Southeast Asia Survey Shows Increased Trust in the U.S.

Yahoo

04-04-2025

A worker cleans the carpet next to national flags ahead of the ASEAN Foreign Ministers' retreat meeting at the Langkawi International Convention Centre in Malaysia on Jan. 17, 2025. Credit - Mohd Rasfan—AFP/Getty Images
Southeast Asians expressed an increased level of trust in the U.S.—and more said they would align themselves with the U.S. over China if forced to choose, a reverse of last year's aggregated results—according to the latest State of Southeast Asia Survey Report by the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, a Singapore-based think tank, published Thursday.
That was, however, before President Donald Trump unveiled a slate of new tariffs yesterday that hit the region hard. Experts caution that results could look different if polled today.
Read More: 'Inflation Day Rather Than Liberation Day': How the World Is Reacting to Trump's Latest Tariffs
The survey took place between Jan. 3 and Feb. 15, overlapping with Trump's inauguration on Jan. 20. 2,023 respondents across 11 Southeast Asian countries—the 10 ASEAN member states and Timor-Leste—were asked 'How confident are you that [the U.S./China] will 'do the right thing' for global peace, security, prosperity, and governance?'
Across ASEAN countries, levels of trust in the U.S. increased from 42.4% last year to 47.2% this year, and levels of distrust decreased from 37.6% to 33.0%. While levels of trust in the U.S. decreased in the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam, trust in the U.S. nevertheless outweighed distrust in the U.S. in seven out of the 10 countries: Brunei, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. Singapore, Indonesia, and Malaysia were the exceptions—in all three countries, distrust in the U.S. exceeded trust. Last year, trust in the U.S. outweighed distrust in just five out of the 10 countries—Cambodia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam.
At the same time, countries' trust in China increased by 11.8 percentage points—the largest increase in trust levels of any major power—from 24.8% to 36.6% this year. Still, slightly more than half of ASEAN-10 respondents expressed more distrust than trust in China. Trust in China exceeded distrust in just four of the 10 countries—Brunei, Cambodia, Laos, and Thailand.
The annual survey includes five categories of respondents: academia, think-tankers or researchers; private sector representatives; civil society, non-government organizations or media representatives; government officials; and regional or international organizations personnel. An equal 10% weighting was given to each of the 10 ASEAN member states on the basis that they each have equal say in the association's decisions. Timor-Leste, which awaits formal admission to ASEAN, was also asked to participate in the survey for the first time, although it was not included in the aggregate ASEAN scores.
Respondents were asked about trust on a five point scale from 'no confidence,' 'little confidence,' 'no comment,' 'confident,' and 'very confident.' Distrust was calculated as the sum of 'no confidence' and 'little confidence,' while trust included 'confident' and 'very confident.'
If ASEAN were forced to align itself with either the U.S. or China, Cambodia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, and Vietnam, or 52.3% of all ASEAN-10 respondents, favored the U.S. Last year, 50.5% of ASEAN-10 respondents, or seven out of 10 countries, polled higher in favor of China for the first time since 2019. Fewer respondents in Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam, however, polled in favor of the U.S. this year as compared to last.
Read More: Is Southeast Asia Leaning More Toward China? New Survey Shows Mixed Results
The 'volatility of preferences' between China and the U.S. suggests that 'Southeast Asia is an arena for contention between Washington and Beijing despite desires 'not to choose sides' in the region,' Ja Ian Chong, associate professor of political science at the National University of Singapore and non-resident scholar with Carnegie China, tells TIME.
Chong says the Biden Administration bolstered ties in Asia, which might have contributed to U.S. standing even as countries geared up for a second Trump Administration. 'There was an assumption that a second Trump administration would look broadly similar to the first one, which was not too big a departure of traditional U.S. foreign and economic policy,' Chong says, adding that several Southeast Asian economies were boosted by the relocation of firms away from China due to the trade war during the first Trump Administration.
The swing from China back to the U.S. this year is also likely due to countries putting stock in the Trump Administration introducing 'restraint' on China, Sharon Seah, senior fellow and coordinator at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute's ASEAN Studies Center, tells TIME. Seah was one of the researchers behind the report.
Concerns over China potentially using its economic and military power to threaten countries' interests and sovereignty has been the main reason for distrusting China. That was reflected in the relatively higher distrust of China in Vietnam and the Philippines, countries that have had direct altercations with China over the disputed South China Sea—which was billed as the region's top geopolitical concern, overtaking worries about Israel's war in Gaza, which led last year.
But experts warn that the results may not reflect recent shifts in U.S. foreign policy.
Surveys tend to have a 'shelf life,' Mark S. Cogan, associate professor of peace and conflict studies at Japan's Kansai Gaidai University, tells TIME. When the survey took place, 'Trump foreign policy hadn't taken root,' Cogan says. Now, 'U.S. foreign policy is in a very, very large state of flux.'
Trump's freeze on foreign aid began in the middle of polling for the survey, but many of its effects in Southeast Asia were not seriously felt until the earthquake in Myanmar and Thailand on March 28, Seah tells TIME. Now, the 'real life impact on the ground' has become clear.
Read More: How Myanmar's Junta—and Ongoing Civil War—Complicates the Nation's Earthquake Recovery
Cogan also pointed to the gutting of demining programs in Vietnam and Cambodia that have been critical to building trust between those countries and the U.S.—trust that Cogan says has been eroded. 'The reestablishment of that relationship and the working to build trust again is going to take a very, very long time.'
Southeast Asian countries were among the hardest hit by Trump's 'reciprocal' tariffs, announced on April 2. Cambodia faces a 49% levy, Laos 48%, Vietnam 46%, Myanmar 44%, and Thailand, Indonesia, Brunei, and Malaysia all face levies of more than 20%.
Both Thailand and Vietnam have, during both the first and second Trump Administrations, tried leaning into their relationships with the U.S. But, Cogan says, as China has stepped up its investments in Southeast Asia and the U.S. applies punitive trade measures, more countries might wonder: 'What kind of incentive is there, but to seek greater insurance by engaging more robustly with China?'
'On one hand, there is opportunity, certainly for the United States to get involved,' says Cogan, but at the same time 'its foreign policy really says that it is retreating.'
Seah, however, warns it may be too soon to tell what impact Trump's latest tariffs will have, since several countries are engaging in negotiations with the U.S.
China under the leadership of President Xi Jinping is widely seen as more predictable than the U.S. under Trump, Seah tells TIME. 'Southeast Asia knows China's red lines and understands how the Chinese governance system works.' Concerns that the U.S. is 'distracted' by its internal politics and less able to engage with global issues polled as the highest reason for distrust in the power.
All major powers—the U.S., China, Japan, the European Union, and India—saw an increase in trust from Southeast Asia this year. Of these, Japan remains the most trusted, and its trust level increased from 58.9% to 66.8%. The E.U. overtook the U.S. for second most trusted, while the U.S., China and India followed in that order.
'Japan has been working with ASEAN for more than 50 years,' Seah tells TIME. Japan 'gradually built up its credibility' after WWII, and 'with the passage of time, consistent engagement with the region in trade, investments, [and] people-to-people exchanges has paid off.'
Cogan suggested the U.S. could learn from Japan's consistent and stable approach.
'Sometimes influence isn't found in the barrel of a gun,' he says. 'It's found through trust building, social cohesion, that kind of bonding, that reputation … that forms over decades and decades.'
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