Southeast Asia's Uneven Tourism Recovery, Explained

The Diplomat

3 days ago

If we look back to the time before the COVID-19 pandemic brought international travel to a halt, tourism across Southeast Asia was absolutely booming. The six major markets (Singapore, Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia) attracted more than 127 million foreign tourists in 2019. Of these, Thailand was far and away the leader with nearly 40 million.
Two years later, during the thick of global lockdowns, the figure dropped to 2.6 million. Since then, tourism in the region has been on a slow road to recovery, but even now has yet to regain those 2019 pre-pandemic heights. In 2024, the same six markets combined for 114 million tourist visits, roughly 89 percent of 2019 levels. And there are indications that the recovery is slowing, especially in certain markets.
The Philippines has consistently struggled to attract visitors since the pandemic. The country was not a huge tourism draw to begin with, bringing in around 8 million visitors in 2019, even when the region as a whole was booming. Last year, inbound travelers were clocked at 5.4 million, just 66 percent of their pre-pandemic level.
Thailand remains the regional leader with 35.5 million inbound tourists in 2024. But despite the big headline figure, the outlook is not great. As of June 2025, arrivals were roughly 5 percent lower than they were at the same time last year. That means unless it finishes the year with a big surge, Thailand is currently on pace to see fewer tourists than it did in 2024. At this rate, surpassing the pre-pandemic threshold of 40 million could take a while.
Other markets are seeing more sustained recoveries, though they still fall short of pre-pandemic levels. Singapore is currently on track to slightly improve from the 16.5 million tourists who arrived in 2024. And Indonesia continues to see a steady recovery, with 13.9 million arrivals in 2024. As of June 2025, this was 9 percent ahead of last year's pace and the country looks set to exceed 14 million arrivals this year. To put that into perspective, 14 million was the number of tourists that visited Indonesia in 2017, a full eight years ago.
Malaysia is almost back to pre-pandemic numbers with 25 million tourist arrivals in 2024, just below the 26 million they saw in 2019. If we include excursionists (visitors who come for the day but don't spend the night), that figure jumps up to 38 million, meaning Malaysia is actually ahead of Thailand in raw visitor traffic. But Malaysia is a bit of a special case in this regard, as many Singaporeans cross the border during the day for a variety of reasons (work, day trips, etc), but aren't really what we have in mind when talking about international tourist flows.
Finally, Vietnam is a very interesting story to watch here. Before COVID-19, Vietnam saw 18 million inbound tourists. Last year, it was at 17.5 million, 98 percent of the pre-pandemic level. As of June 2025, more than 10 million tourists had entered the country, putting the country on pace to blow past the 2019 figure. Remarkably, this boom is being driven primarily by two countries: South Korea and China. Together they accounted for 8.3 million, or just under half, of all visitors last year.
Clearly, there is substantial variation in terms of the pace and drivers of tourism recovery across the region. Some markets are bouncing back strongly, others more slowly. Making sense of this is complicated by the fact that tourism plays a different role in each national economy.
For economies that are heavily reliant on exports, like Thailand and Vietnam, a strong recovery in tourism (which is a service export) is essential for economic stability. Even though Thailand is posting big headline figures of around 35 million arrivals, the fact that visitor numbers still haven't reached 2019 levels and seem to be weakening is not good news, given the challenges facing the Thai economy right now. Vietnam, meanwhile, appears to be rapidly catching up as the region's next big powerhouse exporter, not just of goods but also of services.
For Indonesia, a modest recovery that takes a long time to return to 2019 levels could potentially be a good thing. Inbound tourism in Indonesia is heavily concentrated in and around Bali, and is linked to a range of problems like resource depletion, over-development, pollution and so forth.
A more measured recovery allows time, if used wisely, for the industry to adjust to the influx of visitors and the strains that come with it. The breakneck pace of tourism growth in Vietnam, on the other hand, while good for the country's export-led style of economic development, will place considerable pressure on businesses, regulators and planners to keep up.