A ceasefire in Gaza appears to be close. Here's why it could happen now
On Friday, Donald Trump said he expected Hamas to agree within 24 hours to a deal that Israel has already accepted. Analysts predict a formal announcement after Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel's prime minister, arrives in Washington on Monday on his third visit to the White House since Trump began his current term.
If a new ceasefire does come into effect, it will be the third during the war, in which about 57,000 Palestinians, mostly civilians, have died.
The first lasted just 10 days in November 2023. The second was forced on a reluctant Netanyahu by Trump in February this year and ended in March when Israel reneged on a promise to move to a second scheduled phase that could have led to a definitive end to hostilities.
The terms of the new deal include the staggered release of hostages held by Hamas; freedom for hundreds of Palestinians in Israeli jails; desperately needed aid for Gaza; and the phased withdrawal of Israeli forces from some parts of the strip seized in recent months.
Once again, the ceasefire will last for 60 days, during which time talks about what happens next will be held. Trump and regional powers are offering guarantees to reassure Hamas that Israel will not simply return to an all-out offensive and that meaningful discussions about a permanent end to the war will actually take place.
One factor that has brought a new ceasefire closer is the brief conflict last month between Israel and Iran, which ended in a US-brokered ceasefire. That capped a series of military and political developments that had seriously weakened Tehran and the various militant groups it had supported around the region, which include Hamas.
More important is the boost that gave Netanyahu. Though polls record only a slight increase in support for his Likud party and in his personal popularity, many Israelis nonetheless rejoiced in what was seen as a crushing victory over a much-feared foe.
If Netanyahu brings the war in Gaza to what voters see as a successful, or at least acceptable, close, Netanyahu can stand in elections – probably next year – claiming to be the man who made Israel safer than it has ever been, even if few have forgotten the security and strategic failures that led to the Hamas attack of October 2023 in which militants took 251 hostages and killed 1,200, mostly civilians.
By the end of this month, Israel's parliament will have risen for a three-month recess and courts will also not sit, giving Netanyahu respite from the threat of a no-confidence vote or dissolution motion as well as from continuing cross-examination in his trial for corruption. This undermines the threats to collapse the government made throughout the conflict in Gaza by far-right coalition allies bitterly opposed to a deal with Hamas.
Successive opinion surveys show that an agreement that brings back hostages would be very popular with Israelis, so this, too, would help Netanyahu in elections. Israeli casualties in Gaza – 20 soldiers died in June – are also causing concern. A poll published by Maariv, an Israeli newspaper, on Friday showed a further boost for the prime minister as hopes of a ceasefire rose.
As for Hamas, analysts and sources close to its leaders say the militant Islamist organisation is divided, much weakened by the Israeli onslaught in Gaza and aware that it has few allies who can or will offer any practical support. The main aim of its leaders now is to retain some presence in Gaza, even a residual one. This alone would constitute some form of victory, and partly explains the determination with which Hamas seek a permanent end to the fighting.
Whether it will get one is still not clear. Israeli media have been briefed by 'sources close to Netanyahu' that if Hamas cannot be disarmed in Gaza and its leaders exiled from the devastated territory through negotiations then Israel will resume military operations, and that Washington would support its decision to return to war. Many 'close to Netanyahu' also continue to support mass 'voluntary' emigration from Gaza, or the relocation of much of its population to an area in the south, or both.
Recent days have been noisy with voices: American, Israeli, Saudi Arabian, Qatari and many others. Barely heard have been the voices of the 2.3 million Palestinians in Gaza, where Israel's offensive continues. On Friday, local officials and medics said Israeli airstrikes killed 15 Palestinians in the territory and another 20 people died in shootings while waiting at food points.
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Inside the ugly relationship between Islamism and the Left
Barely an hour after Zarah Sultana announced that she was leaving Labour to lead a new Left-wing party with Jeremy Corbyn, the Muslim Engagement and Development (Mend) campaign group posted a statement on X wishing the pair 'every success in this bold new chapter'. Labour refused to engage with Mend after Sir Keir Starmer took over as leader, and cut the party's ties with groups accused of links to Islamism. In his official review of the Prevent anti-extremism programme in 2023, Sir William Shawcross described Mend as an 'Islamist organisation' and, before becoming Met Commissioner, Sir Mark Rowley highlighted the group's alarmist opposition to British counter-extremism measures. Wishing @zarahsultana and @jeremycorbyn every success in this bold new chapter. At a time when so many feel politically voiceless, your continued commitment to justice, equality, and grassroots representation is inspiring. We look forward to seeing positive change flourish. — MEND Community (@mendcommunity) July 3, 2025 Sultana, however, might take a different view. Although there is no suggestion that she holds Islamist views, before becoming an MP she worked as Mend's parliamentary officer. She has also claimed that the phrase 'Islamist' is used to smear pro-Palestine activists as 'violent and extreme'. Like Mend, she has been deeply critical of Prevent, describing it as 'racist'. Like Sultana, Mend insists that Israel is carrying out a 'genocide' in Gaza – an issue that Sultana's statement says will be a focus of her new party. Sultana and Corbyn's venture (although Corbyn has yet to publicly confirm his ally's statement) appears to herald a new dawn in the decades-long relationship between the far-Left and Islamism, which has been flourishing amid the war in Gaza like never before. It is perhaps fitting that the announcement should come in the week after tens of thousands of festival-goers at Glastonbury joined in with a chant of 'death to the IDF' that would not have sounded out of place at a parade of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, or a Hamas rally. Many may also have been among the crowd at Glastonbury eight years earlier, when Corbyn was welcomed on stage to a chant of 'Oh, Jeremy Corbyn'. The political alliance highlighted by Mend's support for Sultana and Corbyn's new party, and the seeping of Islamist narratives and slogans into progressive protest, are the culmination of a long marriage of convenience between Islamism and the hard-Left, based on a shared sense of grievance and cynical opportunism. The Left hopes to harness the fervour of anti-Western sentiment among radicalised Muslims, while Islamism benefits from the warm glow of the more acceptable face of progressives who exert influence over culture and politics. Rakib Ehsan, the British Muslim academic and author, says: 'The hard-Left and Islamism are tied by grievance politics and, in the darker circles of their intersection, anti-Semitism is rife – especially the classic tropes about global power, influence and control. That is shared by both sides, along with sympathies with foreign regimes which are hostile to so-called Western interests.' Broadly speaking, Islamism relates to groups espousing 'political Islam', by stressing that religion should determine how society is governed. These groups tend to have close links to, or show support for, far-Left organisations such as Palestine Action and Stop The War. 'Islamist organisations are gradualists,' says Lord Walney, the former Labour MP and adviser to the Government on political violence and disruption. 'They believe that, ultimately, we should live under Islamic rule, but they realise that that's not going to happen soon, so they will pick out building blocks – such as blasphemy laws – to keep moving the dial.' The effort to shape Britain's approach to the Gaza conflict appears to have become one of those building blocks. Now, the alliance is stronger than ever, with Islamists and the far-Left joining forces to influence government policy, with demands to end arms sales to Israel, and opposition to the Government's plans to ban the radical protest group, Palestine Action. If you wanted a family portrait of this idiosyncratic partnership, it would be hard to beat the sight of pink-haired protestors in the capital effectively cheering for the mullahs of the Iranian regime, claiming to be on the 'right side of history' – with clerics who execute homosexuals, torture opponents and systematically oppress women. Soviet origins Fifty years ago, much of the far-Left was inspired by the Soviet Union's Middle East propaganda, a pro-Islamist stance in response to US and European support for Israel. That influenced Left-wing groups in the UK – such as the Communist Party of Great Britain and the Revolutionary Communist Group – who identified Arabs as oppressed, while Israel, then as now, was seen as an illegitimate 'white' state. But the far-Left remains a politically insignificant force on its own. Part of the motivation for an alliance with Islamism is to harness the power of others for their own ends – which, of course, works both ways. This is neatly illustrated in a 1994 article by Chris Harman of the Socialist Workers Party (SWP) for International Socialism, ' The Prophet and the Proletariat ', which advocated for a pragmatic working relationship between Islamists and revolutionary socialists. Harman is open about the areas of opposition between the two groups – over the role of women, for example – but concludes: 'On some issues we will find ourselves on the same side as the Islamists against imperialism and the state… It should be true in countries like France or Britain... Where the Islamists are in opposition, our rule should be, 'with the Islamists sometimes, with the state never'.' In Britain, where Islamism only speaks for a fraction of the country's Muslims, the Labour party remained a natural home for many Muslim voters up to Tony Blair's premiership. 'To put it crudely, community leaders were able to 'deliver' votes for Labour from within those communities in certain areas such as Birmingham or Bradford,' says Timothy Peace, a senior lecturer in politics and international relations at the University of Glasgow. 'From the 1980s, Muslims themselves began to enter local councils, but the closeness with Labour continued up to the late 1990s.' This began to break down thanks to the wars in Iraq (2003-2011) and Afghanistan (2001-2021). The establishment of the Stop The War Coalition (STWC) in 2001 was a milestone which provided Corbyn and other prominent Leftists with a forum to connect with groups such as the Muslim Association of Britain (MAB). Last year, the then Communities Secretary, Michael Gove, alleged in Parliament that the MAB, together with Mend and Cage, which campaigns against counter-terror measures, 'give rise to concern for their Islamist orientation and views'. All three groups rejected the label, with Mend's chief executive Azhar Qayum saying his organisation was 'not at all' extremist, Cage pledging to 'explore all avenues, including legal' to challenge the 'government's deep dive into authoritarianism', and the MAB accusing Gove of a 'blatant effort to stifle dissenting voices'. Britain's action in Iraq and elsewhere gave overtly Islamist groups an opportunity to tap into the concept of the 'Ummah' – the worldwide Islamic community. Shawcross's review warned that key Islamist narratives included, 'commanding that [their interpretation of] the Islamic faith is placed at the centre of an individual's identity, and must govern all social and political decision-making'. At the same time, a definition of Islamophobia proposed by some MPs and backed by bodies such as Mend and the MAB would prohibit anyone from 'accusing Muslim citizens of being more loyal to the 'Ummah'… than to the interests of their own nations', raising concerns about potential limits on freedom of speech. 'The MAB were tied to political Islam and found inspiration from the Muslim Brotherhood, a powerful organisation in Arab countries,' says Peace. 'The MAB were one of the key organisations in Stop the War, even though they were not very big at the time it began. The driving force were the Socialist Workers Party, and they managed to mobilise large numbers of Muslim protesters, and that overruled any ideological divisions between the two groups.' The MAB has said it is 'a British organisation operating entirely within the British Isles, with no presence elsewhere. It is not an affiliate of the Muslim Brotherhood nor a member'. Respect Party A 2004 poll revealed Labour's support among Muslim voters had halved from its high watermark of around 80 per cent. The Lib Dems specifically targeted Muslim voters with an anti-war agenda at the general election a year later, which paid off most notably in Rochdale. Labour's Lorna Fitzsimons was unseated amid claims of anti-Semitism in campaign leaflets produced by a group called the Muslim Public Affairs Committee UK, which advocated for the Lib Dems, and later apologised for the pamphlets. More significant was George Galloway's victory in Bethnal Green and Bow in east London over Labour's Oona King in 2005. Galloway, expelled from Labour in 2003 and a long-standing anti-Zionist, assumed a leadership role in the nascent Respect Party, described in The Observer as an, 'alliance... between the Trotskyist far-Left and the Islamic far-Right'. In 2010, the Channel 4 series Dispatches alleged that the Islamic Forum of Europe, which sought to change 'the very infrastructure of society... from ignorance to Islam', had been campaigning for Respect. Galloway described the documentary as 'a dirty little programme'. 'Even though far-Left figures were involved, Muslim voters were driving Respect because the Left have never been able to mobilise large numbers of voters alone,' says Peace. In the years between 2005 and 2023, the links between the Left and Islamism were largely built on an antipathy for counter-terrorism measures such as Prevent, which it was claimed put unfair emphasis on the role of Muslims in extremism, thus contributing to Islamophobia. In his 2021 report for the Policy Exchange think tank, Islamism And The Left, Britain's former ambassador to Saudi Arabia, Sir John Jenkins, wrote: 'Following the introduction of legislation by David Cameron's Government that put Prevent on a statutory footing, the Islamist-aligned campaign groups Cage and Mend, and the Stand Up To Racism network, allegedly linked to the Socialist Workers Party, formed a particularly close alliance. 'Throughout 2016 and 2017, individuals representing Mend spoke at Stand Up To Racism events across the country. Some of these events were attended by prominent Labour figures such as... Jeremy Corbyn.' Corbyn, now 76, is in many ways, along with Galloway, the great continuity figure in the relationship between the Left and Muslim political activism, stretching back through his campaigning over 50 years. Gaza war Within eight hours of the attack by Hamas on Oct 7 2023, the Met Police received its first request for a national demonstration against Israel. That first march took place on Oct 14, and carried an 'end apartheid' message, supported by the SWP, the Friends of Al-Aqsa (FOA) and the MAB. Corbyn addressed the rally, saying, 'You must condemn what is happening now in Gaza by the Israeli army.' Although Islamism only speaks for a minority of Muslims, the Gaza war has confirmed that support for Palestine (and animosity to Israel) is widespread within Britain's Muslim communities. Central to the pro-Palestinian protests ever since October 2023 have been the SWP working alongside, among others, the Palestine Solidarity Campaign (PSC), the Left-wing group run by Ben Jamal, the son of a Palestinian Anglican vicar, and the MAB. The latest Stop The War posters display the SWP logo alongside those of the PSC, MAB, Mend and the Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament, among others. 'Palestine does rank differently in terms of its importance to Muslims,' says Ehsan. 'Some might think, 'Why is this MP talking about Gaza so much?', but you'll find that they are representing the views of their Muslim constituents.' Galloway was re-elected to Parliament in the Rochdale by-election of 2024, having stood for the Workers Party of Britain in opposition to Israel. Labour withdrew support for its own candidate Azhar Ali, who apologised following reports that he claimed Israel had 'allowed' the Hamas attack, leaving Galloway to secure 40 per cent of the vote and proclaim: 'Keir Starmer, this is for Gaza.' Ehsan says that 'when it comes to Israel and Palestine, many British Muslims are emotionally invested. In their eyes, this is their brothers and sisters suffering at the hands of a Jewish-supremacist regime. They also feel they live in a country that doesn't recognise Palestine – there is a sense of betrayal.' 2024 elections The moment the Green councillor Mothin Ali chanted 'Allahu Akbar!' in his victory rally in Leeds last May signalled something had changed in British politics. Ali later apologised for past comments on Israel, which included posting on Oct 7 that 'White supremacist European settler colonialism must end.' But the preponderance of Gaza as a central issue in areas with large numbers of Muslim voters was evident in both the general and local elections. Leane Mohamad almost unseated Wes Streeting by campaigning on Gaza in the Health Secretary's Ilford North constituency in 2024, losing by only 528 votes, and claiming more than 32 per cent of the vote from a standing start. This pattern was replicated across the country at the general election, and though Mohamad fell just short, four other independent candidates were able to defeat Labour opponents in areas with significant Muslim populations. Several more pushed prominent Labour figures – including Jess Phillips in Birmingham Yardley – to within an inch of defeat. Shockat Adam, Adnan Hussain, Iqbal Mohamed and Ayoub Khan then joined Corbyn (who else?) to form a new 'Independent Alliance' of MPs. The logo of this faction features green, white and black arrows on a red base, conveying the colours of the Palestinian flag. There is no suggestion that any of these MPs are Islamists. What their election does show is that many Muslims are prepared to vote en masse for candidates on the single issue of Gaza. That in itself is a noteworthy, novel development in British politics. 'Pro-Palestine candidates now know they can win without a mainstream party,' says Ehsan. 'That is the future. We are now in a totally different political environment.' Anti-Zionist 'takeover' of the Greens Last month, Ali shared a post supporting Palestine Action that altered the words to William Blake's poem, Jerusalem. It ended with the line: 'Till we have built Jerusalem in Palestine's green and pleasant land'. The words, turned into the famous hymn of England, had been rewritten in support of the group alleged to have broken into RAF Brize Norton base and damaged Typhoon fighter jets. Ali rose to further prominence last summer when he was filmed advocating for the protection of Muslims during the riots in the aftermath of the Southport murders. Now he is standing to become the Green Party's deputy leader. His success highlights how the Greens are attracting both far-Left figures and some Muslim politicians who, while not linked to Islamism, have espoused extreme views. It will also become a test case of whether that partnership can last. During the election, the party endorsed half a dozen candidates who allegedly shared 'anti-Semitic' slurs, conspiracy theories or offensive comments online. It went on to enjoy its best-ever general election results, winning nearly two million votes, including four seats in the Commons. Muslim support was crucial to the victory in Bristol Central, where there is a large Somali community. 'The Greens aren't just ripe for takeover – they have been taken over,' says Lord Walney. Corbyn's former advisor Matt Zarb-Cousin has recently joined. 'Some of the ant-Zionist rhetoric in Green activism is absolutely toxic,' adds Lord Walney. 'I don't think they have any interest in tackling that because they want to be an influential voice and capture that alternative Left, and to be in that space you need to be vehemently anti-Israel – that reflects the Islamist point of view as well.' A Green Party spokesperson declined to comment on Ali or the findings of any investigation into his conduct, but told The Telegraph: 'People join because they are passionate about human rights, ending systemic racism, and stopping climate change. In joining, members also agree to abide by our Code of Conduct.' Another test case when it comes to the partnership between some Muslims and the far-Left over Gaza, will be the recent takeover of Tribune, the Left-wing publication for which George Orwell used to be a columnist, by the founder of the Islam Channel, which repeatedly accuses Israel of a genocide in Gaza, and was fined £40,000 by Ofcom over 'serious and repeated breaches' of broadcasting rules which 'amounted to hate speech against Jewish people'. Former Tribune editor Paul Anderson said it was 'one of the weirdest things to have happened in the history of British media. The link probably comes from the Jeremy Corbyn factor, that Islamic hard-Left alliance.' Taking an ugly turn Beyond Gaza, Islamist groups and the far-Left have come together to support a new definition of Islamophobia, which has been rejected by previous governments as being too vulnerable to influence from extremists. Critics believe the proposed definition, which is also supported by many moderate Muslims, is so expansive that it could threaten free speech, act as a de facto blasphemy law, and stifle legitimate criticism of Islam as a religion. To Lord Walney, the convergence over the definition speaks to a recurring theme of the far-Left's alliance with Islamists. The relationship gives figures such as Corbyn cover for some distinctly unprogressive views. 'The hard-Left's strange attraction to Islamism reflects their tolerance for authoritarianism,' says Lord Walney. 'British politics is potentially taking a really ugly turn.'
