BLS Data White Men's Employment Opportunities Declining In Recent Months

Forbes

2 days ago

White men's employment opportunities have declined.
Monthly unemployment data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) show that white men have seen a worse erosion of employment opportunities than white women and Black men, in the recent labor force decline. White men's unemployment rate has risen faster and their employment rate has fallen more than was the case for their counterparts since January 2025, when Donald Trump took office. This disproportionate weakness of the labor market for white men is likely due to troubles associated with Trump's economic policy chaos in sectors where many white men work.
The unemployment rate for white men 16 years old and older has risen faster since January 2025 than for some comparable groups. The overall unemployment rate for people 16 years old and older rose by 0.2 pct. pt. from 4.0% in January 2025 to 4.2% in May 2025. White men's unemployment grew from 3.4% to 4.0% during that time — a 0.6 pct. pt. increase. This is slightly smaller than the jump of 0.5 pct. pt. for White men 20 years old and older that the BLS reports in its monthly data tables, but it does not distract from the overall point that white men's unemployment rate has increased. Moreover, the BLS reports the overall unemployment for people 16 years old and older, making this the proper comparison group for white men and other population groups here. For example, the unemployment rate for white women 16 years old and older fell slightly by 0.1 pct. from 3.7% to 3.6% and the unemployment rate for Black men dropped by 1.4 pct. pt. from 7.1% to 5.7% during the same period. Black men still have a harder time to find a job than is the case for white men. But, their opportunities to find a new jobs have improved, while they worsened for white men.
Changes in the unemployment rates for white men reflect fewer employment opportunities. Calculations based on the BLS' Current Population Survey (CPS) further show that the employment-to-population ratio for white men has fallen by 0.7 pct. pt. from 65.6% in January 2025 to 64.9% in May 2025. This may not seem much, but using the relevant employment numbers and employment-to-population ratios for January and May 2025, a simple calculation shows that there were 716,000 fewer employed white men than would have been if the employment-to-population ratio has stayed at the same level in May 2025 as it was in January 2025. In comparison, the employment-to-population rate for white women 16 years old and older declined by less – 0.3 pct. pt. from 54.7% to 54.4% — while the one for Black men actually increased by 0.5 pct. pt. from 60.9% in January 2025 to 61.4% in May 2025. In combination with rising unemployment rates, the faster drop of the employment-to-population ratio for white men suggests that their employment opportunities have declined.
Declining employment for white people is often associated with an aging population. This requires breaking down the data by age groups. Averaging over four-month periods is necessary here since not all publicly available BLS data series broken down by age are seasonally adjusted. The unemployment rate for white men overall was 0.2 pct. pt. higher from February to May 2025 than in the prior four months – from October 2024 to January 2025. Comparing the same time periods for white men between the ages of 25 and 54 years old – so-called prime earnings years – shows no change in the unemployment rate, but an increase of 0.2 pct. pt. in the unemployment rate for white men aged 55 to 64 years old. That would suggest more problems for older White men, just as the population is aging.
Yet, aging alone cannot explain the challenges that white men face. The same calculations for white women show that the unemployment rate for prime age women – from 25 years to 54 years – fell by 0.5 percentage points from an average of 3.8% to an average rate of 3.3% during the same time periods. The opportunities for finding a job have increased for white women in their prime earnings years, while those for white men have stayed the same.
Other explanations for the declining employment opportunities for white men could lie in troubles in some industries that employ more white men than white women, for example. Data from the BLS' Current Employment Statistics (CES) show that manufacturing employment, which tends to be male dominated according to the CPS, has gradually decline in recent months. In a similar vein, transportation employment, such as trucking — another male-dominated industry, according to the CPS. It is also possible that white men's employment in some parts of the financial service industry such as commercial banking, which has been flat for about year, could have been hurt, although financial services are about equally split between men and women, based on data from the CPS.
The declining employment opportunities for many white men follow to some degree from the chaotic economic policies of the Trump administration. The sectoral changes go along with a slowing economy which has followed from heightened economic uncertainty. In particular, more uncertainty leads people to pull back on spending for durable goods such as cars. And, it has kept interest rates high, making taking out loans less attractive for people and businesses. Unlike in previous times, a slowing economy this time around more impacts white men more negatively than women or Black men.