Black market brew: Sudan conflict reshapes Kenya tea exports

Zawya

21-03-2025

Sudan's ongoing war now poses a greater risk of increased smuggling in the region, depriving Khartoum of the revenue it needs from formal businesses.
This week, the Sudanese Armed Forces have stepped up the pace of retaking Khartoum from the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). But the wider danger of the war, now in its third year, is how it could affect formal trade with countries such as Kenya, which has traditionally sent the most tea to Khartoum of any country in the Horn of Africa.
Sudan had already banned Kenyan goods in protest at Nairobi's decision to host meetings of the RSF and allied movements in Kenya, accusing Nairobi of political interference.
But stakeholders said Kenya's tea could still be smuggled in, given that various warring factions now control the country.'With the ban of Sudan to trade tea with Kenya, we are likely to witness increased smuggling of tea as Kenyan tea quality has remained ranked as one of the best high quality beverages in the world,' said George Omuga, CEO of East Africa Tea Trade Association (EATTA).'According to our data there has been an increase of tea uptake by South Sudan and United Arab Emirates (UAE) raising suspicion of some dealers taking advantage of the situation to sneak tea in those countries. As an association, we have no control of such business as the increase of tea demand from us is good for our export numbers, but we might lose the Kenyan tea brand.'During the war, Kenya's official tea exports to Sudan had been declining long before last week's ban. In the past year, tea exports to Sudan fell by 12 percent from 12,034,300 kilos to 10,567,780 kilos due to the conflict, according to the Tea Board of Kenya (TBK), with tea traders worried that Kenya could lose its brand to smugglers.
Mr Omuga said conflict-affected countries continued to buy little at the auction, while their neighbours saw a significant increase in demand for tea.
The UAE bought 30.50 million kilos worth $78,901,329 in 2024. South Sudan is also growing rapidly as an emerging market for Kenyan tea.
TBK's Kenya Tea Industry Performance Report 2024 shows improved exports to other traditional and emerging markets such as Kazakhstan, Somalia, Switzerland, Oman, Nigeria, Ukraine, Sri Lanka, US, Germany, South Africa and Japan.
Mutahi Kagwe, the Cabinet Secretary for Agriculture, said that despite the conflicts in key markets, local people in the affected countries had maintained demand.'[In] Sudan, Iran, Iraq, Pakistan and Chad, the tea markets would be further affected this year if the conflicts are not resolved. We need to find means to get back the market and this we are doing diplomatically,' said Mr Kagwe.
Sudan is one of the top 10 markets for Kenyan tea and the standoff could mean a drop in exports to Sudan, affecting trade.
The report indentifies Chad as a significant emerging market for direct imports from Kenya. Prior to the conflict in Sudan, Chad, a landlocked country, received its imports, including tea, from Sudan.'Due to the blockage of trade routes from Sudan, Chad has now shifted to Nigeria and Cameroon as alternative import transshipment routes,' the report says.
Due to its quality, Kenyan tea has been in demand, with the top ten export destinations, most of which are traditional markets for Kenyan tea, accounting for 81 percent of the commodity's export volume.
Compared to 2023, more exports were recorded in traditional markets, with Egypt recording the highest increase in export volume at 21.01 million kilos. India had the second highest increase at 11.86 million kilos, followed by the UK at 11.29 million kilos.
With the return of attacks by Yemen's Houthi militants in the Red Sea, tea traders expect further delays in the shipment of their teas, which could affect future business.
Shipping lines are suspending their operations through the route and reverting to an alternative transshipment route at the southern tip of Africa, which takes much longer and costs more from the port of Mombasa.
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