Texas redistricting: Making sense of the high-stakes fight that could decide who controls Congress

Yahoo

2 days ago

Republicans in the Texas Legislature released their proposal Wednesday for new congressional districts in the state that could provide the GOP with five more seats in the House of Representatives if it's approved in time for next year's midterm elections. The move is the latest step in a high-stakes fight taking place across the country as both parties consider using every possible tool at their disposal to tilt legislative maps in their favor.
What's happening
The decision of how many House members each state gets is made at the federal level, but it's the states themselves that choose how to carve up their territory into their allotted number of districts.
There is a long history of parties using this process to draw maps that give them an advantage, often by slicing opposition's electoral strongholds into small pieces or by cramming them all into one district so seats elsewhere in the state are safe. This practice, known as gerrymandering, has become increasingly common in recent years. That's especially true in Republican-led states.
Even in the context of recent gerrymandering, what Texas Republicans are trying to do is remarkable for both its timing and the aggressiveness of the partisan slant in its proposed map. States usually redraw their districts every 10 years, after the new census determines where House districts will be apportioned. The Texas GOP have opted to create new maps just five years after the state's last round of redistricting so they will place ahead of the midterms, when Democrats would only need to pick up a few seats to seize control of the House.
Republicans currently control 25 of Texas's 38 congressional districts. The new map puts them in position to hold 30 House seats after next year, which would give them 80% of the state's representation in Congress in a state where President Trump secured 56% of the vote in last year's presidential race, according to the official tally from the Texas Secretary of State.
Will other GOP states follow Texas's lead?
Ohio has unique laws that require the state to redraw its maps before 2026. The GOP currently controls 10 of Ohio's 15 districts. Members of the state GOP are reportedly debating how partisan they should be in putting together their new maps. Depending on how aggressively they gerrymander the new map, Republicans could give themselves two or even three more House seats. In the most extreme case, Democrats could be left with just two congressional seats in a state where Kamala Harris received 44% of the vote in 2024.
President Trump has also reportedly encouraged Missouri Republicans to redraw their maps. They already hold six of the state's eight congressional seats, but a plan to split a safe Democratic district in Kansas City could secure an additional seat for the GOP.
So far there hasn't been any real redistricting action in other red states, but experts say the maps in states like Florida, Nebraska, Kansas and Nebraska could be carved up to give Republicans more advantages if there's the political will to do so.
What are the stakes?
With Republicans fully in control of both houses of Congress, Democrats have been largely unable to stand in the way of Trump's agenda. That could change if they gain a majority in either chamber. Flipping the Senate appears unlikely, but early forecasters are giving Democrats strong odds of taking over the House. If they do, Democrats would effectively have veto power over any legislation Trump and the GOP want to pass. They would also have new oversight authority and the ability to launch investigations into the president's actions and hold public hearings on the most controversial moves taken by his administration.
The partisan split in the House has been incredibly thin in recent years, in part because gerrymandering has reduced the number of genuinely competitive seats across the country. Republicans adding five seats in Texas, two in Ohio plus possibly a few more in other states could prove to be the difference between holding onto the House or having Democrats be in charge for the final two years of Trump's second term.
Democrats threaten to go 'nuclear'
Blue state Democrats have made a lot of noise about countering the GOP's redistricting gambit, but experts say the tools they have to actually do that are limited.
'We can sit on the sidelines, talk about the way the world should be,' California Gov. Gavin Newsom said earlier this month. 'Or we can recognize the existential nature that is this moment.'
Newsom has said he will push to have deep-blue California redraw its own maps to balance out any gains the GOP makes from redistricting in Texas or elsewhere. Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker and New York Gov. Kathy Hochul have made similar statements.
Democrats in Congress have also said they're willing to consider any options to prevent Republicans from using redistricting to maintain control of the House.
'If they're going to go nuclear in Texas, I'm going to go nuclear in other places,' Democratic Sen. Elissa Slotkin told Axios earlier this month.
Despite their strong rhetoric, Democrats would face significant hurdles if they wanted to match the GOP tit-for-tat in redistricting. California, a deep-blue state with 14 more congressional seats than any other state, might seem like the obvious place for Democrats to pick up more seats. But congressional districts in the Golden State are currently drawn by an independent commission, not the state Legislature. To get that power back, lawmakers would have to hold a special election and convince California voters to overturn the state's redistricting system.
New York also has an independent redistricting commission. Democratic lawmakers unveiled a bill Wednesday that would give them authority over the state's maps again, but it would have to go through a lengthy process that would make it next to impossible for the new districts to be in place by next year's midterms.
Lawmakers do control redistricting in Illinois, but the state only has three GOP-held districts, which significantly limits the gains Democrats could make there.