Airbnb Soars as Q4 Profits, Bookings Surge; Baird, Goldman Sachs Upgrade Outlook
A double-digit increase in bookings and revenue helped Airbnb (NASDAQ:ABNB) turn a profit in Q4, pushing shares up 14.64% to $161.70 as of 12:00:45 ET on Friday, marking their highest level in nine months.
The company reported Q4 GAAP EPS of $0.73, beating expectations by $0.15, while revenue climbed 11.7% year-over-year to $2.48 billion, surpassing estimates by $60 million. Growth was fueled by a 12% increase in Nights and Experiences Booked, alongside a modest rise in Average Daily Rate (ADR). Gross booking value reached $17.6 billion, while Adjusted EBITDA came in at $765 million, with a 31% margin.
Warning! GuruFocus has detected 2 Warning Sign with ABNB.
With its core business strengthened, Airbnb is now set for broader marketplace monetization and accelerated growth in late 2025 and 2026, according to Baird analyst Colin Sebastian. The firm upgraded the stock to Outperform/Speculative Risk from Neutral and raised its price target to $175, a 25% increase. Airbnb expects Q1 2025 revenue between $2.23 billion and $2.27 billion, reflecting 4-6% growth year-over-year. Excluding foreign exchange impacts, revenue growth would be 7-9%.
Since going public in 2020, Airbnb's gross booking values have tripled, outpacing the broader travel sector. The company plans to maintain momentum through global expansion, new service offerings, and a more flexible payment system that makes hosting and managing properties easier. Additionally, new business ventures launching in May are expected to impact quarterly adjusted EBITDA throughout 2025, according to CFO Ellie Mertz.
Goldman Sachs also upgraded Airbnb from Sell to Neutral, with analyst Eric Sheridan raising revenue estimates by 1-2% and adjusted EBITDA projections by 4-5% for 2025 and 2026. While new initiatives may take time to gain visibility, Sheridan sees less risk of earnings revisions negatively impacting shares. Taking into account Airbnb's global expansion, platform improvements, and its strategy to launch one to two new businesses per year, Sheridan believes the company is well-positioned for long-term organic and new market growth.
This article first appeared on GuruFocus.
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