Citi predicts 25% copper-specific tariff by fourth quarter
Citi further expects the Comex-LME 1-year forward premium to price an effective rate of 15%-20% until the tariff implementation is confirmed.
The bank's base case scenario also flags the possibility of earlier reciprocal tariffs emerging from the second quarter of 2025.
Get a look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets with the Morning Bid U.S. newsletter. Sign up here.
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Reuters
a minute ago
- Reuters
Switzerland could revise offer on Trump tariffs, business minister says
ZURICH, Aug 3 (Reuters) - The Swiss government is open to revising its offer to the United States in response to planned heavy tariffs, Business Minister Guy Parmelin said, as experts warned the 39% import duties announced by President Donald Trump could trigger a recession in Switzerland. Switzerland was left stunned on Friday after Trump hit the country with one of the highest tariffs in his global trade reset, with industry associations warning of tens of thousands of jobs being put at risk. The country's cabinet will hold a special meeting on Monday to discuss its next steps, with Parmelin telling broadcaster RTS that the government would move quickly before the U.S. tariffs are imposed on August 7. "We need to fully understand what happened, why the U.S. president made this decision. Once we have that on the table, we can decide how to proceed," Parmelin said. "The timeline is tight, it may be hard to achieve something by the 7th, but we'll do everything we can to show goodwill and revise our offer," he added. Parmelin said Trump was focused on the U.S. trade deficit with Switzerland, which stood at 38.5 billion Swiss francs ($48 billion) last year, with Switzerland buying U.S liquefied natural gas (LNG) among the options under consideration. Another option could be further investments by Swiss companies in the United States, Switzerland's biggest export market for its pharmaceuticals, watches and machinery. "Look at the European Union, they promised to buy LNG. Switzerland imports LNG too — maybe that's one path," Parmelin said. "Maybe more investments. But to be sure it's a strong enough basis for continuing talks, we have to fully understand what the U.S. expects." Both Parmelin and Swiss President Karin Keller-Sutter were also ready to travel to Washington to pursue talks if necessary, he added. Swiss officials rejected reports that the higher than expected tariffs were imposed after a bad-tempered telephone call between Keller-Sutter and Trump late on Thursday. "The call was not a success, there was not a good outcome for Switzerland," a government source told Reuters. "But there was not a quarrel. Trump made it clear from the very beginning that he had a completely different point of view, that 10% tariffs were not enough. "We are working hard to find a solution and are in contact with the American side," the source added. "We hope we can find a solution before August 7." Tariffs would have a huge impact on Switzerland's export-orientated economy and raised the risk of a recession, said Hans Gersbach, an economist at ETH, a university in Zurich. Swiss economic output would be reduced by 0.3% to 0.6% if the 39% tariff was imposed, a figure which could rise to above 0.7% if pharmaceuticals - which are currently not covered by the U.S. import duties - were included. Prolonged disruptions could shrink Swiss GDP by more 1%, Gersbach said. "There would be a risk of a recession," Gersbach said. Swiss shares are expected to be hit by the tariffs news when the stock market reopens on Monday after being closed during the Swiss National Day holiday on Friday. The tariffs could also see the Swiss National Bank cut interest rates in September, said Nomura. "We expect one more 25bp policy rate cut from the SNB in September, which would take the rate to -0.25%," the bank said. "A hit to growth from U.S. tariffs on exports would likely weaken economic growth and cause further deflation pressures, adding to the likelihood of easing to a negative policy rate."
Reuters
a minute ago
- Reuters
Top Trump aide accuses India of financing Russia's war in Ukraine
WASHINGTON, Aug 3 (Reuters) - A top aide to President Donald Trump on Sunday accused India of effectively financing Russia's war in Ukraine by purchasing oil from Moscow, after the U.S. leader escalated pressure on New Delhi to stop buying Russian oil. "What he (Trump) said very clearly is that it is not acceptable for India to continue financing this war by purchasing the oil from Russia," said Stephen Miller, deputy chief of staff at the White House and one of Trump's most influential aides. Miller's criticism was some of the strongest yet by the Trump administration about one of the United States' major partners in the Indo-Pacific. "People will be shocked to learn that India is basically tied with China in purchasing Russian oil. That's an astonishing fact," Miller said on Fox News' "Sunday Morning Futures." The Indian Embassy in Washington did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Indian government sources told Reuters on Saturday that New Delhi will keep purchasing oil from Moscow despite U.S. threats. A 25% tariff on Indian products went into effect on Friday as a result of its purchase of military equipment and energy from Russia. Trump has also threatened 100% tariffs on U.S. imports from countries that buy Russian oil unless Moscow reaches a major peace deal with Ukraine. Miller tempered his criticism by noting Trump's relationship with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, which he described as "tremendous."
Reuters
29 minutes ago
- Reuters
Trump, Carney to speak in coming days, Canadian official says
WASHINGTON, Aug 3 (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney will likely talk "over the next number of days" after the U.S. imposed a 35% tariff on goods not covered by the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement, a Canadian official said on Sunday. Dominic LeBlanc, the federal cabinet minister in charge of U.S.-Canada trade, also told CBS News' "Face the Nation" that he was "encouraged" by recent discussions and believed a deal to bring down tariffs remained an option. "We're encouraged by the conversations with Secretary Lutnick and Ambassador Greer, but we're not yet where we need to go to get the deal that's in the best interest of the two economies," LeBlanc said, referring to U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer. The trade minister said he expected Carney and Trump to speak "over the next number of days." "We think there is an option of striking a deal that will bring down some of these tariffs provide greater certainty to investment," LeBlanc said. Washington linked Friday's tariff announcement in part to what it said was Canada's failure to stop fentanyl smuggling. It was the latest blow in a months-long tariff war which Trump initiated shortly after returning to power this year. Carney says Canada accounts for just 1% of U.S. fentanyl imports and has been working intensively to further reduce the volumes.
