U.S. consumer spending falls unexpectedly in May

Globe and Mail

5 hours ago

U.S. consumer spending unexpectedly fell in May as the boost from the pre-emptive buying of goods like motor vehicles ahead of tariffs faded, while monthly inflation increases remained moderate.
Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of economic activity, dropped 0.1 per cent last month after an unrevised 0.2 per cent gain in April, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis said on Friday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast consumer spending would edge up 0.1 per cent.
President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs, which have led businesses and households to front-run imports and goods purchases to avoid higher prices from duties, have muddled the economic picture. Economists warned it could take time for the tariff-related distortions to wash out of the data.
A record goods trade deficit in the first quarter, thanks to a deluge of imports, accounted for much of the 0.5 per cent annualized rate of decline in gross domestic product during that period.
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Consumer spending also nearly braked last quarter after being propelled by households pulling forward goods purchases. Households also spent less on services last quarter, helping to restrain growth in consumer spending to only a 0.5 per cent pace, the slowest rate since the second quarter of 2020.
That data potentially puts spending on a slow growth path in the second quarter.
The combination of soft consumer spending and inflation is, however, unlikely to spur the Federal Reserve to resume cutting interest rates in July. Fed Chair Jerome Powell told lawmakers this week that the U.S. central bank needed more time to gauge the impact of tariffs on prices before considering a rate cut.
Economists argue that price increases have remained moderate because businesses are still selling inventory accumulated before the tariffs went into effect. They expect inflation will start picking up, beginning with consumer price data for June.
U.S. economy shrank 0.5% in the first quarter, worse than earlier estimates had revealed
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index gained 0.1 per cent in May, matching the rise in April, the BEA said. In the 12 months through May, PCE inflation increased 2.3 per cent after climbing 2.2 per cent in April.
Stripping out the volatile food and energy components, the PCE Price Index increased 0.2 per cent last month. That followed a 0.1 per cent rise in the so-called core PCE inflation in April.
In the 12 months through April, core inflation advanced 2.7 per cent after rising 2.6 per cent in April. The Fed tracks the PCE price measures for its 2 per cent inflation target. The central bank last week left its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 4.25-4.50 per cent range, where it has been since December.