags in July under pressure from tariffs and a weak property market China's economy lagged in July as factory output and retails sales slowed and house prices dropped, according to data released on Friday. President Trump's tariffs have added to uncertainty on exports and are looming over the world's second-largest economy. Concerns linger despite Trump extending a pause in sharp hikes in import duties for 90 days, beginning Monday, following a 90-day pause that began in May. AP reports: Read more here. Taiwan lifts 2025 growth forecast, defying US tariff worries Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. These tariffs are bananas An interesting spot from this week's inflation data: Prices for the reliable, potassium-heavy banana have jumped to their highest price ever recorded. Banana prices peaked around $0.64 per pound in the post-COVID inflation wave and then went on a slow downward trajectory. That is, until April 2025, when President Trump announced his first wave of sweeping tariffs. Prices are now hovering near $0.66 per pound. As the Yale Budget Lab chief Ernie Tedeschi noted on X, the average tariff rate on banana imports went from virtually nothing to very much something as Trump imposed tariffs on most US trading partners. That's nuts! Tapestry forecasts annual profit below estimates on tariff pain Tapestry (TPR) stock fell 8% before the bell on Thursday after the Coach handbag maker forecast annual profit below estimates. The company cited higher costs due to tariffs that have hit its margins. Reuters reports: Read more here. Tariff confusion drives record volume at Los Angeles Port (Bloomberg) — The Port of Los Angeles said it handled the highest container volume in its 117-year history last month, as uncertainty over President Donald Trump's tariffs drives shippers to front-load cargoes. Already the busiest port in the country, LA moved more than 1 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) in July, an 8.5% increase from a year ago, the operator said on Wednesday. That includes containers entering and exiting its terminals, with loaded imports rising by a similar percentage to nearly 544,000 TEUs. The total volume handled was 14.2% higher than in June. Read more here. Pharma tariffs are likely weeks away, Reuters reports US tariffs on pharmaceutical imports are coming but not imminent, Reuters reported Wednesday, citing unnamed sources. Trump has previously warned duties on the drug industry could reach as much as 250%. Reuters reports: Read more here. Brazil's Lula announces $5.5 billion in credits for exporters hit by US tariffs Brazilinan President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has announced a plan that includes $5 billion in credit to help local exporters handle tariffs . Associated Press reports: Read more here. Swiss say tariffs could raise costs for US F-35A jets The original price of the 36 fighter jets Switzerland is buying from the United States could go up by more than $1 billion due to the impacts of tariffs. Reuters reports: Read more from Reuters here. AI boom could help manufacturers adapt to global tariff landscape Mark Bendeich of Reuters details how the confluence of supply chain disruption from Trump's tariff policy and the rise of AI software solutions is leading to increased innovation among manufacturers. Richard Howells, SAP vice president and supply chain specialist, emphasized that the uncertainty surrouding Trump's trade policy is driving the technology push. "That's how it was during the financial crisis, Brexit and COVID," Howells stated. "And it's what we're seeing now." Read more here. GE Appliances to invest over $3B in US, moving from China and Mexico GE Appliances will move production of its refrigerators, gas ranges and water heaters from China and Mexico, investing over $3 billion to expand plans in five US states. AP News reports: Read more here. Bessent dismisses China investing in US as part of a trade deal Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent ruled out Chinese investments as part of a US trade deal. When asked if China would offer a multi-billion dollar pleadges like Japan, South Korea and the EU, Bessent said no. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. Tariffs bring in record $27.7 billion in July as Trump calls haul 'incredible for our country' Yahoo Finance's Brett LoGiurato and Ben Werschkul report: Xi takes aim at US 'protectionism' in phone call with Lula Leaders of the BRICS nations seem to be in talks. Brazilian President Lula spoke with China's leader Xi after meeting with India and Russia. This outreach comes after President Trump pulled Brazil into his trade war. During the call, China's Xi urged for coordinated efforts against US protectionism. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. Soybean futures fall after Trump extends trade truce with China Soybean (ZS=F) prices fell back below $10 a bushel on Tuesday, after news of the US-China trade truce extension. Traders saw this truce as likely delaying major grain-purchasing deals between the two nations until later this year. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. European Union awaits US follow-up on trade deal promises BRUSSELS (Reuters) - The European Union could not say when a joint statement on tariffs with the United States would be ready, nor when the White House would issue an executive order on European car import duties, a spokesperson said on Tuesday. The EU and U.S. reached a framework trade agreement at the end of July but only the 15% baseline tariff on European exports had so far come into effect, as of last week. EU officials previously said a joint statement would follow the deal "very soon" along with executive orders from U.S. President Donald Trump on key carve-outs. "It is an agreement that we believe is strong and the best we could have ... Of course, we expect the U.S. to take further steps that are part of this agreement but I don't believe at this stage we can put a timeline on these engagements," the European Commission spokesperson said. Read more here. 'Climate of uncertainty' remains after China-US trade extension Zhou Mi, an expert at the Ministry of Commerce-backed Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation, told Bloomberg that there remains a "climate of uncertainty" despite the latest 90-day pause on additional tariffs enacted by the US on Monday. The Trump administration 'frequently sends out a range of signals, often through its negotiation tactics and public statements — some of which even contradict each other,' Zhou told Bloomberg. 'This creates a climate of uncertainty that makes businesses and markets increasingly concerned about the stability and outlook for economic and trade policies between China and the US, as well as the US and other countries." Average US tariffs on good imported from China currently sit at 55%. Read more here. Swiss precious metals group wants 'a formal and binding decision' on Trump gold tariff promise Not everyone is fully satisfied with President Donald Trump's social media statement on not putting tariffs on gold after uncertainty in the bullion market in recent days. "President Trump's statement is an encouraging signal for trade stability," Christoph Wild, president of the the the Swiss precious metals association ASFCMP, stated on Tuesday. "However, only a formal and binding decision will provide the certainty the gold sector and its partners require." Read more here. China urges firms not to use Nvidia H20 chips in new guidance China has told local companies to avoid using Nvidia (NVDA) H20 processors, especially for government work. This makes it harder for Nvidia to recover billions in lost sales in China and affects the US government's plan to benefit from those sales. This latest move by China appears to be in response to the deal Nvidia and AMD (AMD) made with the US government over the weekend to pay the US 15% of the revenue for AI-related chip sales to China, adding a monetization layer to the Trump administration's tariff policy that has reoriented global trade relationships. In recent weeks, Chinese officials warned several firms against using these less advanced chips. The strongest advice was to keep J20 processors out of government national security projects, both for state-owned and private companies. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. Japan's Nikkei hits record high on tariff relief, tech rally The Nikkei 225 (^N225) hit a record high Tuesday as easing US tariff fears boosted optimism, led by tech stocks and tariff relief. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. Applied Materials' shares sink on weak China demand, tariff risks Shares in Applied Materials (AMAT) sank 14% before the bell on Friday after the chip equipment maker issued weak fourth-quarter forecasts on sluggish China demand, fueling concerns over tariff-related risks. Reuters reports: Read more here. Shares in Applied Materials (AMAT) sank 14% before the bell on Friday after the chip equipment maker issued weak fourth-quarter forecasts on sluggish China demand, fueling concerns over tariff-related risks. Reuters reports: Read more here. China's economy lags in July under pressure from tariffs and a weak property market China's economy lagged in July as factory output and retails sales slowed and house prices dropped, according to data released on Friday. President Trump's tariffs have added to uncertainty on exports and are looming over the world's second-largest economy. Concerns linger despite Trump extending a pause in sharp hikes in import duties for 90 days, beginning Monday, following a 90-day pause that began in May. AP reports: Read more here. China's economy lagged in July as factory output and retails sales slowed and house prices dropped, according to data released on Friday. President Trump's tariffs have added to uncertainty on exports and are looming over the world's second-largest economy. Concerns linger despite Trump extending a pause in sharp hikes in import duties for 90 days, beginning Monday, following a 90-day pause that began in May. AP reports: Read more here. Taiwan lifts 2025 growth forecast, defying US tariff worries Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. These tariffs are bananas An interesting spot from this week's inflation data: Prices for the reliable, potassium-heavy banana have jumped to their highest price ever recorded. Banana prices peaked around $0.64 per pound in the post-COVID inflation wave and then went on a slow downward trajectory. That is, until April 2025, when President Trump announced his first wave of sweeping tariffs. Prices are now hovering near $0.66 per pound. As the Yale Budget Lab chief Ernie Tedeschi noted on X, the average tariff rate on banana imports went from virtually nothing to very much something as Trump imposed tariffs on most US trading partners. That's nuts! An interesting spot from this week's inflation data: Prices for the reliable, potassium-heavy banana have jumped to their highest price ever recorded. Banana prices peaked around $0.64 per pound in the post-COVID inflation wave and then went on a slow downward trajectory. That is, until April 2025, when President Trump announced his first wave of sweeping tariffs. Prices are now hovering near $0.66 per pound. As the Yale Budget Lab chief Ernie Tedeschi noted on X, the average tariff rate on banana imports went from virtually nothing to very much something as Trump imposed tariffs on most US trading partners. That's nuts! Tapestry forecasts annual profit below estimates on tariff pain Tapestry (TPR) stock fell 8% before the bell on Thursday after the Coach handbag maker forecast annual profit below estimates. The company cited higher costs due to tariffs that have hit its margins. Reuters reports: Read more here. Tapestry (TPR) stock fell 8% before the bell on Thursday after the Coach handbag maker forecast annual profit below estimates. The company cited higher costs due to tariffs that have hit its margins. Reuters reports: Read more here. Tariff confusion drives record volume at Los Angeles Port (Bloomberg) — The Port of Los Angeles said it handled the highest container volume in its 117-year history last month, as uncertainty over President Donald Trump's tariffs drives shippers to front-load cargoes. Already the busiest port in the country, LA moved more than 1 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) in July, an 8.5% increase from a year ago, the operator said on Wednesday. That includes containers entering and exiting its terminals, with loaded imports rising by a similar percentage to nearly 544,000 TEUs. The total volume handled was 14.2% higher than in June. Read more here. (Bloomberg) — The Port of Los Angeles said it handled the highest container volume in its 117-year history last month, as uncertainty over President Donald Trump's tariffs drives shippers to front-load cargoes. Already the busiest port in the country, LA moved more than 1 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) in July, an 8.5% increase from a year ago, the operator said on Wednesday. That includes containers entering and exiting its terminals, with loaded imports rising by a similar percentage to nearly 544,000 TEUs. The total volume handled was 14.2% higher than in June. Read more here. Pharma tariffs are likely weeks away, Reuters reports US tariffs on pharmaceutical imports are coming but not imminent, Reuters reported Wednesday, citing unnamed sources. Trump has previously warned duties on the drug industry could reach as much as 250%. Reuters reports: Read more here. US tariffs on pharmaceutical imports are coming but not imminent, Reuters reported Wednesday, citing unnamed sources. Trump has previously warned duties on the drug industry could reach as much as 250%. Reuters reports: Read more here. Brazil's Lula announces $5.5 billion in credits for exporters hit by US tariffs Brazilinan President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has announced a plan that includes $5 billion in credit to help local exporters handle tariffs . Associated Press reports: Read more here. Brazilinan President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has announced a plan that includes $5 billion in credit to help local exporters handle tariffs . Associated Press reports: Read more here. Swiss say tariffs could raise costs for US F-35A jets The original price of the 36 fighter jets Switzerland is buying from the United States could go up by more than $1 billion due to the impacts of tariffs. Reuters reports: Read more from Reuters here. The original price of the 36 fighter jets Switzerland is buying from the United States could go up by more than $1 billion due to the impacts of tariffs. Reuters reports: Read more from Reuters here. AI boom could help manufacturers adapt to global tariff landscape Mark Bendeich of Reuters details how the confluence of supply chain disruption from Trump's tariff policy and the rise of AI software solutions is leading to increased innovation among manufacturers. Richard Howells, SAP vice president and supply chain specialist, emphasized that the uncertainty surrouding Trump's trade policy is driving the technology push. "That's how it was during the financial crisis, Brexit and COVID," Howells stated. "And it's what we're seeing now." Read more here. Mark Bendeich of Reuters details how the confluence of supply chain disruption from Trump's tariff policy and the rise of AI software solutions is leading to increased innovation among manufacturers. Richard Howells, SAP vice president and supply chain specialist, emphasized that the uncertainty surrouding Trump's trade policy is driving the technology push. "That's how it was during the financial crisis, Brexit and COVID," Howells stated. "And it's what we're seeing now." Read more here. GE Appliances to invest over $3B in US, moving from China and Mexico GE Appliances will move production of its refrigerators, gas ranges and water heaters from China and Mexico, investing over $3 billion to expand plans in five US states. AP News reports: Read more here. GE Appliances will move production of its refrigerators, gas ranges and water heaters from China and Mexico, investing over $3 billion to expand plans in five US states. AP News reports: Read more here. Bessent dismisses China investing in US as part of a trade deal Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent ruled out Chinese investments as part of a US trade deal. When asked if China would offer a multi-billion dollar pleadges like Japan, South Korea and the EU, Bessent said no. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent ruled out Chinese investments as part of a US trade deal. When asked if China would offer a multi-billion dollar pleadges like Japan, South Korea and the EU, Bessent said no. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. Tariffs bring in record $27.7 billion in July as Trump calls haul 'incredible for our country' Yahoo Finance's Brett LoGiurato and Ben Werschkul report: Yahoo Finance's Brett LoGiurato and Ben Werschkul report: Xi takes aim at US 'protectionism' in phone call with Lula Leaders of the BRICS nations seem to be in talks. Brazilian President Lula spoke with China's leader Xi after meeting with India and Russia. This outreach comes after President Trump pulled Brazil into his trade war. During the call, China's Xi urged for coordinated efforts against US protectionism. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. Leaders of the BRICS nations seem to be in talks. Brazilian President Lula spoke with China's leader Xi after meeting with India and Russia. This outreach comes after President Trump pulled Brazil into his trade war. During the call, China's Xi urged for coordinated efforts against US protectionism. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. Soybean futures fall after Trump extends trade truce with China Soybean (ZS=F) prices fell back below $10 a bushel on Tuesday, after news of the US-China trade truce extension. Traders saw this truce as likely delaying major grain-purchasing deals between the two nations until later this year. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. Soybean (ZS=F) prices fell back below $10 a bushel on Tuesday, after news of the US-China trade truce extension. Traders saw this truce as likely delaying major grain-purchasing deals between the two nations until later this year. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. European Union awaits US follow-up on trade deal promises BRUSSELS (Reuters) - The European Union could not say when a joint statement on tariffs with the United States would be ready, nor when the White House would issue an executive order on European car import duties, a spokesperson said on Tuesday. The EU and U.S. reached a framework trade agreement at the end of July but only the 15% baseline tariff on European exports had so far come into effect, as of last week. EU officials previously said a joint statement would follow the deal "very soon" along with executive orders from U.S. President Donald Trump on key carve-outs. "It is an agreement that we believe is strong and the best we could have ... Of course, we expect the U.S. to take further steps that are part of this agreement but I don't believe at this stage we can put a timeline on these engagements," the European Commission spokesperson said. Read more here. BRUSSELS (Reuters) - The European Union could not say when a joint statement on tariffs with the United States would be ready, nor when the White House would issue an executive order on European car import duties, a spokesperson said on Tuesday. The EU and U.S. reached a framework trade agreement at the end of July but only the 15% baseline tariff on European exports had so far come into effect, as of last week. EU officials previously said a joint statement would follow the deal "very soon" along with executive orders from U.S. President Donald Trump on key carve-outs. "It is an agreement that we believe is strong and the best we could have ... Of course, we expect the U.S. to take further steps that are part of this agreement but I don't believe at this stage we can put a timeline on these engagements," the European Commission spokesperson said. Read more here. 'Climate of uncertainty' remains after China-US trade extension Zhou Mi, an expert at the Ministry of Commerce-backed Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation, told Bloomberg that there remains a "climate of uncertainty" despite the latest 90-day pause on additional tariffs enacted by the US on Monday. The Trump administration 'frequently sends out a range of signals, often through its negotiation tactics and public statements — some of which even contradict each other,' Zhou told Bloomberg. 'This creates a climate of uncertainty that makes businesses and markets increasingly concerned about the stability and outlook for economic and trade policies between China and the US, as well as the US and other countries." Average US tariffs on good imported from China currently sit at 55%. Read more here. Zhou Mi, an expert at the Ministry of Commerce-backed Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation, told Bloomberg that there remains a "climate of uncertainty" despite the latest 90-day pause on additional tariffs enacted by the US on Monday. The Trump administration 'frequently sends out a range of signals, often through its negotiation tactics and public statements — some of which even contradict each other,' Zhou told Bloomberg. 'This creates a climate of uncertainty that makes businesses and markets increasingly concerned about the stability and outlook for economic and trade policies between China and the US, as well as the US and other countries." Average US tariffs on good imported from China currently sit at 55%. Read more here. Swiss precious metals group wants 'a formal and binding decision' on Trump gold tariff promise Not everyone is fully satisfied with President Donald Trump's social media statement on not putting tariffs on gold after uncertainty in the bullion market in recent days. "President Trump's statement is an encouraging signal for trade stability," Christoph Wild, president of the the the Swiss precious metals association ASFCMP, stated on Tuesday. "However, only a formal and binding decision will provide the certainty the gold sector and its partners require." Read more here. Not everyone is fully satisfied with President Donald Trump's social media statement on not putting tariffs on gold after uncertainty in the bullion market in recent days. "President Trump's statement is an encouraging signal for trade stability," Christoph Wild, president of the the the Swiss precious metals association ASFCMP, stated on Tuesday. "However, only a formal and binding decision will provide the certainty the gold sector and its partners require." Read more here. China urges firms not to use Nvidia H20 chips in new guidance China has told local companies to avoid using Nvidia (NVDA) H20 processors, especially for government work. This makes it harder for Nvidia to recover billions in lost sales in China and affects the US government's plan to benefit from those sales. This latest move by China appears to be in response to the deal Nvidia and AMD (AMD) made with the US government over the weekend to pay the US 15% of the revenue for AI-related chip sales to China, adding a monetization layer to the Trump administration's tariff policy that has reoriented global trade relationships. In recent weeks, Chinese officials warned several firms against using these less advanced chips. The strongest advice was to keep J20 processors out of government national security projects, both for state-owned and private companies. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. China has told local companies to avoid using Nvidia (NVDA) H20 processors, especially for government work. This makes it harder for Nvidia to recover billions in lost sales in China and affects the US government's plan to benefit from those sales. This latest move by China appears to be in response to the deal Nvidia and AMD (AMD) made with the US government over the weekend to pay the US 15% of the revenue for AI-related chip sales to China, adding a monetization layer to the Trump administration's tariff policy that has reoriented global trade relationships. In recent weeks, Chinese officials warned several firms against using these less advanced chips. The strongest advice was to keep J20 processors out of government national security projects, both for state-owned and private companies. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. Japan's Nikkei hits record high on tariff relief, tech rally The Nikkei 225 (^N225) hit a record high Tuesday as easing US tariff fears boosted optimism, led by tech stocks and tariff relief. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. The Nikkei 225 (^N225) hit a record high Tuesday as easing US tariff fears boosted optimism, led by tech stocks and tariff relief. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data


The Hill
26 minutes ago
- The Hill
Note to critics of the Trump tariffs: This is not the 1930s
You could practically hear the cheering on Thursday as critics of President Trump finally got what they've waited months for — some indication that tariffs might (finally!) drive prices higher. Yesterday's Producer Price Index report showed wholesale prices jumped 0.9 percent over the last month, the biggest gain since June 2022. It followed another benign Consumer Price Index report published earlier in the week, making it all the more surprising. But, more than three-quarters of the gain was driven by services price escalation; there was some rise in the cost of machinery and other end goods, but the impact from tariffs was inconclusive. Here's a fact: No one — not Fed Chairman Jay Powell, not Goldman Sachs' CEO David Solomon, not Paul Krugman, who predicted markets would collapse if Trump were elected in 2016, nor all the talking heads on Bloomberg and elsewhere who have blasted Trump's tariff regimen — has any idea how his upending of global trade terms will turn out. There has never been a country that dominated the global economy as the U.S. now does, nor has there ever been a president like Trump determined to take advantage of that clout. Many have compared his tariffs with the stiff duties imposed by the Smoot-Hawley Act of 1930, but there are huge differences between then and now, which may account for some of the unrelenting negativity about the president's program. Today, unlike then, the U.S. is the essential nation for producers of consumer goods. Americans spent $20 trillion last year, compared to $10 trillion by residents of the European Union and $8 trillion by Chinese citizens. Though the U.S. accounted for a larger share of global GDP in 1930 than it does today (35 percent vs. 26 percent), we were not the primary buyer of other countries' goods. In fact, in 1930, the U.S. enjoyed a trade surplus; last year, the U.S. had a net goods trade deficit of $1.2 trillion and an overall (including services) trade deficit of $918 billion — a record. Consequently, we have not seen countries retaliate against the tariffs imposed by the president as they did in the 1930s. The Smoot-Hawley tariffs averaged 59.1 percent on some 20,000 different categories of goods. In response, as the Foundation for Economic Education recalls, 'An outraged Canada slammed tariffs on goods that accounted for 30 per cent of American exports. France, Germany and the British Empire followed suit, either turning to alternative markets or developing substitute manufacturing that would replace goods previously acquired from America — or elsewhere, since many other countries were erecting wall-of-death tariffs.' This time, at least so far, there has been remarkably little of that retaliatory tit-for-tat. Some countries best positioned to punch back, like Canada, whose economy is inextricably integrated with that of its southern neighbor, have backed off threats to do so. Three-quarters of Canada's exports are to the U.S., and exports account for a hefty 34 percent of the country's GDP. A recent threat to slap U.S. tech companies with a heavy new tax vanished as Canadian officials tread carefully, hoping to eliminate the 35 percent tariff on Canadian imports not covered by the USMCA trade agreement, as well as a 50 percent tax on aluminum and steel imported from Canada. Otherwise, China is the most obvious hold-out to Trump's tariff regimen. Because of its grip on rare earths that are essential to U.S. manufacturers, and because it supplies a huge amount of cheap goods to American consumers, Beijing has serious leverage over the United States. Like Trump, they are willing to use it. Still, China's economy is struggling and President Xi Jinping must know that playing hardball with Trump will eventually be a losing game. 'Between 1929 and 1933,' the Foundation for Economic Education continues, 'U.S. imports collapsed by 66 per cent. Exports plummeted by 61 per cent. Total global trade fell by a similar amount.' Some consider the global depression responsible for much of the drop; others blame tariffs. Many economists and analysts today say that history should serve as a warning against the measures being enacted by Trump. The critics have relied too much on that historical comparison. In addition, political animus has driven liberal pundits to take (and promote) the darkest view imaginable about Trump's program. So far, most have been wrong. For months they predicted that tariffs placed on imports would drive inflation higher; they haven't. They predicted that the duties placed on imports would crush growth and lead to a recession. With consumer spending steadily advancing, according to credit card data, those dark days have yet to appear. Democrats are positively hoping for disaster. Trump ran on a platform of wrestling down Joe Biden's inflation; his adversaries are hoping he will fail, and they see tariffs as the likely agent of his failure. Bloomberg, MSNBC et the others have enthusiastically promoted the direst of predictions month after month, anticipating each new release of inflation data with the eagerness of kids waiting for Santa Claus. While glumly reporting month after month of weaker than expected inflation, the merchants of gloom inevitably add a '… yet.' They are positive that any minute now the tariff damage will blossom. They may be right; tariffs will almost surely boost prices, but the impact should be modest (after all, imports are only about 11 percent of our economy). At some point the pontificators will have to reassess their assumptions about how businesses and consumers will adapt to the higher duties. Many companies are scrambling to change their sourcing to avoid tariffs, and Americans are navigating around the price increases where possible. The end game for Trump is bringing more manufacturing to the U.S., beefing up industries essential to our security — like steel — and earning significant revenues as a valuable byproduct. How this all plays out is uncertain, but that Trump is committed to all three goals is not.


The Hill
26 minutes ago
- The Hill
Whole Hog Politics: Checking in on Election Day 2025
On the menu: Classical on the rocks; Newsom unveils Texas revenge package; Brown in; Where do you put 653 House members?; A dumpling for a bear There are many kinds of bias in the news business, but few as durable and reliable as New Yorkism: the outsized place that news happening in America's media capital gets in the national discussion. While home to an impressively large 6 percent of the nation's population, the New York metropolitan area definitely gets more than its fair share of coverage thanks to being the home to the two largest newspapers in the country and the headquarters of every broadcast news division. So it has been with the coverage of New York's mayoral election, which, aside from being easy and interesting to cover for big-time journos, has featured a great deal of drama: A surprising primary win by telegenic socialist Zohran Mamdani, who disrupted former Gov. Andrew Cuomo 's comeback bid. It's got ideological polarization, allegations of antisemitism, personal attacks, the always-wild incumbent Eric Adams and a guy with signature headwear. But what New York doesn't seem to have right now is a very competitive race. With less than 12 weeks to go, Mamdani seems to have not only weathered the initial backlash after his surprise victory but established himself as the nearly prohibitive front-runner. A new Siena University poll shows Mamdani up 19 points over Cuomo, 32 points over Republican Curtis Sliwa and 37 points ahead of Adams. There is still a considerable chunk of undecided voters or supporters of candidates even more marginal than Adams, but even with ranked choice voting, it doesn't look like much of a race. If Cuomo was the second choice of every Adams and Sliwa voter — which he won't be — and none of the undecided came in for Mamdani — which some of them will — it would only be a tie in an automatic runoff. Woof. The good news for Cuomo here is that Adams is far below the viability threshold and that 7 percent could become just a point or two as voters conclude he isn't a serious contender. The former governor has time to change the race, but that's a tall order when you're such a well-defined quantity in voter's minds. He can't sneak up on anybody the way Mamdani could in the primary. So what about the races not in New York, particularly across the river in New Jersey and down in Virginia. While New York City's electorate and issues bear little resemblance to the broader nation, here are a couple of medium-sized states with populations that end up looking a great deal like the broad, national electorate the parties will confront in next year's midterms. Let's start next door in New Jersey, where Republicans are hoping that suburbanites' backlash against Mamdani's perceived radicalism will work in their favor. New Jersey Republicans also have a tried and tested candidate in Jack Ciattarelli, a former state assembly member who came within 3 points of unseating incumbent Gov. Phil Murphy four years ago. But Democrats have a good horse in the race too, having picked moderate, four-term Rep. Mikie Sherrill to succeed the term-limited Murphy. Republicans are getting excited because in two polls since the general election was set in June, Ciattarelli has been within 8 points and 6 points of the Democratic front-runner. Given that Ciattarelli closed a much wider gap to make the race competitive with Murphy in 2021, this sounds like a possible winner for Republicans. But we should note the significant differences between then and now: Murphy was bogged down by the unpopularity of his aggressive COVID restrictions and voters were growing increasingly frustrated with the ineffectual and left-leaning Biden administration. Local man Donald Trump wasn't really in the picture. Now much of that has been reversed. Those same polls show that Trump is even more unpopular than Murphy in New Jersey and voters looking to send a message of change will be voting for the blue team and not the red. Neither candidate has huge statewide name identification but neither seems obviously defective, so this will probably function more like a generic ballot test than a clash of personalities. And that's what has New Jersey Democrats feeling, as the saying goes, 'nauseously optimistic.' In Virginia, the nausea is all on the GOP side, where Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears is trying to become the first Republican to hold the governor's mansion for her party in consecutive terms since 1998 as she seeks to succeed Gov. Glenn Youngkin. For an idea of how that's working out, the state's police union took the unusual step of endorsing Earle-Sears's Democratic opponent, former Rep. Abigail Spanberger, before endorsing every other Republican candidate for statewide office. There are snubs, and then there are snubs … There's cross river context in Virginia, too. In Washington, D.C., across the Potomac, President Trump is taking over the police and bulldozing homeless encampments as he denounces crime and disorder. Spanberger, though, made a strenuous point about maintaining a tough-on-crime stance and shunning 'defund the police' rhetoric in her time in Congress. But other than on law-and-order issues, everything else Trump is doing to the race is negative for his party in Virginia. Mass federal firings, culture war shenanigans and increasingly broad immigration enforcement measures are all liabilities in a state that relies on federal paychecks, has among the most college-educated electorates in the country and a large and growing Hispanic population. That leaves Earle-Sears in a tricky spot when it comes to the leader of her party, who has at least so far done her the favor of not publicly endorsing her or threatening to campaign for her. There has not been a ton of polling in the race, but the little that we have shows Spanberger, who enjoys a massive fundraising advantage, in something of a boat race. She's up 14 points in a Virginia Commonwealth University poll with an electorate that has a pretty favorable view of Youngkin and a pretty poor view of Trump. Again, almost 12 weeks is a long time, but without a change in the race soon, this one will fall out of reach for Republicans before the first day of fall. Holy croakano! We welcome your feedback, so please email us with your tips, corrections, reactions, amplifications, etc. at WHOLEHOGPOLITICS@ If you'd like to be considered for publication, please include your real name and hometown. If you don't want your comments to be made public, please specify. NUTRITIONAL INFORMATION Trump Job Performance Average Approval: 43 percent Average Disapproval: 53.2 percent Net Score: -10.2 points Change from last week: No change Change from one month ago: ↑ 2.2 points [ Average includes: CNBC 46 percent approve – 51 percent disapprove; Ipsos/Reuters 40 percent approve – 56 percent disapprove; Emerson 46 percent approve – 47 percent disapprove; Fox News 46 percent approve – 54 percent disapprove; Gallup 37 percent approve – 58 percent disapprove] More Americans choose not to booze Do you have occasion to use alcoholic beverages such as liquor, wine or beer, or are you a total abstainer? Yes, drink; No, total abstainer 2021: 60 percent; 39 percent 2022: 67 percent; 33 percent 2025: 54 percent; 44 percent [Gallup survey of 1,002 adults, July 7-21, 2025] ON THE SIDE: HAYDN IN PLAIN SIGHT The New York Times: 'For the last decade, the classical pianist Hunter Noack has been embarking on an unusual journey: He hauls a thousand-pound 1912 Steinway concert grand piano to places in the outdoors not known for hosting concerts. Picture a man seated at a piano beside a lake. It could also be on a mountaintop, in a forest or meadow. … 'I get excited at the idea of bringing a piano where no piano has gone before,' Noack said. … The concerts are held rain or shine, hot or cold. (The temperature during concerts has ranged from subfreezing to above 100 degrees.) Among the notable locales where Noack has played are the entrance to Yellowstone (via the Roosevelt Arch in Montana), Joshua Tree National Park in California, Crater Lake in southern Oregon and Banff National Park in Canada. … Among other wildlife that made appearances were free-range horses, birds and deer.' PRIME CUTS Newsom plows ahead with redistricting, frames move as temporary: ABC News: 'California Gov. Gavin Newsom announced Thursday that he is moving forward with putting proposed new congressional maps for the state on the ballot on a Nov. 4 special election in an attempt to counter mid-decade redistricting being pushed by Republicans in Texas. … He said the state government will affirm its commitment to the state's independent redistricting commission after the 2030 census, 'but we're asking the voters for their consent to do midterm redistricting in 2026, 2028 and 2030 for the congressional maps to respond to what's happening in Texas … and we'll do so in a way that also affirms our desire as a state to level the playing field all across the United States.'' ICE puts a chill on the event: KTLA: 'Federal agents were in attendance as Gov. Gavin Newsom took to downtown Los Angeles Thursday to promote his redistricting plan. Newsom, who has proposed changing California's congressional districts to offset a similar action by Republican-controlled Texas, spoke at the Japanese American National Museum. Just outside in the Little Tokyo area, however, about 100 federal agents gathered, presumably for another immigration raid.' A muddled race for California governor: WHTM: 'New polling in the California Governor's race shows Katie Porter (D) and Steve Hilton (R) leading the field after former Vice President Kamala Harris decided not to enter the race. The survey showed the former congresswoman Porter leading the field with 18% with a six-point bump since April. Hilton, a media personality and former British policy advisor, received 12% in his first appearance in the Emerson College Polling survey. Former Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco (R) received 7%, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa (D) received 5%, and businessman Rick Caruso (D) received 4% in the Emerson College Polling survey. Thirty-eight percent of voters polled were undecided in the race, down from 54% in April when Harris had not yet announced her intentions to stay out of the race. … Voters were largely split on Newsom's plan to potentially redraw congressional districts in response to Texas, with 33% of California voters favoring a redraw, 25% opposed, and 42% undecided.' Kounalakis ditches race to succeed Newsom: KCRA: ' Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis has dropped out of the 2026 governor's race and is instead running for another state office … Kounalakis' campaign website now has multiple references across her page that indicate she is now running to become the state treasurer.' Brown tries again, banking on Ohio midterm swing: The New York Times: 'Former Senator Sherrod Brown of Ohio plans to try to return to the Senate in 2026, giving the Democratic Party a strong recruit in its effort to take back control of the chamber next year, according to three people with knowledge of his decision. Mr. Brown, who served in the Senate for three terms until his defeat in 2024, immediately becomes the Democratic front-runner to face Senator Jon Husted, a freshman Republican whom Gov. Mike DeWine appointed to fill the vacancy created by JD Vance 's elevation to the vice presidency. … In the Senate race, Mr. Husted is seeking to win the remainder of Mr. Vance's term. Whoever wins will need to face voters again in 2028 to secure a full six-year term. … Republicans currently hold a 53-47 Senate majority, and Mr. Vance serves as a tiebreaking vote, meaning Democrats must flip four seats to regain control of the chamber.' Maine Dems, weary of waiting on Gov. Janet Mills, ready challenges to Collins: The Washington Post: 'Sen. Susan Collins is, by far, the most vulnerable Republican senator facing voters next year. And yet, Democrats are grumbling about the campaign against her, with many waiting — somewhat begrudgingly — to see if Maine Gov. Janet Mills will challenge the five-term incumbent. … Mills is currently the only elected Democrat in Maine with a proven ability to win statewide. … She is viewed in Maine as a centrist Democrat. … While some Democrats see Mills as their best shot at defeating Collins, it's not clear what the governor herself wants to do. … There was some hope among national Democrats that Rep. Jared Golden would challenge Collins, but he declined to run for Senate and is instead running for reelection. Ryan Fecteau, the speaker of the Maine House, and Cathy Breen, a former state senator, are both considering a possible bid, Democrats tell us. … And Aaron Frey, the attorney general of Maine, is likely to get in if Mills does not run.' Crunching the numbers on North Carolina Senate: DDHQ: '[A] look at the aggregate U.S. House vote in North Carolina [in 2024] suggests the state could shift to the left sufficiently for Democrats to win in a state that Trump carried by about 3 points in 2024. … Yet the less right-leaning 2024 result does not necessarily augur that Democrats can count on North Carolina to shift their way if the nation does. This is because North Carolina is generally one of the more 'inelastic' states in U.S. elections — that is, its electorate tends to move less in response to swings in the national electoral environment. That's partly because of racial polarization: North Carolina's white voters have a clear Republican lean while the state's sizable base of Black voters — about one-fifth of the electorate, second to only Georgia in magnitude among swing states — are overwhelmingly Democratic. In terms of its party allegiances, this makes North Carolina's electorate 'stickier' year-in and year-out.' SHORT ORDER Freedom Caucus stalwart jumps in race to succeed [ Tommy ] Tuberville in Alabama — The Hill Poll shows [ Elise ] Stefanik way behind but gaining on Hochul for NY governor — The Hill Effort to unseat Sen. Lindsey Graham in South Carolina primary narrows to a mega MAGA stalwart — The Hill Georgia AG files suit to block his rival in gubernatorial run from self-funding — AP Chip Roy, long a thorn in House leadership's side, eyes Texas AG run — The Hill DeSantis, frozen out by state GOP, may be grooming successor with Lt. Gov. pick — AP Warning signs for Republicans with Hispanic voters — Liberal Patriot 2028 Watch: [ Ruben ] Gallego wraps Iowa visit, on to New Hampshire — The Hill TABLE TALK: MAGA MIRAGE 'All of the candidates in the race think they're the Trump candidate.' — Alex Stroman, former South Carolina GOP executive director, on the increasingly nasty race for governor in the Palmetto State, which includes Rep. Nancy Mace and state Attorney General Alan Wilson. MAILBAG 'I believe that, as long as there are people interested in politics and outcomes, there will be gerrymandering. The real current problem concerning it is there is not a level playing field for the two opposing parties. Redistricting commissions get in the way in too many big Democratic-controlled states and they need to be undone. Some people think that having such commissions staffed by independent people everywhere would be the cure. I disagree. Where are you going to find competent independent people who truly don't care about outcomes? The moon? If you add 218 or however many extra people to the House of Representatives, where are they going to sit? Will committee hearings and floor votes all be conducted via Zoom?' — Ken Stevens, Columbia, Md. Mr. Stevens, I tend to agree with you about the necessity of understanding redistricting for what it is: an exercise of political power. I am sure that those folks who live in places like your hometown in the Baltimore burbs feel that most intensely as it relates to Democrats in urban centers, while those who live in an urban center in a red state, say, Nashville, would experience it most acutely from the other direction. It would be better if state legislators cared more about designing districts that provided the best, most stable, most convenient districts for their constituents and less about obtaining partisan advantage. But if Old Bay didn't have paprika in it, it wouldn't stain your fingers when you picked crabs. It's just the way of things. And impartial commissions don't ultimately solve the problem because each map involves subjective decisionmaking, in which competing goods must be balanced. Is it more essential for a district to be compact or to contain voters of a similar socioeconomic or cultural situation? What about precedent? Should longstanding districts be maintained even when the population changes? All are worthwhile considerations, but often in conflict. Vesting that power in the hands of commissions insulates those decisionmakers from the voting public. There is a great deal to be said for having experts craft potential maps from which lawmakers can choose. I think a system in which lawmakers assigned the work of drafting four or five maps and then holding hearings before voting strikes me as a good compromise. But the most direct way to deal with gerrymandering is, I believe, expanding the House of Representatives so that the consequences of any single gerrymandering would be much smaller. It would also create more competitive, swing districts regardless of the best efforts of the gerrymanderers. As for what to do with another 218 members of the House, Washington Post columnist Danielle Allen asked architects to take a stab at how to accommodate new members and some of the results were, frankly, pretty cool, particularly putting the House 'in the round.' All best, c 'When I ran for Congress back in 2002, there were about 625,000 people in the district, but it only took about 15,000 votes to win the Republican Primary, and since it was a pretty red district, the winner of the primary was a shoo-in in November. That needs to end, since it essentially means the 'tail is wagging' the dog. I think Congress should go back to the old ways and pick a number, be it 100,000, 200,000, 250,000, whatever … and then however many districts that creates is how many it creates, so be it. As the population grows, the number of Representatives will grow. I'm envisioning at least 2,000 or more Representatives and growing. … On the other hand, people will complain that the Capitol can't hold that many representatives, to that I say. … Why have Congress meet in Washington at all? Remote voting should be allowed. Why not just have them all do one huge video conference?' — Dave Kovatch, Rhodelia, Ky. Mr. Kovatch, Whoa, whoa, whoa! I love your enthusiasm, but that's a lot of lawmakers. We want for members of Congress to be able to reason together and experience a little unit cohesion. The House should be for exercising political competition within itself but also against the Senate, the states, the judiciary and, most essentially, the executive. Thousands of lawmakers connected virtually with one and other strikes me as a recipe for increased factionalism and an even greater degree of partisan capture. Ideally, lawmakers come to town and develop both expertise and relationships as they serve. At the end of three terms in the House, we'd hope to see members who have developed mastery of subjects and of the legislative process. Committee assignments should be consequential because committees should be powerful. I think that can be accommodated while growing the House by 50 percent, but not in a world where the members never have to leave the comfort of their home offices. In fact, I'd also like to ditch the housing allowance and build dormitory housing for lawmakers while they are in town. All best, c You should email us! Write to WHOLEHOGPOLITICS@ with your tips, kudos, criticisms, insights, rediscovered words, wonderful names, recipes, and, always, good jokes. Please include your real name — at least first and last — and hometown. Make sure to let us know in the email if you want to keep your submission private. My colleague, the personable Meera Sehgal, and I will look for your emails and then share the most interesting ones and my responses here. Clickety clack! FOR DESSERT: GRITTY WOULD HAVE STOOD HIS GROUND AP: '[Pro hockey team] Seattle Kraken forward John Hayden and the team's blue-haired troll mascot had a close call with a brown bear during a promotional video shoot in Alaska. Hayden and the mascot named Buoy were on a fly-fishing outing in Katmai National Park as part of a trip promoting youth hockey when the bear approached, video released by the team shows. Knee-deep in a shallow river, they wore waders and other fly-fishing gear. Hayden had been fishing, but a guide quickly took the rod from him. The bear charged toward the mascot, splashing water, but turned away before making contact as Hayden, Buoy and the film crew waded back to shore through a gentle current. … The NHL team said it didn't intend to involve the bear in filming, but included it in a video posted to social media. … 'I want to blame it on Buoy,' Hayden said on the video afterward. 'They were pretty interested in his look.'' Chris Stirewalt is the politics editor for The Hill and NewsNation, the host of 'The Hill Sunday' on NewsNation and The CW, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and the author of books on politics and the media. Meera Sehgal contributed to this report.